You're telling me it's rare to be good at all three things... but it's really not.
Just look at the two teams in the finals right now:
OKC - 1st in TO Forced, 6th in 3P%, 11th in REB/gm
IND - 9th in TO Forced, 9th in 3P%, 28th in REB/gm actually pretty shocking that IND was so bad in rebounding)
Or last year's champs:
BOS - last in TO forced, 2nd in 3P%, 2nd in REB/gm
I'd argue you've got to do two of the three well... even better if you can do all 3 well. It's harder, but not does not require a roster construction of unicorns to do all three... OKC has two bigs and three guards and is doing it. We can too
That was my thought as well, you basically play Rodman at C on offense and surround him with shooters.
So then, the question becomes... how good of a defender and rebounder does Sochan have to become to approach playable? Then the next question... can he realistically get there? I tend to doubt it... which is why I wouldn't extend him. And if someone wants to give positive value for him in a trade, I would.
Didn't read the entire thread, but turnover ratio is predicated on protecting the ball also, not just stealing it.
It's always possession, and efficiency - Steals (in particular ) help you win the possession battle and generate transition opportunities, which are high value shots.
The model of OKC leans on a bunch of small, STRONG, guards who can use speed to cover ground. Caruso is a guard, but he's also competent guarding 4's (and, Centres when they let him guard with extreme physicality). Jalen Williams is guard size in height too, but he can play PF. They still have size - Chet at the 4 is a ton of length. To the extent possible, they don't have a weak link defensively, and their littles are strong.
Dennis Rodman and Aaron Gordon out here catching strays.
There is no real formula other than having the best player in the league and making sure you don’t surround him with a bunch of deadweight/net negative players.
Whenever the Spurs headed into the playoffs I knew they had a chance. Why? Because my team had Tim Duncan and the other team didn’t. Spurs had “the” guy.
They put 6 or 7 really smart players (shoot/dribble/pass/defend) around Wemby - he’s going to take them to a championship. He is one of those guys. I don’t think it’s that complicated. But you never know with Brian Wright.
Building around Wemby could be complicated if he wants to do things that aren't efficient or effective for the team. VW, Fox, Castle, Harper all will want the ball. Who will adapt? To me, that's our challenge. Victor will likely need to find his spots so others can find their spots, so to speak.
True, but Victor also must develop an absolute go-to shot that is unstoppable, like Kareem’s skyhook, Tim’s bank shot, Shaq’s turnaround & knock his defender (uncalled foul) down shot, or Manu’s WTF was that shot.
Tbh if Wemby learns a midrange game then the whole league is in trouble. Imagine Wemby with a Dirk fadeaway. How tf would teams even begin to guard him? Transition dunks, half court set lobs, pump fake 3s that lead to dribble drive fade away, and then he pulls up from 3 anytime. And he plays defense?? That’s a monster of a player.
As far as scoring a lot of transition points and not turning the ball over. That has always led to winning. Since Red’s Celtic days. Even teams that don’t win championships still won a load of games just by doing those 2 things.
We already have our 3 guard line up for the next 5 years in Fox, Castle, and Harper. I believe Fox will be traded in 3 years time but I’m okay with that. But to act like a Siakim wouldn’t help this team tremendously is absurd. I’d rather have Siakim than Caruso or even Dort. Having fast guys is necessary for our team. But what is even more important than speed is decisiveness. How many times do our players catch the ball and have no idea what to do with it or hesitate on a shot and put themselves in bad positions. Our bench players need to be the opposite of our current youth. Vassell, KJ, and Sochan are too stupid to be our bench players going forward. It’s why I want Giddy and I want LaVaria and I want Kornet. Guys who just know what their role is and what to do when they’re on the court.
