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Wasn't TD also on a select team and played really well against that second dream team?
Yeah, landing firmly somewhere 6/7-10, when your lotto odds drastically fall off but you weren't really anywhere close to play-in contention will be a managerial disaster this season. You either need to be serious about tanking or be serious about competing for the play-in, and I think by the end of this coming season that's likely what we'll see: a greater compression at the bottom, and then a tighter race for the play in.
I'm including seed #5 in the lottery as a tanking victory, because you're still 42% chance at Top-4 at that point.
Last season, the gap between #5 and #6 was 3 games and the gap from #5 to #9 (the last tanker slot) was 10 games. I think we'll see that be a lot tighter this season, maybe more like 2 or 3 games from #5 to #10 this year OR we'll see a huge gap from #5 to #8 and a closer gap for play-in compe ion. We only had one compe ive race for the play-in last year, but Houston still finished 5 games back. The Nets were actually closer at 4 games out but seemed to be trying for it less (even though they were losing their pick).
I think we'll see less of a spectrum of records in the lottery and a big gulf between the tankers and the play-in wannabes. Those wanna-bes will be gifted a few extra dubs from the tankers jockeying for position.
Wasn't TD also on a select team and played really well against that second dream team?
This is probably what you're thinking of: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...ing-at-age-16/
Yeah, that might be. I forgot that story for a minute. Having said that, I still remember him on a select team that played well against the US team.
I just found it https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comment...eam_featuring/
Tim, Paul Pierce, Chauncey Billups, Shay Seals (top scored with 20), Austin Croshere pushed the 1996 Dream Team with a 17 point lead at half time, but ended up losing the game by 6. Tim went up against Shaq and Hakeem.
https://www.basketballnetwork.net/ol...te-select-team
I was pretty young back then, but I thought that 1996 Dream Team was one of the best USA squads ever.
Scottie Pippen or a more offensively talented Andrei Kirilenko are the 2 most popular comparisons I’ve seen for him. He’s an elite two-way prospect who is arguably the best defender in the 2025 Class and who’s still improving offensively, but can score at all 3 levels and shows all the traits of being a big time scorer at the next level. Not sure ATL will be bad enough to give us a chance at him, but pairing him with Wemby would be pretty nuts tbh.
He is AK2.0 with higher offensive ceiling
"Best coach in NBA history?"
Flagg "Greg Popovich"
Man, AK-47 would fit like a glove in today’s NBA. How much more his heir apparent?
Also, I don’t think we have to rely solely on Atlanta’s lottery pick. We have ours as well (unless we actually make the playoffs, which is not impossible). Assuming the Spurs and Hawks finish 9 and 10 respectively (as currently projected), those two picks combined give us about a 7.5% chance of winning the lottery, which is the same as if we had finished 7th.
Good way to look at it. Also would mean we’d have a little better than a 1/3 chance in at least landing in the top 4 which isn’t terrible…not getting Flagg there but could still mean landing an all-NBA caliber prospect.
yeah, this draft will be about 5-6 deep with Tier 1 players, but it will be impossible to finish with draft pick #5/6 unless Wemby gets injured. The good news is that we don't need to WIN the lottery; any of the top 4 would be a #2 player next to Wemby. And there will be quality players wherever we naturally land.
Somebody was telling me this draft wouldn't be teams tanking for the Flagg
Hopefully ATL "naturally lands" there. It's not out of the realm of possibilities if Trae gets hurt for an extended amount of time. That pick is ing gold and shame on people that were wiling to trade it.
Spurs need to suck this year so we can have two potential shots at the top pick.
Last year, three out of the worst four teams got booted out of the top 4 picks. Not the first time that’s happened during the flat odds era, either. The worst team’s top individual pick odds are #5 @ 47.9%, a fact that Detroit seems to be bent on proving year after year. The finish position is nice for calculating odds, which are increased by your position, but nothings in stone until the ping pong balls pop out of the hopper.
Flagg seems more like Dominique Wilkins than Scottie Pippen
I'm not that optimistic about the picks because it's either top4 or late lottery.
8 teams are going to lose games on purpose, if we assume we get #9 and #10 odds with two picks we own, it's still just 32% chance for top4.
With 0% chance for #5-8 picks, it's either top4 or staying at #9/10 as best case scenario.
My realistic best case scenario would be getting two #9-12 range picks and trading up to let's say #6 or so.
Noone's trading down from top5.
I'm not so sure that we won't finish in the bottom 8.
Nets, Pistons, Hornets, Bulls, Raptors, Wizards, Blazers, Jazz.
Which of these teams you think can have a better record if Wemby is healthy?
I think ATL is going to suck. They’re in the process of offloading assets, and only Jalen Johnson and Sarr are said to be untouchable. I can see a finish like 6 or 7 for them. Even if we do finish 9/10, that’s a 1/3 chance to draft a meaningful impact player, WAY better odds than we had for Wemby. Even if we stay at 9/10, there’s a chance to trade up with them to 6 or 7 with a team whose cupboard is bare.
My belief is that not wanting to lose is an automatic +5 to 10 in W column. And they have no reason to lose games.
Way better odds, but still bad odds.
We got lucky with Wemby, moved up to #4 and got the Raptors pick. Believing we'll get lucky again with 32% odds is kind of too optimistic for my taste.
Plus the Robinson Duncan lotto wins. Spurs are due for some bad luck in the lottery.
how dumb do you have to be to think the Hawks drafted Sarr? You got dementia don't you?
Past events don’t affect future outcomes. It’s not 32%, discounted for past luck. Besides, we weren’t lucky in 2020, 2021,or 2022.
My bad. Risacher.
that’s not how this works. Every lottery is brand new odds.
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