When is it expected to make landfall?
Damn I have friend that was suppose to go the Dolphins game on
Sunday. I guess that puts a hamper on things.
Where do you think they will play, or do you think they will cancel the game....
The last time this happened they played their game on a Thursday instead of Sunday.
Last edited by sa_butta; 10-19-2005 at 09:24 AM.
She went ahead and broke the record again, setting it at 881-2 (I've seen both reported). She may have gone lower than that but we won't know because there aren't any aircraft in the storm. Crazy .
I've got Priest Homes in my fantasy lineup.....this is terrible......maybe we'll see 2 games on Monday Night Footblall again.
For the sake of the people in south Florida, I hope this sucker loses some energy. At the rate this thing is growing....we could see another city washed away.
Now the records for the strongest hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin stand like this.
Wilma (2005) 882mb
Gilbert (1988) 888mb
Labor day (1935) 892mb
Allen (1980) 899mb
Katrina (2005)902mb
0.1% lower pressure for Wilma is hardly a dramatic difference.
Once you reach a hurricane of that strength it is all pretty much academic but the difference is significant in that sense.
Rita should be on that list. She reached 895 mb or thereabouts.
It will have a hard time sustaining that strength.
Sucks to be Cuba, though.
The only solace is that Wilma is a very compact storm, with hurricane-force winds extending only 15 miles from the center, but that could change over the course of a week.
Go back to Bush bashing.. cause you suck at weatherman.
Thats not really much of a solace because once she begins her NE turn, that windfield will probably quadruple in size due to the effects of the TROF.
So what you're likely to see are hurricane force winds out to 50-70 miles and tropical storm force winds as much as 3 times out that far.
You'll probably see a storm make landfall in Florda as a catagory 4 storm, but possibly 3 if she slows down enough to weaken further.
She's 4th on the list now.
Wilma
Gilbert
Labor Day Storm
Rita
Allen
Katrina
3 out of that list are from this season. There is something that has lent itself to these incredible phases of rapid intensification. I'm not sure that water tempatures aren't actually hotter than is being surmized this year.
If you go beyond those storms, you can also put Emily and Dennis into a list of storms that reached catagory 4 status. I'm convinced had those storms been a bit later in the season they would have reached cat 5 status as well. As it was, they may have but there were no planes out there to record them at their peaks. They were also incredibly strong storms for as early in the season as they developed. All things considered, that they were as strong as they were in the early summer makes them as much of a meterological oddball as any of the 3 cat 5 storms we have had this year.
any updates lately?
Where are the best (read: most reliable) sources to get updates on this? I read on another message board that the winds were down to 165 and the pressure up to 900. Wanted to confirm.
Carie
Oh, and before there are any smart-ass answers about Manny being the best source I meant web or news sources so that I don't have to contantly bother Manny
000
URNT12 KNHC 191822 CCB
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 19/18:06:20Z
B. 17 deg 24 min N
083 deg 23 min W
C. 700 mb 2149 m
D. 75 kt
E. 029 deg 008 nm
F. 111 deg 128 kt
G. 023 deg 002 nm
H. 892 mb
I. 12 C/ 3058 m
J. 20 C/ 3028 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C4
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF300 0824A WILMA OB 11 CCB
MAX FL WIND 128 KT N QUAD 18:05:40 Z
She's undergoing an EWRC so she'll weaken over the next 12 hours or so, but I suspect she'll jump back to CAT 5 status after that point.
i just hope this is the end of the hurricanes.
i know it ends on Nov 30th. but i don't think people are ready for another Cat 5 hurricane.
Oh man... I hope they are evacuating Cozumel fast. They been hit hard 2 times this year already. They just replaced almost every power pole in San Miguel.
Its looking more and more likely Cozumel is going to get hit again and that Mexico is once again going to take it on the chin. Florida may luck out, however.
Gas prices will go up.
The good thing about Cozumel is the stucco they use for most buildings (wood is a premium there) makes some strong structures. Also the east coast is mostly undeveloped. The reefs and hotel zone is on the inward west side.
This should help keep the surge dmg down I think?
Last edited by Vashner; 10-19-2005 at 05:12 PM.
Yeah, the east side will get the worst of it.
Hurricane Wilma Discussion Number 18
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on October 19, 2005
agreement among the track guidance models...which had been very good
over the past couple of days...has completely collapsed today. The
06z runs of the GFS...GFDL...and NOGAPS models accelerated Wilma
rapidly toward New England under the influence of a large low
pressure system in the Great Lakes region. All three of these
models have backed off of this solution...with the GFDL showing an
extreme change...with its 5-day position shifting a mere 1650 nmi
from its previous position in Maine to the western tip of Cuba.
There is almost as much spread in the 5-day positions of the 12z
GFS ensemble members...which range from the Yucatan to well east of
the Delmarva Peninsula. What this illustrates is the extreme
sensitivity of Wilma's future track to its interaction with the
Great Lakes low. Over the past couple of days...Wilma has been
moving slightly to the left or south of the model guidance...and
the left-most of the guidance solutions are now showing Wilma
delaying or missing the connection with the low. I have slowed the
official forecast just a little bit at this time...but if Wilma
continues to move more to the left than expected...substantial
changes to the official forecast may have to be made down the line.
Needless to say...confidence in the forecast track...especially the
timing...has decreased considerably.The latest pressure reported by the reconnaissance aircraft was 892
mb...with peak 700 mb winds of 152 kt. The initial intensity is
lowered to 140 kt. Aircraft reports...as well as microwave and
conventional satellite imagery...indicate that the inner
5-mile-wide eye of Wilma is weakening within two outer eyewalls...
one 10 miles wide and another about 45 miles across. In the short
term...this means that the peak winds should decrease as the wind
field expands...but there should be ample time for Wilma to
reintensity before it approaches the Yucatan. With an increasing
possibility that there will be a considerable interaction with the
Yucatan...I have lowered the intensity forecast slightly in the
Gulf of Mexico.
Forecaster Franklin
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