OKC has great positional size at PG with Shai at 6'6" and Caruso & Isaiah Joe both at 6'5", so they've almost always got a size advantage there, meaning all three of those guys can still defend effectively if switched onto a SG or a SF, while Dort and Wallace are 6'4" but both have nice wingspans and are built like linebackers, so I really wouldn't call any of those five players "small." All five are bigger (taller, longer, and/or heftier) than De'Aaron Fox, who is considered a pretty typical size for a traditional PG.
Dean Oliver 4 factors:
Shooting (40%) - team eFG% - opponent eFG%
Turnovers (25%) - team TO% - opponent TO%
Rebounding (20%) - team OREB% + team DREB%
Free Throws (15%) - team FTR vs opponent FTR
Since 2002!
I do think length is very important in this. The Thunder have a bunch of players with mega wingspans. It's even more important for the Spurs since our defenders can gamble a lot because they have Wemby back there. This will cause plenty of deflections and steals. Of course lateral agility etc. is also playing a part in this, but I'm really looking for players with large wingspans in the front court, which is why Durant fits. The Thunder are also the team that gives up the most corner 3s, but somehow teams shoot a bad percentage from there against them.
Another key for the Thunder defense is, that they have players who can guard positions up. So they can switch, put Dort or Caruso on centers, put J-Will on forwards and Chet doesn't have to guard on the perimeter to focus on protecting the rim. Spurs defense has a bit more leeway cause of Wemby. We definitely should be trying to build an even better defense than the Thunder, due to us having the best rim protector of all time on the roster.
Offensively our team is already designed to play fast and multiple ballhandlers help with that even more. We just need to keep adding players who fit that playstyle.
Spurs 4 factors
Shooting
Team efg% 54.1 League rank 17th Opp team efg% 55.1 League Rank 23rd
Turnovers
Team TO % 13.3 League rank 8th Opp team TO % 13.2 League rank 21st
Rebounding
Team OREB % 24.3 League rank 20th Team DREB% 73.0 League Rank 25th
Free Throws
Team FTR .234 League Rank 23rd Opp Team FTR .200 League Rank 1st
Height / Wingspan
Jalen Williams: 6'4.5" / 7'2.25"
SGA 6'4.5" / 6'11.5"
Caruso: 6'4" to 6'5" / 6'6"
Isaiah Joe: 6'3" / 6'7.5"
Lou Dort: 6'2.75" / 6'8.5"
Cason Wallace: 6'2.5" / 6'8.5"
Fox: 6'2" / 6'6.5"
Listings are official combine measurements, except for Caruso who I couldn't find but listed height based on an interview (says he's almost 6'5" barefoot). All in all, except for SGA they're almost all below average in height for their positions, but with large wingspan, strong build, agile, active and smart. Castle is taller than anyone of them (6'5.5") and Harper would be at the top (6'4.5"). Spurs would be fine in terms of size.
Defensive events are the key, and the core of events is deflections. Deflections lead to turnovers, but even when they don't, they can still disrupt the offense, throwing a wrench into things and benefit the defense, giving interior defenders the time they need to help, recover, and help again
Unfortunately, even the Spurs 'good' defenders outside of Wemby like Sochan and Castle are closer to Belineli and Bryn Forbes in deflections then they are Caruso and Cason Wallace
Deflections per 36 via nba hustle stats:
Caruso 6.4
Cason. 4.7
Jalen Williams. 3.9
SGA. 2.9
Dort. 2.8
Sochan. 2.3
Vassell. 2.6
Castle. 2.4
Fox. 2.7
Champagnie. 2.2
Keldon 1.8
Chris Paul. 3.1
Last Spurs playoff team
White. 2.8
Belineli. 1.3
Forbes 1.2
DeRozan. 2.0
16-17, final year of 39 year old Ginobili: 4.0
My take is that the spurs main issue is on the defensive end right now and it’s not personnel, but system. With players like castle and sochan, the spurs should be an average defensive team even when wemby sits, and yet they were the worst team out there without wemby, and they weren’t great with wemby wither with a d rating of 115.4, which would rank 18 in the league. 18 out of 30 teams, around the area of bulls and hawks, with the prospect trending as the greatest defensive player of all time.
