Stephon Castle - 2024 NBA Draft Prospect

[SpursFan86]

I like Castle, just please get a ing shooter with the other pick. Castle/Sheppard is my ideal duo probably, although seems like a bit of a long shot.

[Kevin]

I like Castle, just please get a ing shooter with the other pick. Castle/Sheppard is my ideal duo probably, although seems like a bit of a long shot.

I feel the same way. Castle's size, defense and driving ability give him a really nice floor. Its not like his shot is completely broken like Sochan either. Good chance he can turn into a good shooter.

[mo7888]

In this draft, there are two players who combine shooting and defense in any measure, Risacher and Reed Sheppard. But they appear to top out as role players. Too slow, limited handles, limited in defensive upside, etc. I'll leave out Carter for now.

That's it.

Or, you go for a player who is very strong in key categories and believe you can improve what is missing. Someone posted how often players of Castle's skillset hit in the lottery and it's actually pretty high, with results from Kawhi to Oladipo, and the reason, I'd say, is that these guys are good at basketball. Once you get shooting to league average, they are seriously good.

I'm not worried about advanced analytics, whatever those are. I think jesterbobman is absolutely correct. He doesn't have the flash stats that some like. Castle did not get big stocks. (A player who also did not get big stocks: Kawhi.)

The value of Castle's defense is that he's relentless, but very smooth and measured, meaning he regains position without rush. His rotations are extremely fluid, he sees what to do very, very well, and he harasses without being chaotic. He does foul a bit too much, but that's seasoning. Most important, he walls up superbly. He contests with strength, length, tightness, without gambling. In a league where defense is practically illegal, this is really important.

In the end, you have to pick someone in this draft. It's easy to say, "I want a shooter!" and then when that guy is a bad defender. It's easy to say, "I want a defender!" and then whine when their shooting isn't great. Don't you realize nearly everyone in this draft is a questionable shooter? Nearly everyone in the top 10 last year was a questionable shooter.

Get the guy who is good at basketball and whose final skill is shooting. At worst you have a very strong defender who is a great glue guy. If he improves, you've just raised your floor and ceiling at the same time.

Your post does bring out a couple philosophical points to consider:

1) Upside vs Floor- I'm most cases you want to err in the direction of choosing upside, but in a draft as poor as this one does that calculus change? Does upside have a lesser chance of 'hitting' than in other drafts to the point that taking the 'floor' just makes more sense?

2) Is this draft really as poor as we think? Or have we been overly influenced by media types telling is that it is?

[DAF86]

On less than 1 attempt per game. Castle attempted over 2 as a Freshman, which knocks is percentage. Butler didn't even attempt 3's his first year at Marquette. He didn't start shooting them until his Sop re season and then finally attempted 1.5 per game his Junior year at 35%. All we know is what Castle looked like as a Freshman. He could easily improve the same way Jimmy did over the next 2 years. Even if he doesn't ever become a knockdown shooter, he will almost certainly improve enough to become a respectable one in due time.

Yeah, he could improve, but what are the chances of him becoming a Jimmy Butler? Less than very slim.

What are the chances of him becoming a true reliable 3pt threat? Again, very slim.

My problem with Castle is that his most likely outcome is becoming an Anthony Black, tbh.

[exstatic]

As for the workout thing... gaming this out.

If dude truly wants to be a 30% usage PG, he's mistaken. This isn't his future. He's too slow, his vision isn't the greatest.

But I get his point: he doesn't want to exclusively play off-ball watching LaMello or Scoot do everything. Rumor included him thinking about his career. Recognizes, I think, that he taps out as a role player for the first five or six years at least on those teams, mostly forgotten. A defensive specialist only doing a lot of ball watching.

Now, if he means he wants to be LaMello Ball, he's crazy.

But he's not crazy. I don't get that impression. He has a good camp on his side (it seems). He made a very heady decision in picking UConn right before UConn became this "two dominant championship seasons" UConn.

But it's still pretty risky for a semi-marginal point to say he wants to run point. Honestly the most fascinating thing in this draft so far.

Because this boxes out almost every team in the top 10. So... either he's cool with sliding. Which may be true. He really, really hates Tre Jones and Tyus Jones, which may be true. He's signaling to the world what he has to offer. Or he's targeting either the Wizards or the Spurs with or without any promise from their side.

I think, if he legit thinks he's LaMello Ball, that's a problem, because on offense he's not LaMallo Ball. If he legit is cool with sliding to a later team (which ones?), that's pretty fascinating, as he's placing longterm thinking over short term money. And if he's legit targeting the Spurs, that's wild because it's risky.

