***** Official 2018 Election Night Thread *****

[baseline bum]

Are you watching Fox? They're currently saying the Democrats are in for a good night, because one of the close Kentucky seats is going Democrat, and the in bent Republican has been in for 8 years.

McGrath had a viral campaign ad that propelled her to the national stage.

[baseline bum]

Population about 38K. I don't see how that part of the state would decide the election as opposed to NW Indiana and Central Indiana, where the most peeplez are.

GEOFFREY SKELLEY7:38 PM
It seems like Donnelly will need a lot of help from Indianapolis (Marion County) and Gary (Lake County) to win. That is, outrun his 34- and 41-point margins there, respectively, in 2012.


DAN HOPKINS7:40 PM
As we see returns coming in from Indiana in the marquee Senate race there, it’s worth remembering how Donnelly got to the Senate in the first place. The tea party-backed Richard Mourdock beat in bent GOP Sen. Richard Lugar in the primary, setting up a Donnelly win by almost 6 percentage points in 2012.

[Millennial_Messiah]

That strategy scored points with my mother last election.

They're the most watched/highest rated network for a reason. Republicans love it for a lot of reasons, and Democrats don't love it so much but they watch the heck of it so they can get a ruse and figure out what to argue against. But it's solid business practice to be neutral on Election Night.

[Millennial_Messiah]

McGrath had a viral campaign ad that propelled her to the national stage.

Isn't Lexington got a couple big military stations? McGrath was a female pilot in the in' Marines. Might score some normally red-voters.

[baseline bum]

[baseline bum]

[boutons_deux]

b) they've recently cracked down a lot of the gerrymandering SCOTUS disagrees

which is skewed somewhat to the right a bit

d) the House is inherently skewed left due to representation being allocated by total population; Repug gerrymandering, massive voters suppression, House Dems have to win 5% more votes that Repugs just to break even.

[baseline bum]

[Millennial_Messiah]

Fox was projecting VA to be a gold mine for Dems due to Tim Kaine distancing himself from Hillary and the GOP guy being a weird ass and a birther.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Looks like Gillum is going to win. 51-47 with over half reporting.


FL will have state income taxes by 2020.

[baseline bum]

GEOFFREY SKELLEY7:52 PM
Boone County, Indiana — in the suburbs of Indianapolis — is running about the same as it did in 2012 when Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly won the seat he’s defending tonight. That year, Boone went for Donnelly’s GOP opponent by 17 points, and so far with about 75 percent of precincts reporting, Republican Mike Braun leads Donnelly by 16. On the whole, Donnelly wants to run evenly with his 2012 performance, when he won by 6 points. This is a place where that’s happening, but in more rural areas, Donnelly is running behind his 2012 pace.

[baseline bum]

[baseline bum]

Donnelly down 15 points with 33% reporting. He's done.

[baseline bum]

CLARE MALONE7:54 PM
An interesting little tidbit from the preliminary exit polls out of Indiana, where Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly is fighting for his seat: 53 percent said that Donnelly’s vote against Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation was important in deciding their midterm vote.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Don't think he was ever in danger. He's in a red-leaning purplish state but he's been there since 2006 and he's very popular and moderate.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Nelson looks to have defeated Scott, it's 72% reporting

[CitizenDwayne]

As a Kentuckian, I can tell you first-hand that ALL of Andy Barr’s approach comes down to “I’m a Trump guy”.

If he loses (which I’m still not sure of, there are a lot of dumb s around these parts), that’ll reflect very poorly on Trump’s role as leader of the Republican Party.

[Millennial_Messiah]

As a Kentuckian, I can tell you first-hand that ALL of Andy Barr’s approach comes down to “I’m a Trump guy”.

If he loses (which I’m still not sure of, there are a lot of dumb s around these parts), that’ll reflect very poorly on Trump’s role as leader of the Republican Party.

It works in a lot of those parts. But he's not a vet and the Democrat is a female marine.

[SnakeBoy]

Floridians want to monkey up their economy.

[baseline bum]

PERRY BACON JR.8:07 PM
Gillum ahead of DeSantis by 0.4 percent (49.6 to 49.2) with 82 percent of the votes in. This race is looking very close, like seemingly every one I can remember in Florida.

[baseline bum]

GEOFFREY SKELLEY8:07 PM
In Florida, Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson is up about 5 points in Pinellas County with 83 percent of precincts reporting. Trump won Pinellas by 1 point in 2016, and it’s a key county in the Tampa Bay area. It cast 5 percent of the statewide vote two years ago. Hard not to see this as a good sign for Nelson.

[baseline bum]

NATHANIEL RAKICH8:09 PM
Like close races? Tonight could be your night. In the Kentucky 6th, McGrath now leads Barr 50-49 with 74 percent reporting.

[Millennial_Messiah]

PERRY BACON JR.8:07 PM
Gillum ahead of DeSantis by 0.4 percent (49.6 to 49.2) with 82 percent of the votes in. This race is looking very close, like seemingly every one I can remember in Florida.

We've seen this movie before... if it's mostly the Panhandle that's left, we know what that means... let's see

[Reck]

GEOFFREY SKELLEY8:07 PM
In Florida, Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson is up about 5 points in Pinellas County with 83 percent of precincts reporting. Trump won Pinellas by 1 point in 2016, and it’s a key county in the Tampa Bay area. It cast 5 percent of the statewide vote two years ago. Hard not to see this as a good sign for Nelson.

Odd. I would have thought Gillum would be carrying his carcass to the finish line. He's leading Scottie more comfortably than Gillum is his ty oponent.

[baseline bum]

JANIE VELENCIA8:11 PM
Early exit polls (with caveats, of course) in Arizona don’t look so good for Democrat Kyrsten Sinema, who is running against Republican Martha McSally for the Senate seat. By a margin of 53 to 42 percent, Arizona voters say they’d like Republicans to control the Senate.

Trump, who won the state by 3.5 points in 2016, has a 52 percent approval rating and 47 percent disapproval rating.