Spurs 2024-25 Win O/U

[scott]

Thought it might be worthwhile to look at these O/U and Tankathon rankings side by side. This is starting with the worst teams (so, draft seeding order). I'll keep this updated up through the start of the season and then we can compare with the final pre-lotto draft order. Can add other odds sources over time as well.

I presume DK would have both UTA and CHI worse than us if they weren't off right now - so both sources agree that we'd be the 9th and 10th seed (but in reverse order) for now.

Team	Tankathon 7/15/24	DK O/U 7/15	DK O/U Rank 7/15
BKN	1	19.5	1
WAS	2	22.5	2
DET	3	24.5	4
UTA	4		#N/A
CHA	5	29.5	5
POR	6	22.5	2
CHI	7		#N/A
TOR	8	31.5	6
SA	9	35.5	8
ATL	10	34.5	7
HOU	11	41.5	9
SAC	12	45.5	13
LAC	13	41.5	9
NOP	14	45.5	13
ORL	15	47.5	18
CLE	16	47.5	18
IND	17	45.5	13
LAL	18	44.5	11
MEM	19	46.5	16
GSW	20		#N/A
PHX	21	46.5	16
MIA	22	44.5	11
PHI	23	51.5	21
MIL	24	51.5	21
NYC	25	51.5	21
DAL	26	50.5	20
MIN	27	52.5	24
OKC	28	54.5	26
DEN	29	52.5	24
BOS	30	57.5	27

[exstatic]

One of CHA or TOR will hit their overs. One of those teams, along with ATL if Trae is mostly healthy, will be play-in teams.

I don’t see TOR doing that. It would be a 7 game jump to clear that hurdle. I just haven’t seen acquisitions that would lead to that kind of jump, and why move down in a draft like 2025?

I also don’t see ATL doing anything remotely like that. Their FO has been playing Jenga with their roster the past few seasons, offloading Heurter, Collin’s, DJ with little current tangible return. You keep stripping parts off, and whether you’re tanking or not, your team will collapse. Doesn’t strike me as a happy locker room, either.

The most surprising thing about this list is that for a year of obvious tanking, the lowest O/U line is 19.5, and there are only three other teams under 25. If you could pick out the obvious tankers and spread your bets on like 4 of them, you could probably cash out well. I’d definitely go under on BKN and WSH, and DET and POR are probably likely unders, too.

[scott]

Early O/Us play on the irrational exuberance of fans. I expect some of those to come down as we get closer to the start of the season after they've locked in the suckers.

[Seventyniner]

The more teams that tank, the harder it is for any particular team to go under 20 wins, especially when so many of the tanking teams will be in the same conference.

I would pick the Blazers to have the worst record in the league purely due to strength of schedule.

[KingKev]

Early O/Us play on the irrational exuberance of fans. I expect some of those to come down as we get closer to the start of the season after they've locked in the suckers.

Very little if any actual risk exchanges hands on these lines tbh.

[DPG21920]

I don’t see TOR doing that. It would be a 7 game jump to clear that hurdle. I just haven’t seen acquisitions that would lead to that kind of jump, and why move down in a draft like 2025?

I also don’t see ATL doing anything remotely like that. Their FO has been playing Jenga with their roster the past few seasons, offloading Heurter, Collin’s, DJ with little current tangible return. You keep stripping parts off, and whether you’re tanking or not, your team will collapse. Doesn’t strike me as a happy locker room, either.

The most surprising thing about this list is that for a year of obvious tanking, the lowest O/U line is 19.5, and there are only three other teams under 25. If you could pick out the obvious tankers and spread your bets on like 4 of them, you could probably cash out well. I’d definitely go under on BKN and WSH, and DET and POR are probably likely unders, too.

They way I look at it is:

It took 36 wins to be the 10th seed last season.

Pistons, Wizards, Nets aren’t likely to get there. That leave Bulls, Raptors, Hornets and Hawks for 9 & 10. And last season that was 36 and 39 wins. With teams tanking this year, those spots should have at least those amounts of wins as well.

