Looking at how flu case frequency correlates with Corvid case frequency in our most populus states.

[vy65]

There's also the fact that SE Asia was hit hard by SARS and MERS. Singapore, Laos and Vietnam were likely better prepared than we are as a result.

Singapore, yes. The others, nothing I’ve found, but I wasn’t thorough.

[CosmicCowboy]

There's also the fact that SE Asia was hit hard by SARS and MERS. Singapore, Laos and Vietnam were likely better prepared than we are as a result.

I said this a week ago and RG poopood that and just blamed our slower reaction with his typical TDS.

[vy65]

If by saved, you mean saved from a worse result, then yeah.

Australia's winter is coming up soon. When ours comes around we'll get another round of COVID-19. It's doubtful there will be an effective, universal vaccine/treatment by then.

Treatment and vaccine aren’t the same thing

[Winehole23]

Treatment and vaccine aren’t the same thing

Didn't mean to suggest they were, just that neither would likely be ready for the next flu season.

[vy65]

Didn't mean to suggest they were, just that neither would likely be ready for the next flu season.

I agree as to a vaccine. I’m more optimistic as to some kind of antiviral. But that’s just one lawyers opinion from reading stat.com articles on the incredible push of the scientific community to find something. However, we will have more medical supplies and facilities by October

[Winehole23]

I said this a week ago and RG poopood that and just blamed our slower reaction with his typical TDS.

Sorry for your unpleasant experience, I think you made a valid point.

[Winehole23]

I agree as to a vaccine. I’m more optimistic as to some kind of antiviral. But that’s just one lawyers opinion from reading stat.com articles on the incredible push of the scientific community to find something. However, we will have more medical supplies and facilities by October

That's an encouraging thought. I hope the USG uses its power and resources toward that result. There's no hospital bailout yet. We may need one within weeks.

[vy65]

That's an encouraging thought. I hope the USG uses its power and resources toward that result. There's no hospital bailout yet. We may need one within weeks.

I’d like to think most everyone would be in support of that, if needed

[midnightpulp]

covid, not corvid

Technically came from a flying creature

But yeah, running on fumes when I wrote this. This isn't good for the stress/insomnia

[ElNono]

It’s not just heat, but humidity. The virus doesn’t interact well with water vapor. I’m hoping that adds a further layer of protection in places like South Texas and Florida.

I don't know about this particularly. As somebody that lived in the Tri-State area for 20 years, it's extremely humid there. I wouldn't bet on this.

[vy65]

I don't know about this particularly. As somebody that lived in the Tri-State area for 20 years, it's extremely humid there. I wouldn't bet on this.

I lived in northern NJ and am now in Houston. Tri state area humidity is nothing. I’m talking tropical sweltering hole humidity. I’ll find the article I’m referencing and share later.

[ElNono]

I lived in northern NJ and am now in Houston. Tri state area humidity is nothing. I’m talking tropical sweltering hole humidity. I’ll find the article I’m referencing and share later.

[vy65]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.acc...-19/703418/amp

[ElNono]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.acc...-19/703418/amp

thank you sir

[vy65]

Je vous en prie

[Splits]

I have a feeling this is going to be the kumbaya thread, but as of right now the numbers do not look promising. So let me piss on it.

We are 10 days behind Italy. They have 600-800 deaths/day the past 3, aren't quite peaking in infections, and are reporting ~5k new cases per day the past 3. US is already at double that infection rate, we'll hit 10k today. Obviously the death rate doesn't start painting a complete picture for 2-3 weeks after a new infection and we're double the Italian infection rate right now, while they might not even peaking on their deaths.

[midnightpulp]

I have a feeling this is going to be the kumbaya thread, but as of right now the numbers do not look promising. So let me piss on it.

We are 10 days behind Italy. They have 600-800 deaths/day the past 3, aren't quite peaking in infections, and are reporting ~5k new cases per day the past 3. US is already at double that infection rate, we'll hit 10k today. Obviously the death rate doesn't start painting a complete picture for 2-3 weeks after a new infection and we're double the Italian infection rate right now, while they might not even peaking on their deaths.

This is good. Means more testing is being done. Don't assume an increase in infection rate means an increase in spread, it's more likely an increase in testing.

As of right now, there's nothing to suggest the US is headed for an Italian death rate. The numbers are against that happening. Italy's flu mortality rate is 10x higher than ours. One of the oldest populations in the world. Affectionate social culture with a lot of close contact and multiple generations living in the same household. The variables are quite different.

To steer this into more light hearted territory, wanna bet that in 2 weeks in the US rate will remain below 2 percent? Loser has to donate 100.00 to charity that will help this crisis in some way. "Winner" has to donate 50.00. So we'll both help out at least.

[vy65]

I have a feeling this is going to be the kumbaya thread, but as of right now the numbers do not look promising. So let me piss on it.

We are 10 days behind Italy. They have 600-800 deaths/day the past 3, aren't quite peaking in infections, and are reporting ~5k new cases per day the past 3. US is already at double that infection rate, we'll hit 10k today. Obviously the death rate doesn't start painting a complete picture for 2-3 weeks after a new infection and we're double the Italian infection rate right now, while they might not even peaking on their deaths.

