First Round Free-Fallers the Spurs Could Pick at 33

[BatManu20]

I can totally see a DeJuan Blair situation happening. A lot of mocks had him going in the teens and he fell all the way to #37, at which point he was a no-brainer pick.

Cause he had no ACL’s lol. Remember that draft well. Even after being one of the best players in CBB that season and dominating #2 overall pick Hasheem Thabeet in their matchup, teams still wanted nothing to do with him. Spurs happily picked him and he went on to have a decent career with us. He’d have a ring if not for 6 tbh.

[BatManu20]

They should be able to move into the late 20s pretty easily using #33 and the tons of future 2nd rounders they have. No need to wait if a guy they liked projected in the 15-22 range is falling.

Yea this is thread is likely (hopefully) for s and gigs as the Spurs will likely trade back into the First Round at some point. Seriously hope it’s into the lottery though so we can grab one of those higher rated PG prospects. Black, Bufkin, Wallace, or JHS. Any of those 4 + Wemby would be a stellar draft tbh.

[Mugen]

I don’t see any of those guys dropping into the 2nd Rnd tbh, but we’ll see. I’m hoping we trade that pick as part of a package to move back into the lottery to pick a PG. But IF we’re unable to do that and we end up staying there and keeping the pick, my guys are:

1. Amari Bailey — The #3 overall ranked high school player in the nation last year and the #1 ranked combo guard. I believe he belongs in the late 1st Rnd at worst and expect he won’t slip past there. 6’4 with a sweet lefty mid-range game who also shoots it well from 3 (38%). Was underutilized at UCLA this year playing on a team full of upperclassman, and was forced to play off-ball, but shows ability to create for others. Not a great athlete, but good enough and competes hard on the defensive end. Needs to limit turnovers, but excels in PnR and can play off-ball. Had a great showing at the combine. Would be a steal at 33 imo.

2. Colby Jones — Do-it-all Combo guard who feels like one of the Spursy-est players in this draft. Not particularly great at any one thing, but really good at everything. Smart, heady, plays defense, can get to the cup, shoots it well enough, etc. Think he goes late 1st, but if he dropped to 33, would be a huge steal.

3. Jamie Jacquez — 6’7 226 lb wing who is one of the older players in this draft at 22 years old, but he’s a really good, smart, high-IQ player who can do a little bit of everything. Best footwork of any player in this draft. Was UCLA‘s best player this season. Not a great athlete, but good enough. Plays hard on D. Good glue-guy off the bench. Needs to improve from 3, but he has a future in this league. Think he goes Late 1st.

4. Brandin Podziemski — 6’4 combo guard who can really shoot it. Smart, high-IQ player who can fill it up offensively with his smooth lefty jumper. Good passer too out of the PnR. But he’s a poor athlete, a poor defender, and is undersized, which is why he’s projected anywhere from late 1st to mid 2nd. How long he lasts in this league will depend on whether or not he can hold his own on the defensive end of the floor. Spursy type player though in terms of skill set who I think has a good chance of slipping to 33 due to his lack of size and athleticism, as well as his defense. He has the skill set to be a solid combo guard in the right system. But I think the Spurs pass on him.

5. Andre Jackson — 6’7 Swiss Army knife player who can do everything but shoot. Unlikely we take a swing because we already have Sochan who struggles with his shot. Need to surround Wemby with shooters. But this kid is a of a wing defender and was a key piece of UConn’s National Championship team.

5. Sidy Cissoko — Big, strong frame on this 19 year-old Frenchman at 6’7 225 lbs with a 6’10 wingspan. He’ll definitely need some time to develop, but could potentially carve out a nice 3&D role down the line. Think poor man’s Ron Artest. Decent chance he’s available at 33.

6. Maxwell Lewis — 6’7 wing who really excels at scoring and shoots it well from 3 (35%) and was elite in catch-and-shoot situation this year (44%). Shows flashes of being a really good defender, but needs to be more consistent on that end. But he would definitely be a steal at 33 with his well-rounded offensive game, elite catch-and-shoot ability, and defensive potential. Projected late 1st right now and I don’t think he slips past last 1st Round.

7. Julian Strawther — One-trick pony with his 3-ball, but he does that one trick at an elite level. Averaged 15 PPG on 41% from 3 at high volume (5 attempts/per). Good size at 6’7 but will need to bulk up. Not a great defender either, but would be a solid bench wing to surround Wemby with imo. Redundant though if we hold onto Julian Champagnie.

8. James Nnaji – Another big, strong 6’10 230 lb 18 year-old with an NBA body and a 7’5 wingspan. Old-school bruiser type C with no real offensive skill. Think a more athletic Clint Capela. Good rim protector who dunks everything around the rim. Could develop into a defensive monster down the line though to pair with Wemby.

Good list tbh.

The UCLA guys are a pass for me but I'd love Podz or Nnaji at 33 if they stayed put. Though I think Podz goes in the 20s.

[Mugen]

Cause he had no ACL’s lol. Remember that draft well. Even after being one of the best players in CBB that season and dominating #2 overall pick Hasheem Thabeet in their matchup, teams still wanted nothing to do with him. Spurs happily picked him and he went on to have a decent career with us. He’d have a ring if not for 6 tbh.

