The Spurs' Draft Going Forward: Theory and Practice

[DPG21920]

I'm of this thinking, too. Especially if they get Wemby, but Scoot as well. The tanking mindset that the Spurs have shown this season likely won't be there in those scenarios next season, which is a big difference. This year's team perfectly could've won 5-10 more games if they weren't actively sabotaged.

Then you look for that Kyrie, Porzingis, KD type of player and situation, and capitalize, or try to. The ATL picks, plus our own if need be, are more than enough for a disgruntled star. Throw in Keldon or some other player as well and...

I'd like to see what a Vassell, Sochan, Wemby, Star player + complimentary pieces team could get to do.

Spurs have cap space, tons of extra picks and good young core. They can go to really bad to solid quickly with some luck this draft. Flip side is with bad luck, it may take longer. But even if you land Wemby or Scoot or Miller and they pan out, you are still probably 2-3 years out from cashing in your chips to trade for someone to make the leap a la CLE.

To me, that MEM/CLE plan is the one, but it starts with landing that star/higher upside core via a couple years in top 5

[Dejounte]

Spurs have cap space, tons of extra picks and good young core. They can go to really bad to solid quickly with some luck this draft. Flip side is with bad luck, it may take longer. But even if you land Wemby or Scoot or Miller and they pan out, you are still probably 2-3 years out from cashing in your chips to trade for someone to make the leap a la CLE.

To me, that MEM/CLE plan is the one, but it starts with landing that star/higher upside core via a couple years in top 5

Not so sure about Memphis now as Ja is tearing it down with his stupidity as the weeks go by.

[DPG21920]

Not so sure about Memphis now as Ja is tearing it down with his stupidity as the weeks go by.

Well ya, lol, that is seriously scary stuff going on there. But I was saying their path….if you do what they did its amazing just have to hope you dont land an immature player like Ja is coming off.

[RobinsontoDuncan]

I'm really struggling to understand why so many people seem so eager to trade Keldon Johnson. He's only 23 years old and will inevitably improve (for reference, that's how old Derrick White was when we drafted him). You dont build contenders by trading away good players you've painstakingly developed. Also, this team already has a pretty good core:

2x proven 20ppg wing scorers in Vessel and KJ
2x potential star players in Branham and Sochan (I could see either or both developing into 20ppg players in the future)
A guaranteed top 10 pick in this year's draft


All of these guys will continue improving over the next 6 or 7 seasons. Consider this, Nephew was 23 when he had his big breakout in the '14 finals. Before that, we all mostly assumed he was a high, high level role player.

[Mr. Body]

I'm really struggling to understand why so many people seem so eager to trade Keldon Johnson. He's only 23 years old and will inevitably improve (for reference, that's how old Derrick White was when we drafted him). You dont build contenders by trading away good players you've painstakingly developed. Also, this team already has a pretty good core:

2x proven 20ppg wing scorers in Vessel and KJ
2x potential star players in Branham and Sochan (I could see either or both developing into 20ppg players in the future)
A guaranteed top 10 pick in this year's draft


All of these guys will continue improving over the next 6 or 7 seasons. Consider this, Nephew was 23 when he had his big breakout in the '14 finals. Before that, we all mostly assumed he was a high, high level role player.

I'd say the su ion is that he's not a lead scorer and also not a great defender. More to the point, his extention is kicking in. So you have the same situation as with White, Murray, and Poeltl, players who are good, who may be tailing off as the next rank of players are getting better, and cost money versus production you're not getting or needing due to the team situation.

Moving these players ostensibly lets others move in and develop. White moving let Murray grow into himself. Poeltl moving looks like it has opened up Collins.

[talkspurs]

One thing I dont understand is why people want to trade for a disgruntled player once we get going. Looking at most of them it has not worked out so well. LA got AD but look how they are now and dont have much of a future. Nets got KD and Kyrie and Harden and all of them are gone. Kawhi and PG to LAC. They have not done much since they got there. Yes Kawhi won in Toronto so they may consider it a win but had to kind of rebuild when he left the next year. KP to the Mavs lasted a year or so? It looks like DJM and Tre pairing is not working so great. I think this is more on Tre though and DJM was not trying to force his way out.

