Russia launches massive war games on NATO's eastern flank

[RandomGuy]

So our military never lies?

wow

That isn't an opinion as to why Russia would lie about how many troops it was moving around.

Why would Russia lie about that?

[RandomGuy]

Boots this is so old and tired.
Trump has already shown no love for Russia from a military standpoint.
In fact he is more likely to counter Russian moves or even provoke them IMO.
He already has.

But then, predicting what Trump will, or won't do is sort of a mugs game. He never fails to do the stupidest possible, just when you think he can't be dumber.

The thing about a good theory though, it that it both explains facts, and you can make testable predictions.

Fact 1:
Russia attempted to hack our electoral process through a multi-pronged attack.

Fact 2:
Donald "look how big my inauguration crowd was" Trump has done nothing but deny this even happened. He has shown no willingness whatsoever to hold Russia to account for anything.

Fact 3:
Donald Trump has a pattern of criticizing anyone, and everyone at the drop of a hat. Allies, enemies, courts, free press, nothing has escaped his remarks and twitter feed, except for ONE/(two) thing(s), and that is Russia/Putin

Fact 4:
Russian efforts appeared designed to support Trump

Fact 5:
Trump directly called on Russia publicly to support his efforts to get elected.

Fact 6:
Donald Trump has gone out of his way to meet and talk with Putin privately in person, with no American witnesses. This is the only leader with which he has acted in this manner.

Fact 7:
Donald Trump, when forced to sign a bipartisan sanctions bill passed with a veto-proof majority of both houses of Congress, issued a signing statement saying most of it was uncons utional, and that his administration would enforce it as little as possible.


Theory:
Donald Trump has been compromised in some way. Either he directly owes them money, or they have evidence of some kind of him breaking the law or doing something he does not want others to know about.

This theory explains those facts, and is fully consistent with observed reality.

Prediction:
Donald Trump will take no action personally, nor will he criticize Russia or Putin in any way in regards to the Russian attack on our elections. He may allow his underlings to do some minor, inconsequential stuff, and if forced to do anything by Congress will drag his feet, if not outright attempt to veto any sanctions.


The way to falsify the theory:
1) Trump criticizes Putin/Russia (good)
2) Trump orders/takes action that materially harms Russian interests (definitive)

Bull conspiracy theories fail very often because either: they cannot be falsified, or they directly conflict with observed reality. This theory can be falsified, and does not conflict with what we know as fact.

Donald Trump is unpredictable except for Russia

This is a good test of my theory.

It predicts that Trump will not do anything, nor will he criticize Putin.

Trump has not countered anything Putin has done. He has let the state department do some trivial things in cutting back staff, and that is it.

Don't forget how he thanked Putin for the opportunity to cut staff and save money.

[RandomGuy]

J
Yeah but God forbid Russia lies about the number of trrops in their drills within their country which are open to the public btw

The war games were not inside Russia, nor were they "open to the public"

[RandomGuy]

Dude, we are not ending all life on the planet over some former soviet republics, and if our leaders really would do that then they need to go right now.

So you have not completed your reading. They would, and have pledged to do so for over 70 years. That threat was what kept the cold war from getting hot.

I can't learn history for you, so I will leave it at that.

[Axl Rose]

So you have not completed your reading. They would, and have pledged to do so for over 70 years. That threat was what kept the cold war from getting hot.

I can't learn history for you, so I will leave it at that.

Can you link me where our official policy says that we would respond to conventional attacks with nuclear weapons? It would be insane to nuke a country over a war drill considering we conduct them everywhere all the time. I highly highly doubt we would end the world over some ty Eastern European country. You understand that once we launch, it's all over right? We can't even shoot down fat boys missile over Japan. Both sides would be annihilated.

such a policy would only make sense if we were nuked or the homeland invaded.what you're advocating is no different than Isis.

[hater]

The war games were not inside Russia, nor were they "open to the public"

Yes they are open to any interested Nato or other legit observer

So they are open to the public

And yes the Russian soldiers will be in Russia

[spurraider21]

Yeah... The concept of MAD is one of threat and deterrence. The US isn't going to start a nuclear Armageddon over troops in Belarus

[RandomGuy]

Yes they are open to any interested Nato or other legit observer

So they are open to the public

And yes the Russian soldiers will be in Russia

(sighs heavily)

Belarus is not in Russia.

Do you need a map?

Belarus, a landlocked country in Eastern Europe, is known for its Stalinist architecture, grand fortifications and primeval forests.