Castle was supposed to be a defensive guard, his numbers weren’t great to be polite, finishing the year as a 3rd percentile defender based on crafted nba. Vassell came out of college as a strong defender, 11th %ile. Sochan 39th. Champaigne 36th. These are all supposedly plus defenders at some point in their careers and yet they are defending like ass.
Get a defensive system that doesn’t collapse and give up wide open threes (5th worst in attempts and 8th in %age), get some basic fundamentals around boxing out and rebounds (gave up third most OReb), stop over helping and learn to play proper position defense (gave up 6th most assists), then suddenly the spurs would be an actual competent defensive team. The personnel are definitely there, the system is clearly not.
On offense, the spurs are actually decent on 3pa (7th) and below average on %age (19th, but only 1% off 11th in the league as the variance in the middle is quite small). But the spurs were 6th worst in FTM (only 2.3 off the league leaders though) and bad on offensive rebounds (19th). The spurs were 19th in ortg and was only 0.1 off league average and 0.6 off league median. A few more offensive rebounds and aggressive drives for FTs and we are there. What the spurs lack on offense was actually finishing around 3-10 feet. They are about average in attempts and %age on 0-3 feet and three pointers, what they can’t do is scoring around the basket on post ups and creations. Wemby is actually quite weak in that regard, given his height and fluidity, and there will always be questions about whether he should be there due to his build. The spurs actually need to have someone who can do damage around the basket, or better yet, design a system that can allow players to do damage in that range to either open up threes on kick outs, or create easier opportunities close to the basket.
I don’t think Giannis is the answer, what I do think is getting castle as a big post up guard can help solve some of that problem.
The Spurs have chosen a path and have prioritized switchable defense and fast pace that I had described in the first post of this thread.
Unless the Spurs pull off a big trade for a noteworthy rebounding PF who will start on day 1 (I don’t think either John Collins or LaRavia will start on this team), it appears that they will be focused more on a mobile PF vs a PF with girth and grit. There are no twin towers coming in the future. The path is set.
My hope is that they find more defensive fiends in free agency. Crossing my fingers for NAW.
I wonder how much input Sweeney had on the #14 pick and the decision to trade #38.
This absolutely is the case and we saw the blueprint in the playoffs this year. People who argued for twin towers prior to the draft live in the past.
OKC won a le while shooting and rebounding horribly. But they had an amazing defense and were able to control the pace. This is what the Spurs should be able to improve on and also what they should be able to counter if they want to be a contender eventually.
Many here wanted Maluach so I think almost everyone is living in the past tbh
It's been obvious for some time that the idea is to play with pace and run opposition off the floor.
Jeremy is big enough to be the PF, if only he could shoot, ffs.
It would be great if Bryant develops close to Anunoby size.
We need a rim runner as the backup big, can't have slow veterans out there that can't keep up.
I do think Jeremy is working on trying to be a 3-4 rather than a 4-5. Good luck to him. As of now:
G, guard (1 and 2)
DeAaron Fox
Blake Wesley
Malaki Branham
David Duke Jr.
GW, guard-wing (1 and 2 and 3)
Dylan Harper
Stephon Castle
W, wing (2 and 3)
Devin Vassell
Julian Champagnie
F, forward (3 and 4)
Harrison Barnes
Keldon Johnson
Carter Bryant
Harrison Ingram
FC, forward-center (4 and 5)
Jeremy Sochan
Mamu
Riley Minix
C, center (5 only)
Victor Wembanyama
Bismack Biyombo
Charles Bassey
Random thoughts:
OKC has played this well in many ways. Perhaps an underrated part is finding affordable players for depth, and those affordable deep bench guys actually being able to produce and/or fit into their system. They got rid of Giddey who didn't fit. We have too many players who don't fit who make too much money.
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