What I am saying is usually these players that act like this and want out are players that cause problems where they go. If we bring player like this in it could hurt our team long term. I would rather build like Milwaukee, Boston, Denver.

[RobinsontoDuncan]

KJ doesn’t have to be a lead scorer to be super valuable. Consider how valuable he’d be in a 6th man role in the playoffs. I also don’t think he’s done developing offensively, and certainly he can still improve defensively, especially if the talent around him improves.

[KingKev]

KJ doesn’t have to be a lead scorer to be super valuable. Consider how valuable he’d be in a 6th man role in the playoffs. I also don’t think he’s done developing offensively, and certainly he can still improve defensively, especially if the talent around him improves.

Because he’s a high usage tweener who can’t can’t guard a single position. If his 3 ball isn’t dropping he’s a consistent net negative player.

Given we won’t be compe ive for years to come if/when the opportunity to sell high is available I’m hitting that bid every time. If we actually were able to turn this around in 2-3 years he might have a role off the bench.

[TD 21]

We saw how Phoenix struggled with paying Deandre Ayton what he was 'due' as a #1 pick. It's hard to say he's worth the chunk of the cap he receives. Also wonder if drafting a center that high makes sense at all.

Managing salaries overall. There's been talk about how good Derrick White is (in the WSJ?) and how Poeltl is turning out for the Raptors. Inevitably, there's going to be grief that we gave up on these players.

The Thunder are barely better than they were last year.

1. The strict rim runner/protector archetype are obviously not worth a high pick since we've seen numerous examples of ones ranging from late 1sts to undrafted becoming anywhere from quality starters to good backups.

Despite the league/media brainwashing the masses otherwise, now that bigs have adjusted to this era, a great one is as important as ever which is why they're the ones battling it out for MVP and mostly dominating the playoffs in recent years.

2. I've noticed that every time White, Murray or Poeltl has a big counting stat game it inexplicably gets brought up, yet the same conveniently doesn't happen with the picks the Spurs received from prominent trades.

3. The Thunder went from 29th in expected record to 10th this season, with probably their second highest impact player not playing a second.

Spurs have cap space, tons of extra picks and good young core. They can go to really bad to solid quickly with some luck this draft.

They don't have a single player who looks capable of so much as being the second best player on a good team.

So can virtually any team.

[Mr. Body]

1. The strict rim runner/protector archetype are obviously not worth a high pick since we've seen numerous examples of ones ranging from late 1sts to undrafted becoming anywhere from quality starters to good backups.

Despite the league/media brainwashing the masses otherwise, now that bigs have adjusted to this era, a great one is as important as ever which is why they're the ones battling it out for MVP and mostly dominating the playoffs in recent years.

3. The Thunder went from 29th in expected record to 10th this season, with probably their second highest impact player not playing a second.

There are literally only two great bigs in the league, and one was had with a SRP. You might find another one, maybe.

OKC can't even make the playoffs in one of the worst years for the Western Conference in memory. They're generally good because they were gifted SGA, who also derives a grotesque number of points because of chintzy, crapass fouls the league calls for the benefit of players like him. I don't doubt Silver is going to slide a top 4 pick over to them this year, though.

[Ed Helicopter Jones]

Back in the day, there was discussion about whether the Spurs might be more interested in early second round picks rather than late first round picks. Reason why? With international players in that era often requiring buyouts, the SRP lack of salary structure gave more room to work with.

We often get caught up in acquiring players but not in how much they cost.

The problem with rookie salaries. A hidden thing that kills a lot of struggling and bad franchises is how much top draft picks cost. Here is a rundown of how much each pick generally costs once they are signed. You can immediately see how a whiff on a high pick starts screwing a team pretty quickly. Add another couple of non-top pick stars and you're in a heap of trouble. Houston already pay Jalen Green and Jabari Smith, Jr., nearly $9,000,000 a year. Soon they'll need to decide whether to pay out their next contracts. (Sengun, at pick 16, makes a third of that.)