Dejuan might have been the fastest I've ever seen the Spurs send their pick up. ESPN didn't even have time to cut to commercial tbh

[Seventyniner]

Cause he had no ACL’s lol. Remember that draft well. Even after being one of the best players in CBB that season and dominating #2 overall pick Hasheem Thabeet in their matchup, teams still wanted nothing to do with him. Spurs happily picked him and he went on to have a decent career with us. He’d have a ring if not for 6 tbh.

Right. I think the Blair situation could happen to Whitehead in particular, and to a lesser extent perhaps Nick Smith Jr.

Especially this year where a few teams have multiple picks between 16 and 32. If a team passes on Whitehead due to injury concerns with one of their picks they will likely do so with their other pick. That increases the chance that he falls all the way to #33 because some teams that would have been willing to take him don't have a pick in that range.

Specifically, if Utah/Indiana/Brooklyn all pass on Whitehead, only 10 other teams will have a chance at him before the Spurs at #33. That's not a big number to fall through.

[spurs10]

Great thread. Not knowing much about any of these guys, I now will have a better idea what's going on draft night. Thanks for the info folks!

[Uriel]

Suppose that for each of these players, there is only a 20% chance of them being available at #33. That is, there is an 80% chance of them being picked before that.

Since there are 7 of these players, the probability of at least one of them being available at #33 is 1-(0.8^7)=0.79.

In other words, there is a 79% chance that at least one of them will be available at #33.

[mo7888]

Suppose that for each of these players, there is only a 20% chance of them being available at #33. That is, there is an 80% chance of them being picked before that.

Since there are 7 of these players, the probability of at least one of them being available at #33 is 1-(0.8^7)=0.79.

In other words, there is a 79% chance that at least one of them will be available at #33.

Your flaw is in the 20% supposition..

[BackHome]

Suppose that for each of these players, there is only a 20% chance of them being available at #33. That is, there is an 80% chance of them being picked before that.

Since there are 7 of these players, the probability of at least one of them being available at #33 is 1-(0.8^7)=0.79.

In other words, there is a 79% chance that at least one of them will be available at #33.

But what if I only like one of them ..lol

FYI - Tankathon just did an update:

33. Jaime Jaquez
44. Jordan Walsh

[rascal]

Jaquez will be the pick at 33.

[Ariel]

Jaquez will be the pick at 33.

Jaquez is who I'm hoping for, but I'd be shocked if he isn't taken in the first round... in fact I think there's a reasonable chance he gets picked before 20.

[Ariel]

But what if I only like one of them ..lol

FYI - Tankathon just did an update:

33. Jaime Jaquez
44. Jordan Walsh

That's a perfect draft for me. Walsh at 44 is doable, Jaquez at 33 seems less and less likely

[rascal]

Spurs aren't keeping 44.

[Obstructed_View]

Dejuan might have been the fastest I've ever seen the Spurs send their pick up. ESPN didn't even have time to cut to commercial tbh

Yep. We opined at the time that it was deliberate. I don't recall if Blair ever had any knee issues, despite not always being in top shape.

[kobyz]

My under the radar prospects of this draft is Ricky Council, all around talent that absolutely has the dog in him, he's someone that everyone sleep on him for some reason and might slipp to the second round, i found myself think if it's not Jimmy Butler story all over again... At least i think he'll be similar to Josh Hart

[heyheymymy]

Jordan Walsh or Council IV in the 2nd seems like a better value than NSJ in the first or what it would cost to get Anthony Black though I like Black a lot.

Council IV could be a solid deep bench guy and Walsh has potential too.

[Uriel]

Your flaw is in the 20% supposition..

Even if we assumed it was only 10%, the probability of at least one of them being available would still be 52%, which means it's more likely than not. That accords with historical precedent.

[mo7888]

Even if we assumed it was only 10%, the probability of at least one of them being available would still be 52%, which means it's more likely than not. That accords with historical precedent.

It's alot less than that for any specific player on that list.

[BackHome]

​​

Spurs aren't keeping 44.

And many people said “Spurs are Not Tanking” at the beginning of the season and yet here we are with the number 1 pick about to draft Wemby. All glory goes to the Tanks Commanders and off course our Front Office we know what were doing just trust the process.

Lol. Yeah I don’t think were keeping the 44th pick unless it is a stash

[DrunkTXLabrat]

Nic Batum and the #30

[RC_Drunkford]

Spurstalk and timvp have now made it to television. Watch at 0:55

[JPB]

I see "pundits" still read Spurstalk in 2023.

[DAF86]

Chances of this guy being there at 33?



If Pop can coach his flaws, he would be a steal, tbh.

[buttsR4rebounding]

Spurs aren't keeping 44.

Philadelphia is supposedly looking a pick in the 40s. Might be something there.

[Ariel]

Chances of this guy being there at 33?



If Pop can coach his flaws, he would be a steal, tbh.

He'll be there at 44, there will be better prospects at 33.