So to me, I think CHA, ATL are the most likely to have those spots which would put them at over their totals. Bulls got worse and likely come down from 39 wins IMO after losing DeRozan and Caruso. But in theory, if Lavine is healthy, they may not step back too far since he functionally replaces DeRozan.

[DPG21920]

I’d probably take over on DET as well.

[GAustex]

Under

[spurraider21]

I don’t see TOR doing that. It would be a 7 game jump to clear that hurdle. I just haven’t seen acquisitions that would lead to that kind of jump, and why move down in a draft like 2025?

I also don’t see ATL doing anything remotely like that. Their FO has been playing Jenga with their roster the past few seasons, offloading Heurter, Collin’s, DJ with little current tangible return. You keep stripping parts off, and whether you’re tanking or not, your team will collapse. Doesn’t strike me as a happy locker room, either.

The most surprising thing about this list is that for a year of obvious tanking, the lowest O/U line is 19.5, and there are only three other teams under 25. If you could pick out the obvious tankers and spread your bets on like 4 of them, you could probably cash out well. I’d definitely go under on BKN and WSH, and DET and POR are probably likely unders, too.

poodle missed 32 games, and their breakout player scottie barnes missed 22 games. they also wont have the same in-season turnover this year as opposed to the ever looming rumors of Siakam/Anunoby moves. i think stability will do them some good.

[Ariel]

Yeah good point ex

If spurs get Lauri, gotta figure 35 becomes the new low end expectation

Exactly why I'm bearish on a 35 over right now. Vets are nice and help and things should be better than last season imho. But a win now move on a guy like Lauri is a whole other ballgame

Trading for Lauri and getting anything under 45 wins should be viewed as a colossal failure, that number wasn't even good enough to make the play in last year. Might as well fire people if that happens.

[scott]

Trading for Lauri and getting anything under 45 wins should be viewed as a colossal failure, that number wasn't even good enough to make the play in last year. Might as well fire people if that happens.

For those of us who enjoy a little cynicism… sounds like a good reason for this FO to not go and do things like pursue Lauri. They’ve got a perfect situation now, collecting those league high paychecks with no expectations. Where do I apply for jobs like this?

[Splits]

36 wins last season is the 10th seed, which ATL rolled into the #1 pick. WE ARE GETTING FLAGG

[jjspur]

If it were another coach and front office, sure I could see 35 wins, but this is pop and the spurs front office. They always have some sneaky plan up their sleeves which may or may not work. If Vassell, or Paul or even Wemby get hurt, I can easily see them tanking again. This playbook isn't new. They tanked in a so so draft, they'll surely tank in a good draft, so I'd take 35 wins with a grain of salt.

[exstatic]

If it were another coach and front office, sure I could see 35 wins, but this is pop and the spurs front office. They always have some sneaky plan up their sleeves which may or may not work. If Vassell, or Paul or even Wemby get hurt, I can easily see them tanking again. This playbook isn't new. They tanked in a so so draft, they'll surely tank in a good draft, so I'd take 35 wins with a grain of salt.

They tanked in a so so draft to get a pick to convey by positioning themselves below TOR to increase their odds. That’s not the case this year. In fact, we want to be better than ATL to push their pick that we own higher in the lottery.

If Wemby gets hurt, they won’t have to try to tank. It’ll just happen.

[Seventyniner]

The Spurs stood pat last summer and didn't even try to improve the team from the previous tanking season. They rented out their cap space for picks/swaps and cut almost every player they traded for. A hard tank would have involved sitting Wemby a lot and he would have hated it, so we got a soft tank instead.

This summer the Spurs proactively added Paul and Barnes, were interested in Brandon Ingram (per Shams, a very reliable source), and have been talking with Utah about a Markkanen trade. They aren't tanking this year at all.

[exstatic]

The Spurs stood pat last summer and didn't even try to improve the team from the previous tanking season. They rented out their cap space for picks/swaps and cut almost every player they traded for. A hard tank would have involved sitting Wemby a lot and he would have hated it, so we got a soft tank instead.

This summer the Spurs proactively added Paul and Barnes, were interested in Brandon Ingram (per Shams, a very reliable source), and have been talking with Utah about a Markkanen trade. They aren't tanking this year at all.