We saw how Phoenix struggled with paying Deandre Ayton what he was 'due' as a #1 pick. It's hard to say he's worth the chunk of the cap he receives. Also wonder if drafting a center that high makes sense at all.

Off-the-wall query: I kinda wonder if the Spurs are going to take their 12%-14% chance at Wemby/Henderson and, failing to get them, would actually be happier drafting at 5-7 than 3-4. For this theory to be true, they would have to feel confident they can get one of their Tier 2 guys and won't be on the hook for as much seasonally for them.

Managing salaries overall. There's been talk about how good Derrick White is (in the WSJ?) and how Poeltl is turning out for the Raptors. Inevitably, there's going to be grief that we gave up on these players. The frustration is fair, but I think misses the point of the trades wasn't only to gain future assets for these players, but to get off their salaries. White makes something like $17.5 million a year. Poeltl will make over $20 million.

Those are fine for contending teams, but costly for players that don't enable a struggling team to win. Again, like the cost of rookie wages, these are things the front office really seems to care about in detail.

I'd say it's open whether Keldon will be moved, and I think so. He's not quite on the same development curve and doesn't appear to be a first/leader guy, although he would be killer on a team like Denver or Boston, etc., where he could feast on the gravity of other players. I think the Spurs understand this; their philosophy seems to get these guys paid, and be overjoyed when someone else is paying them.

Too many puppies? A major issue coming up is who of these bustling little creatures to feed. Already we saw it in a win against Indiana -- Tre and Vassell coming back causes immediate issues with who gets the ball, where players are expecting shots, how they fit in. After an awful 2021 draft, with Primo nor Wieskamp even on the team, they seemed to have three promising rooks in Sochan, Branham, and Wesley this year. Then they signed undrafted Dominic Barlow and signed Philly's castoff Charles Bassey. All five players look pretty good!

And then we have three draft picks this year, and next year they may have five!!

This is clearly a problem, albeit a good problem to have. One, I might mention, OKC is facing. They were gifted a lot of picks by trades that fell into their lap, have loads of picks upcoming, and a lot of young players already. They burned three FRPs just to get Ousmane Dieng alone.

When mismanaged, these picks appear to lead to an unproductive churn. The Thunder are barely better than they were last year. Granted, they've been without their top pick from this draft, but even the absurd FT advantages their one superior player in SGA receives cannot push them into the playoffs. They will have to decide about players like Pokushevski and Jeremiah Robinson-Earl. Guys who -- okay, Pokushevski kind of sucks, but JRE seems like one of those workmanlike guys who can be in the league for a while.

While I wouldn't resist trading the Spurs' cache of picks for the Thunders', I truly don't know what they're going to do. Packaging players and picks for a star is an obvious strategy, but does Presti have the guts to pull the trigger? Picking in the draft is fairly easy, building a team is hard.

Strategies with too many picks: What are different approaches to handling gobs of picks? Well...

1. Respect the churn. Draft players, see how they work, draft other players, get rid of the first players. This seems... okay? Obviously you want to move on from players who aren't working out, but you don't want to do this because you don't have room for decent players.
2. Consolidate picks. This seems harder than you'd think, but you can package picks and move up. In fact, this may become easier now that fewer teams are controlling more picks.
3. Trade picks for players. Not even the star player, but the near-star, a Mikel Bridges type who can cement a good, young team. But then you'd have to change from a fancy-pants drafter into an actual team builder.
4. Start picking for need. Possibly an unintentional result of logjams at guard or suchlike, you start drafting for positions of need. For example, the Spurs drafting purely wings this draft because they only have Keita Bates-Diop.
5. Kick picks down the road. To me a great idea, even for surplus FRPs. If you have players coming along, you don't want to take too many swings to pile new guys on top of them. If the Spurs become a playoff team in three to five years, for example, then getting more picks along to help out is a massive boost. Adding talent to near-contending teams is remarkably hard.