My gut says that he's going to be absolutely okay with a Spurs system where he can handle the ball a lot, organize up sets, but is far from exclusive in that role, but that his ability to make quick read-and-reacts in a motion offense is what he wants. Or even that he doesn't really want to be a pure PG, but that's trying to avoid going to dodgy situations in Charlotte, etc.

I don’t think he wants to be a 30% guy so much as he doesn’t want to be an 18% guy playing 100% off ball.

[exstatic]

Butler shot 38% from 3 in college.

Butler shot 0% from 3 as a freshman, which is was Castle is. That 38% was based on 0.9 attempts per game over his last two seasons. Not exactly a decent sample size.

[exstatic]

Yeah, he could improve, but what are the chances of him becoming a Jimmy Butler? Less than very slim.

What are the chances of him becoming a true reliable 3pt threat? Again, very slim.

My problem with Castle is that his most likely outcome is becoming an Anthony Black, tbh.

Anthony black shot 39.4% on 1.4 attempts in 17 minutes from a further 3 point line than Jimmy did in college.

[LeBowen]

Dillingham FITS WITH WEMBY better than all other options and that should be the #1 priority imo

why gamble he will be there at 8 if he is the best fit with wemby? Dillingham can shoot lights out, is sneaky fast, wants to be is S.A. and the spurs need a PG now

Why is he the best fit with Wemby? We don't know if his skillset will translate to the NBA.
I'm all for taking a gamble with high upside player with #8 pick, but we need someone who's guaranteed to contribute from day1 with #4.

buzelis - if you watch some film- looks fluid, has size, has great mechanics in his shot, handles are good, and just looks comfortably competent to my eyes

He played for Ignite that's getting disbanded, most players from Ignite are busts.
I don't care about mechanics if he's shooting 27% in G-league's worst team.
Before you mention Wemby's 3pt% in France, he was playing with grown men.

sheppard is a true pure shooter and you cannot teach that

Yeah, let's get the next Patty Mills with #4 pick.

sheppard is needed to offset bricklayers like sochan, zollins, wesley, tre jones, keldon, etc

We offset those bricklayers by removing them from rotation.

[Kevin]

Crazy at how much love Anthony Black had around here a year ago at this time and now everyone is down on him. I strongly suspect this is the case because Black doesn't play for the Spurs and he had a pretty normal rookie campaign that came with some bumps and bruises.

If Black played for the Spurs we would be chest deep in DJM comparisons right now.

[Extra Stout]

The Spurs should draft a player who is good at both shooting and defense, and is immediately ready to contribute, and should not allow the lack of existence of such a player in this draft to stop them. If they are so smart, they should be able to conjure a player into existence.

[DAF86]

Anthony black shot 39.4% on 1.4 attempts in 17 minutes from a further 3 point line than Jimmy did in college.

So, a much better shooter than Castle. In fact, a much better prospect all around. Black in this year's draft might even go #1. Still, the chances of Black ever becoming a rotation piece are 50/50, at best. The chances of him becoming a top 5 player in a team are even lower. Those are the same odds Castle has, I fear.

I much rather have a guy like Sheppard, that projects as a Patty Mills with defensive playmaking, at worst.

[exstatic]

So, a much better shooter than Castle. In fact, a much better prospect all around. Black in this year's draft might even go #1. Still, the chances of Black ever becoming a rotation piece are 50/50, at best. The chances of him becoming a top 5 player in a team are even lower. Those are the same odds Castle has, I fear.

I much rather have a guy like Sheppard, that projects as a Patty Mills with defensive playmaking, at worst.

Black shot 30% at Arkansas, and improved his shot in the NBA. Imagine that. Not a real pretty form, either.

[DesignatedT]

I think the floor for Castle is a Marcus Smart type of player but I do think his shooting will improve and I do like the Jimmy Butler comp if he can put it all together. Just not sure there is that many other guys who have that type of upside.

[Extra Stout]

So, a much better shooter than Castle. In fact, a much better prospect all around. Black in this year's draft might even go #1. Still, the chances of Black ever becoming a rotation piece are 50/50, at best. The chances of him becoming a top 5 player in a team are even lower. Those are the same odds Castle has, I fear.

I much rather have a guy like Sheppard, that projects as a Patty Mills with defensive playmaking, at worst.

Saying that Black would go #1 is more an argument for dumping the #4 and #8 pick for whatever you can get and punting until 2025 than it is an argument for Sheppard.

[exstatic]

So, a much better shooter than Castle. In fact, a much better prospect all around. Black in this year's draft might even go #1. Still, the chances of Black ever becoming a rotation piece are 50/50, at best. The chances of him becoming a top 5 player in a team are even lower. Those are the same odds Castle has, I fear.