The whole point of this thread is that you can't only look at numbers, whether number of tests or calendar days, and compare us to Italy. The whole point of this thread is that number crunching leaves out other variables, i.e., population density, climate, etc...

[slick'81]

This is good. Means more testing is being done. Don't assume an increase in infection rate means an increase in spread, it's more likely an increase in testing.

As of right now, there's nothing to suggest the US is headed for an Italian death rate. The numbers are against that happening. Italy's flu mortality rate is 10x higher than ours. One of the oldest populations in the world. Affectionate social culture with a lot of close contact and multiple generations living in the same household. The variables are quite different.

To steer this into more light hearted territory, wanna bet that in 2 weeks in the US rate will remain below 2 percent? Loser has to donate 100.00 to charity that will help this crisis in some way. "Winner" has to donate 50.00. So we'll both help out at least.

Id love to see someone actually take you up on that bet

[vy65]

This is good. Means more testing is being done. Don't assume an increase in infection rate means an increase in spread, it's more likely an increase in testing.

As of right now, there's nothing to suggest the US is headed for an Italian death rate. The numbers are against that happening. Italy's flu mortality rate is 10x higher than ours. One of the oldest populations in the world. Affectionate social culture with a lot of close contact and multiple generations living in the same household. The variables are quite different.

To steer this into more light hearted territory, wanna bet that in 2 weeks in the US rate will remain below 2 percent? Loser has to donate 100.00 to charity that will help this crisis in some way. "Winner" has to donate 50.00. So we'll both help out at least.

If Splits doesn't take you up, I will (even though I agree with you). If he does, I'll match your $50 when we win.

[Splits]

To steer this into more light hearted territory, wanna bet that in 2 weeks in the US rate will remain below 2 percent? Loser has to donate 100.00 to charity that will help this crisis in some way. "Winner" has to donate 50.00. So we'll both help out at least.

2 weeks? gtfoh. Maybe 2 months. The death rate is impossible to predict over such a short period, especially when deaths are lagging and infections are skyrocketing. You've got to look at death/infection rate on any given day if you're going to try to compare between countries and predict forward.

[midnightpulp]

The whole point of this thread is that you can't only look at numbers, whether number of tests or calendar days, and compare us to Italy. The whole point of this thread is that number crunching leaves out other variables, i.e., population density, climate, etc...

We can also extrapolate using 20 day cycles. Italy, first death Feb. 21. 20 days later, 827.

US first death, March 1st, 20 days later, 302.

But this doesn't mean we're progressing about 40ish percent of Italy's rate (which would still be troubling) because we're not factoring in population sizes. When we scale to per capita, our 20 day rate is 54. We're actually progressing at 6.5 percent of Italy's rate. Over the following 10 days, Italy went from 827 to 4825 for a 5.8x increase. Per strict math, over the next 10 days from that 302 number we should progress to 570 deaths over the 10 next days, but it's been 2 days since our day 20, and we're at 514, so there is an inflection point where there's some acceleration. Even if we progress at 5.8x times over the next 10 days (worse case) from our day 20 (5.8 x 302), we'll be at 1700 deaths. But per capita again. Adjusting, that puts at 315 deaths.

So the Italian situation is still around 15 times worse even if we progress at their rate over the next ten days. Interestingly, Italians die from the flu at a 10 time greater rate.

If the math holds, we'll be around 1700-2000 deaths at our day 30 (which is next Tuesday).

[midnightpulp]

If Splits doesn't take you up, I will (even though I agree with you). If he does, I'll match your $50 when we win.

Deal

[Splits]

We can also extrapolate using 20 day cycles. Italy, first death Feb. 21. 20 days later, 827.

US first death, March 1st, 20 days later, 302.

But this doesn't mean we're progressing about 40ish percent of Italy's rate (which would still be troubling) because we're not factoring in population sizes. When we scale to per capita, our 20 day rate is 54. We're actually progressing at 6.5 percent of Italy's rate. Over the following 10 days, Italy went from 827 to 4825 for a 5.8x increase. Per strict math, over the next 10 days from that 302 number we should progress to 570 deaths over the 10 next days, but it's been 2 days since our day 20, and we're at 514, so there is an inflection point where there's some acceleration. Even if we progress at 5.8x times over the next 10 days (worse case) from our day 20 (5.8 x 302), we'll be at 1700 deaths. But per capita again. Adjusting, that puts at 315 deaths.

So the Italian situation is still around 15 times worse even if we progress at their rate over the next ten days. Interestingly, Italians die from the flu at a 10 time greater rate.

If the math holds, we'll be around 1700-2000 deaths at our day 30 (which is next Tuesday).

I'll take your same bet deal, but on deaths/day next Tuesday. I've got over 450

[midnightpulp]

2 weeks? gtfoh. Maybe 2 months. The death rate is impossible to predict over such a short period, especially when deaths are lagging and infections are skyrocketing. You've got to look at death/infection rate on any given day if you're going to try to compare between countries and predict forward.

Okay, 2 months.