The Spurs' current surplus dudes: By now it feels like we're seeing the near future of the roster. Putting Keldon and Devin aside, and Graham is someone who is fitting in, the near bit is Sochan, Branham, Wesley, Bassey, and possibly Barlow, plus the new rook(s). See what they can do. Dougie, who knows. But Langford and Roby are likely gone. What is important is to retain a veteran host to help out.

tl/dr: we have to consider salary in the Tetris-game of assembling a near-contender, and this plays a role in our drafts, and having too many picks needs to be addressed because it's a powerful, but easily squandered position.

Good points in there.

I think your 3rd point under strategies could come to fruition if we land Wemby. My thought is that the Spurs will want to pretty quickly try to build some traction should they win the lottery, so I could certainly see them trying to convert some of their picks back into decent rotational players. Get some middle tier stars to surround him, maybe even grabbing someone in free agency, and suddenly the Spurs are back in business.

Converting those rookies deals into long-term contracts does become costly. Makes you realize that climbing out of the rebuild is harder than it looks. You definitely need some luck, like Denver in drafting the Joker. The stars definitely need to align in order for a team to rebuild and be elite. Lots of teams have gotten to be good again, but you can't point to too many rebuilds producing championships.

[TD 21]

There are literally only two great bigs in the league, and one was had with a SRP. You might find another one, maybe.

OKC can't even make the playoffs in one of the worst years for the Western Conference in memory. They're generally good because they were gifted SGA, who also derives a grotesque number of points because of chintzy, crapass fouls the league calls for the benefit of players like him. I don't doubt Silver is going to slide a top 4 pick over to them this year, though.

Presuming you mean Jokic and Embiid, that would mean you're implying Antetokounmpo (despite the ball skills, basically a C on offense since he can't shoot) and Davis aren't great? The first three are MVP caliber, the fourth is borderline, while Towns, Sabonis and Adebayo are All-NBA caliber (Gobert hasn't been this season).

Jumping 19 spots in expected record indicates they're much more than barely improved.

[Mr. Body]

Presuming you mean Jokic and Embiid, that would mean you're implying Antetokounmpo (despite the ball skills, basically a C on offense since he can't shoot) and Davis aren't great? The first three are MVP caliber, the fourth is borderline, while Towns, Sabonis and Adebayo are All-NBA caliber (Gobert hasn't been this season).

Jumping 19 spots in expected record indicates they're much more than barely improved.

Yep, Embiid and Jokic. Giannis isn't a center. Anthony Davis is a ing soft piece of junk. Towns is terrible. Adebayo is a PF. Gobert is great on one side of the ball.

[TD 21]

Yep, Embiid and Jokic. Giannis isn't a center. Anthony Davis is a ing soft piece of junk. Towns is terrible. Adebayo is a PF. Gobert is great on one side of the ball.

Antetokounmpo is a terrible shooting, C sized type who occasionally defends the position, Davis is still a top 10 player when healthy, Towns is still a top 20 player when healthy, Adebayo is clearly a C and Gobert might be on the decline.

The point is, there's about as many great or very good bigs now as at virtually any time, so don't buy into this nonsense that they try to sell the masses.

[Mr. Body]

Antetokounmpo is a terrible shooting, C sized type who occasionally defends the position, Davis is still a top 10 player when healthy, Towns is still a top 20 player when healthy, Adebayo is clearly a C and Gobert might be on the decline.

The point is, there's about as many great or very good bigs now as at virtually any time, so don't buy into this nonsense that they try to sell the masses.

Whatever you want to say.

[rascal]

Because he’s a high usage tweener who can’t can’t guard a single position. If his 3 ball isn’t dropping he’s a consistent net negative player.

Given we won’t be compe ive for years to come if/when the opportunity to sell high is available I’m hitting that bid every time. If we actually were able to turn this around in 2-3 years he might have a role off the bench.

Spurs need to add more talented players and not hope payers develope into these type of players.

[scott]

This thread, an intellectual masterpiece, deserves more than just two pages. Maybe it needs more Sandro Mamusfdhjsfkdsfville or Primo’s junk to catch fire.