[RandomGuy]

Yeah... The concept of MAD is one of threat and deterrence. The US isn't going to start a nuclear Armageddon over troops in Belarus

No, not really. Mostly because we will have observers and watch them like hawks.

The problems start when things start begin hidden from each other, such as lying about how big the troop formations will be.

[RandomGuy]

Yes they are open to any interested Nato or other legit observer

So they are open to the public

Feel free to show up and start taking pictures of Russian troop movements.

[hater]

and?

This is like US troops training in Canada

Wqke me up when Russians land in Mexico

[spurraider21]

No, not really. Mostly because we will have observers and watch them like hawks.

The problems start when things start begin hidden from each other, such as lying about how big the troop formations will be.

Still ridiculous to bring up MAD tbh

[hater]

No, not really. Mostly because we will have observers and watch them like hawks.

The problems start when things start begin hidden from each other, such as lying about how big the troop formations will be.

the wargames have not even taken place so we dont really know how many troops will be used

My advice is save your tears till after the drills and we know exactly how many troops were use

[Axl Rose]

(sighs heavily)

Belarus is not in Russia.

Do you need a map?

Don't be a dunce, Russia was invited there, it's not an illegal presence like the USA in Syria or anything. You know, violating international law and stuff. Biggest ing war criminals I've ever seen. Still to this day occupying Germany and Japan and controlling the press in Germany. Injecting our toxic suicidal genocidal ideologies of "equality" and "multiculturalism" while Muslims pour in. Just a continuation of so called "denazification" continuing to this day. Japan, Germany, Korea, Vietnam, Syria, Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, Cuba, just to name a few of the countries we've bullied. Not to mention the dozens of other countries where we build military bases. And you have the gall to speak negatively about Russia. You think you're different but you're a typical pompous arrogant 'merican just like joe bob and Cletus.

[pgardn]

This is a good test of my theory.

It predicts that Trump will not do anything, nor will he criticize Putin.

Trump has not countered anything Putin has done. He has let the state department do some trivial things in cutting back staff, and that is it.

Don't forget how he thanked Putin for the opportunity to cut staff and save money.

He could have stopped troops and military hardware to Poland.

He did NOT. This was a direct action to help a NATO member that he is supposed to hate so much.
Trump listened to his military hires. His military people set his agenda now. He totally pissed off Bannon, threw him out of the room on these matters, and then just threw him out of the WH.

He signed sanctions on Russia. He could have opposed this and got an earful, but he did NOT.

I could go on...

[RandomGuy]

He could have stopped troops and military hardware to Poland.

He did NOT. This was a direct action to help a NATO member that he is supposed to hate so much.
Trump listened to his military hires. His military people set his agenda now. He totally pissed off Bannon, threw him out of the room on these matters, and then just threw him out of the WH.

He signed sanctions on Russia. He could have opposed this and got an earful, but he did NOT.

I could go on...

Shipping troops and hardware to Poland doesn't harm Russian interests in any material way.

He signed the bill because it had veto-proof votes in both house of Congress. He had no choice. His signing statement indicated he thought much of it was uncons utional, and indicated he would instruct people not to carry it out as much as he thought he could get away with. Read the statement.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press...igning-hr-3364

Firing Bannon doesn't harm Russian interests.

[RandomGuy]

Don't be a dunce, Russia was invited there, it's not an illegal presence like the USA in Syria or anything. You know, violating international law and stuff. Biggest ing war criminals I've ever seen. Still to this day occupying Germany and Japan and controlling the press in Germany. Injecting our toxic suicidal genocidal ideologies of "equality" and "multiculturalism" while Muslims pour in. Just a continuation of so called "denazification" continuing to this day. Japan, Germany, Korea, Vietnam, Syria, Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, Cuba, just to name a few of the countries we've bullied. Not to mention the dozens of other countries where we build military bases. And you have the gall to speak negatively about Russia. You think you're different but you're a typical pompous arrogant 'merican just like joe bob and Cletus.

That was almost coherent.

Almost.

[RandomGuy]

oopsies.

[RandomGuy]

what no one saw the Russian helicopter accidentally firing a rocket into the reviewing stands?

Hope hater is ok.

[SnakeBoy]

Nah. Russia is just using the exercises to establish a permanent presence in Belarus, a client state.

Not hugely earthshattering in terms of significance. They are trying to add strategic depth, and reinforce what they view as their sphere of influence.

Another waste of money, IMO.

It does give them a modest amount of leverage, and does fit into a pattern of solidifying their position, at least in their heads.

So you're saying the thread you started is pointless