Nate Silver: The Odds Of An Electoral College-Popular Vote Split Are Increasing

[Axl Rose]

Has trump updated our odds to over 50% yet, or did winning it just push the needle to 35?

[rmt]

This election showed that you can't trust the media - so many of these polls wrong - even the exit polls. I thought all was lost for Trump from those early exit polls until FL was clinched.

[florige]

This election showed that you can't trust the media - so many of these polls wrong - even the exit polls. I thought all was lost for Trump from those early exit polls until FL was clinched.

I'm never trusting another media manipulated poll ever.

[baseline bum]

I'm never trusting another media manipulated poll ever.

Meh Silver said the polls were close, that her 3.5 point lead is a typical polling error in a presidential election, and Clinton still won the popular vote so the polls weren't too far off. Silver was right that you can't treat states as independent voting blocs in an election and thus people were nuts to say the probability of Trump picking up all his must wins was so small. It's not flipping a bunch of coins and getting heads on every one, and that's what most people seemed to treat it as.

[Spurminator]

I was scared as of Michigan. Michael Moore made a pretty strong case that Clinton was going to lose it and she did. The second I saw Virginia close I figured Michigan was going to be a toss up and if Michigan was a toss up then so were Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, and that Ohio was a complete lost cause. Nate Silver argued over and over again that those three states and Ohio had very correlated votes which made the Clinton firewall extremely fragile. Don't get me wrong, I expected a Clinton victory, but as I posted before, I didn't figure it would be a huge upset to see Trump take it.

I was in the Lansing area a few weeks ago, and while I know it's ludicrous to gauge the tone of a state based on a small region, I definitely got a weird vibe about it. I spent a lot of time in some of the more rural areas and it was total Trumpville. Most people I talked to just assumed I was a Trump supporter because I was a white male. There was no "hidden" Trump vote. It definitely didn't feel like a given to go blue.

[101A]

I guess a small silver lining in this horrible result is that at least money didn't buy the election.

Has Citizen's United been rendered obsolete, at least in Presidential politics?