Either way, love reading this thread. ST’s finest.

[scott]

Good points in there.

I think your 3rd point under strategies could come to fruition if we land Wemby. My thought is that the Spurs will want to pretty quickly try to build some traction should they win the lottery, so I could certainly see them trying to convert some of their picks back into decent rotational players. Get some middle tier stars to surround him, maybe even grabbing someone in free agency, and suddenly the Spurs are back in business.

Converting those rookies deals into long-term contracts does become costly. Makes you realize that climbing out of the rebuild is harder than it looks. You definitely need some luck, like Denver in drafting the Joker. The stars definitely need to align in order for a team to rebuild and be elite. Lots of teams have gotten to be good again, but you can't point to too many rebuilds producing championships.

100%

I keep going back to what I call the 1989 model. With you’re rookie superstar established along with one other centerpiece (who could have been considered either Sean or Willie going into the 1989 season), it’s time to consolidate your other young assets and build a real team. While there isn’t an exact parallel, if we land Wemby I’d like to see the Spurs package up some combination of Keldon/Vassell/Bran (two of the three) and/or picks for our 2023 version of Terry mings to give veteran presence and leadership to Wemby, Sochan and the rest.

[Thomas82]

100%

I keep going back to what I call the 1989 model. With you’re rookie superstar established along with one other centerpiece (who could have been considered either Sean or Willie going into the 1989 season), it’s time to consolidate your other young assets and build a real team. While there isn’t an exact parallel, if we land Wemby I’d like to see the Spurs package up some combination of Keldon/Vassell/Bran (two of the three) and/or picks for our 2023 version of Terry mings to give veteran presence and leadership to Wemby, Sochan and the rest.

I'm right there with you on this one!!

[spurraider21]

Not reading all that.

But I’m happy for you.

Or sorry that happened

[Silverheart80]

If the Spurs get the #1 pick in this summer's draft, it's a dream come true. But if not, then the question becomes, "How do you win a championship against a team with Wembanyama?"

Depending on what team gets him (that's the big 'if, right?), I think Wembanyama's arrival triggers an increased demand for NBA players to be able to rotate on all five positions on D, handle the ball, initiate offense, create their own shots when needed, and shoot threes with efficiency. I think a design like that could nullify and overcome a team built around Wembanyama, but it would take a team with length and quickness with no short players or tweeners. In the past, Golden State has come *somewhat* closest, but no team has accomplished that exact design yet.

The traditional center who can't shoot the three and can't defend on the perimeter is virtually an extinct NBA species (at least for winning a championship). But to make that design work, then the next endangered species will be the undersized guard. We've seen an evolution of NBA bigs that can shoot the three, but I think the next evolution is NBA forwards that can handle the ball and initiate offense, along with shoot from distance -- which is already happening obviously. But the shift is that ballhandling to initiate offense becomes a virtually mandatory skillset *across the entire lineup* in order to compete for championships. And that's where shorter point guards and 'tweener-sized wings would become obsolete on defense. They become impossible to hide. I think that's the effect Victor is gonna have, both on the NBA and globally.

He's the next evolutionary step from KD. So as far as how the Spurs draft from here -- I'm not particularly high on the team's current abundance of 6'4" to 6'6" wing players in that kind of world, and building around a 6'2" point guard like Scoot Henderson feels risky in that scenario, if the Spurs score the #2 pick. On the other hand, Brandon Miller makes sense toward that kind of design, but I can't see the Spurs risking a pick on him. So beyond Wembanyama at #1, there are really no surefire answers, but long-term, that's the design I would aim for. League-wide change won't happen overnight or even in one or two seasons. It'll be gradual, but I think it'll happen -- we're headed to a truly positionless NBA future.

<lights another Manu candle for the Spurs to score that #1 pick>

[Vince Carter's ankle]

"How do you win a championship against a team with Wembanyama?"

He hasn't played a single game in the NBA.
Keep calm.