I much rather have a guy like Sheppard, that projects as a Patty Mills with defensive playmaking, at worst.

Nope

I like Anthony Black,and am one of his few supporters here, but the link above shows a similar physical profile, and the green dots are split about evenly.

[DAF86]

Why is he the best fit with Wemby? We don't know if his skillset will translate to the NBA.
I'm all for taking a gamble with high upside player with #8 pick, but we need someone who's guaranteed to contribute from day1 with #4.

Dillingham's shooting is a lot more "translatable" than Castle's defense. There will always be open looks to be had in the NBA. Being able to defend on the NBA as well as you did in college is a bigger challenge than knocking down open shots.

He played for Ignite that's getting disbanded, most players from Ignite are busts.
I don't care about mechanics if he's shooting 27% in G-league's worst team.
Before you mention Wemby's 3pt% in France, he was playing with grown men.

So you have a problem with 27% from NBA 3pt line on bigger volume, but no problem with 26% on wide ass open looks from the college 3pt line?

Yeah, let's get the next Patty Mills with #4 pick.

Better than getting the next Blake Wesley, tbh.

We offset those bricklayers by removing them from rotation.

So your idea is to remove those bricklayers, only to draft more bricklayers and remove them somewhere down the line?

[Mugen]

It's a high school mixtape so take with a giant grain of salt but his shot looks so much smoother here than at UCONN tbh. I don't know if he'll ever be a decent 3pt shooter but I think there's a hope for a Derozan like midrange J.

[DAF86]

I think the floor for Castle is a Marcus Smart type of player but I do think his shooting will improve and I do like the Jimmy Butler comp if he can put it all together. Just not sure there is that many other guys who have that type of upside.

I'm thinking Marcus Smart could be one of the best case scenarios. The floor is, without a doubt, being out of the league before his rookie contract runs out, tbh.

[exstatic]

The Venn Diagram of posters who are out on Topic and/or Castle (actual basketball players) because of their 3 ball and posters who are still enthused about the Thompson bricklaying twins who shot.138 and .186 when faced with actual NBA compe ion is a circle.

[DesignatedT]

Yeah, I don't see that at all. He's too good of a defender and has great intangibles. The shooting is a little shaky so I get the concern there especially since the Spurs can't shoot already but his form isn't broken and I believe he can improve his shot much like Leonard did.

[rankingtear]

I think they draft that Primo 2.0 kid before Castle. I don't see where the fit is.

[Knoxxx]

You mean he's going to be given wide open 3 PT shots? Sold!

San Antonio Spurs Interested in Drafting UConn Star (msn.com)

[Mr. Body]

Your post does bring out a couple philosophical points to consider:

1) Upside vs Floor- I'm most cases you want to err in the direction of choosing upside, but in a draft as poor as this one does that calculus change? Does upside have a lesser chance of 'hitting' than in other drafts to the point that taking the 'floor' just makes more sense?

2) Is this draft really as poor as we think? Or have we been overly influenced by media types telling is that it is?

I don't think this draft is as poor as advertised, to be honest. Last year, minus Wemby, might have been more questionable than advertised. Even if not, it got questionable pretty quickly after pick #5.

My philosophy is probably this: we have our super-duper-franchise-king. It's astounding how good he could become. Raising the floor around him is the goal. Get guys who won't make tons of mistakes, have good individual skill-sets, and could become serious long-term role-players or even more. I see a philosophy where a role-player like Risacher provides structure just by doing a role pretty well. Reason why I'm tagging Castle and Dillingham so much is one raises the floor (Castle) and the other provides star possibility while goosing the offense in a big way.

[Mr. Body]

I'm thinking Marcus Smart could be one of the best case scenarios. The floor is, without a doubt, being out of the league before his rookie contract runs out, tbh.

I would be stunned if Castle is out of the league after his rookie contract. He's just going to provide too much utility/defense to not constantly be picked up as a bench guy as a worst result. He's going to keep playing in this league for a while, imo, even if he's not a star.

[Eaglenole2002]

People need to stop talking about teams 5-7 not taking a point guard because those rosters are not static and we don’t know if they’re willing to simply take BPA in a so-called weaker draft. Who’s to say the Pistons won’t have a trade lined up to deal Ivey for a wing and like how Dilly pairs with Cunningham as a playmaking and shooting backcourt? That doesn’t even take into account many teams thinking 8 is the floor for Dillingham and could maneuver ahead of SA to grab him or whatever point guard.