My problem with the whole Shams thing is that he’s a story breaker, he wants it known what he knows. Where’s the Tweet? Shouldn’t the local fish wrap guy have retweeted it? Is there a Tweet?

[itzsoweezee]

Thought it might be worthwhile to look at these O/U and Tankathon rankings side by side. This is starting with the worst teams (so, draft seeding order). I'll keep this updated up through the start of the season and then we can compare with the final pre-lotto draft order. Can add other odds sources over time as well.

I presume DK would have both UTA and CHI worse than us if they weren't off right now - so both sources agree that we'd be the 9th and 10th seed (but in reverse order) for now.

Team	Tankathon 7/15/24	DK O/U 7/15	DK O/U Rank 7/15
BKN	1	19.5	1
WAS	2	22.5	2
DET	3	24.5	4
UTA	4		#N/A
CHA	5	29.5	5
POR	6	22.5	2
CHI	7		#N/A
TOR	8	31.5	6
SA	9	35.5	8
ATL	10	34.5	7
HOU	11	41.5	9
SAC	12	45.5	13
LAC	13	41.5	9
NOP	14	45.5	13
ORL	15	47.5	18
CLE	16	47.5	18
IND	17	45.5	13
LAL	18	44.5	11
MEM	19	46.5	16
GSW	20		#N/A
PHX	21	46.5	16
MIA	22	44.5	11
PHI	23	51.5	21
MIL	24	51.5	21
NYC	25	51.5	21
DAL	26	50.5	20
MIN	27	52.5	24
OKC	28	54.5	26
DEN	29	52.5	24
BOS	30	57.5	27

No way in the Lakers are winning 45 games with that lineup. If I were a gambling man, that would be easy money

[Ariel]

This summer the Spurs proactively added Paul and Barnes, were interested in Brandon Ingram (per Shams, a very reliable source), and have been talking with Utah about a Markkanen trade. They aren't tanking this year at all.

Shams reports what they want him to report, you can go back for the Trae rumors he himself helped spread for proof. Much like Woj, he gets the scoop on certain transactions, particularly with some teams, in exchange for being of assistance to them in other situations (narrative/damage control, PR, helping spread some rumors, etc). I wouldn't say he's a very reliable source when it comes to the Spurs.

[Seventyniner]

Shams is one of the most trusted sources in the league. I don't think he would jeopardize that position by making stuff up.

The Spurs inquiring about Brandon Ingram makes sense given their interest in Paul and Barnes. That doesn't mean the Spurs would be willing to pay a premium price for Ingram.

[Dex]

Turns out 35.5 was a pretty fair line.

Spurs finish at 34. Would have been different if we hadn't lost our coach and our superstar, but that's NBA for you.

[GAustex]

Under

[LeBowen]

Will depend on if Pop actually tries to win games or continues ing around with the lineups.
If they're serious about winning, injury free and CP3 doesn't go to a contender, I'd say it's a realistic number.

Wemby will be ridiculous and a top10 player. The team will actually be functional with CP3 and Barnes, we just need Devin to take the next step.

The next step wasn't taken.

[Dex]

32-35 wins sounds about right

Good call.

also kinda doubtful on LAL hitting 44.5

Whoops...but no one could have foreseen the Mavericks gifting them freaking Luka.

[spursistan]

The next step wasn't taken.

Castle's emergence and the 2 vets better-than-expected reliability made up for Sochan/Vassell stagnation/regression..And once again the team barely misses them similar to late last season. I feel like whatever you call "The core" for this team they both don't belong to it anymore (i.e expendable)

[Dex]

Castle's emergence and the 2 vets better-than-expected reliability made up for Sochan/Vassell stagnation/regression..And once again the team barely misses them similar to late last season. I feel like whatever you call "The core" for this team they both don't belong to it anymore (i.e expendable)

The "core" of this team should now be Wemby/Fox/Castle.

Everybody else is now on the trading block.

And Sochan has become the new Collins as far as the guy I don't want to see on the floor anymore. The experiment failed, move on.