[Ocotillo]

These generational type of players do not typically come in and march their new NBA team to a championship. Duncan pulled it off pretty quickly but he had a strong line up around him that had been injured the year he was drafted. Lebron took quite a bit of time. Curry did not turn them around right away. If Wemby lands on the Spurs or say Charlotte, Detroit or Houston, he isn't ringing his first season. Maybe if a team like New Orleans lucks into winning the lottery with the LA pick swap, they might pull something off if Zion can play a full season.

All this is saying, however good a rook is, it still takes time unless there are extraordinary cir stances.

[exstatic]

If the Spurs get the #1 pick in this summer's draft, it's a dream come true. But if not, then the question becomes, "How do you win a championship against a team with Wembanyama?"

Depending on what team gets him (that's the big 'if, right?), I think Wembanyama's arrival triggers an increased demand for NBA players to be able to rotate on all five positions on D, handle the ball, initiate offense, create their own shots when needed, and shoot threes with efficiency. I think a design like that could nullify and overcome a team built around Wembanyama, but it would take a team with length and quickness with no short players or tweeners. In the past, Golden State has come *somewhat* closest, but no team has accomplished that exact design yet.

The traditional center who can't shoot the three and can't defend on the perimeter is virtually an extinct NBA species (at least for winning a championship). But to make that design work, then the next endangered species will be the undersized guard. We've seen an evolution of NBA bigs that can shoot the three, but I think the next evolution is NBA forwards that can handle the ball and initiate offense, along with shoot from distance -- which is already happening obviously. But the shift is that ballhandling to initiate offense becomes a virtually mandatory skillset *across the entire lineup* in order to compete for championships. And that's where shorter point guards and 'tweener-sized wings would become obsolete on defense. They become impossible to hide. I think that's the effect Victor is gonna have, both on the NBA and globally.

He's the next evolutionary step from KD. So as far as how the Spurs draft from here -- I'm not particularly high on the team's current abundance of 6'4" to 6'6" wing players in that kind of world, and building around a 6'2" point guard like Scoot Henderson feels risky in that scenario, if the Spurs score the #2 pick. On the other hand, Brandon Miller makes sense toward that kind of design, but I can't see the Spurs risking a pick on him. So beyond Wembanyama at #1, there are really no surefire answers, but long-term, that's the design I would aim for. League-wide change won't happen overnight or even in one or two seasons. It'll be gradual, but I think it'll happen -- we're headed to a truly positionless NBA future.

<lights another Manu candle for the Spurs to score that #1 pick>

The problem with that supposition is that the bell curve of humans has a 'bell' that gravitates towards normal sized humans. There will be a ton more 6'2" guys who can handle, pass, and shoot at a high NBA level than 6'8" guys with those same skills. The 6'8" guys will be infinitely more valuable AND more rare, meaning the 6'2" guys aren't going anywhere. I think what you will see is that guys under maybe 6'4" who aren't knockdown shooters will vanish, or almost vanish.

[Silverheart80]

The problem with that supposition is that the bell curve of humans has a 'bell' that gravitates towards normal sized humans. There will be a ton more 6'2" guys who can handle, pass, and shoot at a high NBA level than 6'8" guys with those same skills. The 6'8" guys will be infinitely more valuable AND more rare, meaning the 6'2" guys aren't going anywhere. I think what you will see is that guys under maybe 6'4" who aren't knockdown shooters will vanish, or almost vanish.

Yeah, I think 6'4" NBA guards who aren't knockdown shooters are already undesirable. Agree there. I'm saying that to win championships in an era where teams are all trying to get bigger across the roster, I think that kind of design is gonna be mandatory. You're right that we're gonna have plenty of shorter NBA players and tweeners for a long time, but those teams won't be competing for championships, once the model shifts. There's not gonna be enough supply of those players for all 30 teams in the short run. So we'll see a much more stratified 'haves and have-nots' league. The need to shift could very well happen overnight if Wembanyama goes to the right club with the right GM, but the manifestation of that shift.....that's gonna take a while. I'm saying I would like to see the Spurs be a leader toward that model, rather than a follower. We shall see. But in the meantime, Sochan is absolutely the kind of player that fits that future.