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The Mavs have earned my respect this season. The Spurs can't take them or the Suns lightly, assuming Amare will be near full strength by the playoffs.
he probably did, until they won a championship. wouldn't you think someone who got close to winning a championship and never did would know exactly what a team may be lacking? barkley's suns couldn't play enough defense to beat the bulls.
The Mavs have earned my respect this season. The Spurs can't take them or the Suns lightly, assuming Amare will be near full strength by the playoffs.
Barkley keeps saying the mavs don't play defense or rebound well which if you look at the stats isn't true. He is going by reputation rather than knowledge in this case. Barkley talks like they don't rebound now rather than once the playoffs start they will struggle there. Who knows what will happen in the playoffs but Barkley's reasonings are ed up.
I remember him making disparaging remarks about SA during 2003 WCF between Dallas and SA. He was talking trash about how there was nothing to do but the River Walk, and that the women weren't very attractive there.
I think both the Spurs, and Mavs better watch out for the Suns.
well, there isn't a whole lot to do in san antonio as far as nightlife.
A comment regarding rebounding. I think it is worth expanding on this issue a little further.
Absolute numbers regarding total number of rebounds per game, defensive rebounds per game, etc. etc. do not take into account the game pace. A more precise indicator rebounding strength is the rebounding rate, i.e. the percentage of rebounds capture by a team based on the total number of rebounding opportunities available.
The rebounding rates could be defined for both offensive and defensive rebounds. Let's do this...
Team Offensive Reb % (TOR%) = TmOReb / (TmOReb + OppDReb)
Team Defensive Reb % (TDR%) = TmDReb/ (TmDReb + OppOReb)
In average, the total number of opportunities on the offensive glass are the total number of offensive rebounds + the total number of defensive rebounds the opponent gets. Similarly, the total number of opportunities on the defensive glass is the total number of defensive rebounds + the total number of offensive rebounds the opponent gets.
Running the numbers for the top 3 teams we get:
Spurs
TOR% = 10.2 / (10.2 + 29.7) = 0.25564
TDR% = 32.1 / (32.1 + 11.0) = 0.74478
Pistons
TOR% = 12.1 / (12.1 + 29.0) = 0.29440
TDR% = 28.9 / (28.9 + 11.9) = 0.70833
Mavericks
TOR% = 12.9 / (12.9 + 27.4) = 0.32001
TDR% = 29.7 / (29.7 + 11.6) = 0.71913
From these results we can draw some conclusions.
On the defensive end, the Spurs are a better defensive rebounding team than the Pistons and the Mavs. They essentialy capture 3 out of 4 defensive opportunities. The Mavs however, are slightly better defensive rebounders than the Pistons (and this may surprise some).
On the offensive end, the Spurs are the worst of the bunch. This is hardly a surprise considering the lack of offensive rebounding we have seen since the beginning of the season. This is one of the reasons Pop has gone deeper into his bench during several games. The most surprising fact for me is the outstanding offensive rebound rate by the Mavs, which again is better than the Pistons by a respectable margin (1.5%).
Let's continue the analysis a little further. The offensive rebounding rate would be greatly influenced by the coaching philosophy, in addition to the personnel strengths. For example, offensive rebounding depends heavily on whether the coach chooses to crash the boards or play back to prevent fast breaks.
Let me give you may personal take on this issue based on all the Mavs' games I've seen so far. Avery has pushed certain key players to go for offensive boards whenever possibly. These guys are Dampier, Diop, Howard, Griffin and Daniels. They are very good at crushing the offensive boards. Dampier and Diop are strong centers and the crash the offensive glass pretty good. The key here is the role of Howard and Griffin... these guys are long SFs, they don't shoot much and they attack the paint after each shot taken on the offensive end. I think these guys are critical for Avery's scheme. Daniels has excellent OR numbers for a SG as well, and likes to crash the boards.
On the other hand, the Spurs run back quite fast to prevent transistion baskets. Our only guys that look for offensive rebounds are Duncan, Nazr and Rasho. Oberto actually has an exellent OR rate, so Pop should consider giving him further minutes to improve in this area. The fact that Horry has been injured for quite some time does not help. The search for the infamous long three is something that the Spurs need desperately to improve in this area as well. Bowen has been an historically poor rebounder in general, and offensive rebounder in particular, and Manu has been injured this year (he is an historically very good offensive rebounder for a SG).
I agree with that somewhat. We used to call the Mavericks 'allas because they had no "D". Now...well...they have a little "d". Avery's brought them a long way in that regard.
Very interesting. Sounds like you're a some type mathematical guru.
The only thing I would disagree on is that Josh Howard doesn't shoot much. He's been the high scorer alot when Dirk or Terry aren't.
he's not a chucker by any means. howard may have a lot of shot attempts sometimes, but from what i have seen he takes what the defense gives him instead of looking for his own shot.
True, he isn't a volume shooter, but it isn't like he's only out there to do the dirty work. He's developing a better outside shot to add to his game as a slasher, and does look to score as well as rebound and play defense.
The Mavs as Colts is the best analogy there is across two different pro sports today. Both have won due to their offensive prowess over the last 5 years or so (and been panned for their defense). Both always have championship aspirations. And both recently had seen a improvement in their defenses which supposedly made them a real, real contender this time around.
Great insight. I would say that the Spurs make up for the weakness in offensive rebounding with their #3 ranked FG shooting %. Of course, Dallas is not weak in that department while Detroit is fairly average.
The Mavs are an excellent team, and for all the talk of their playoff failures, the team has made the 2nd round thrice, the WCF once in the last five years. Now, with more emphasis on defense, the Mavs can rely more on their defense when their outside jumpers aren't falling.
But of course, I still favour the Spurs, otherwise, I won't be much of a Spurs fan. The Spurs have better defense, better ball movement on offense, most important, stronger interior offense. Even though Duncan is not 100%, he demands a double team every time down the court, Ginobili is like the Tasmanian Devil driving to the lane, and Tony Parker has made been making a living in the paint this year. The Mavs, on the other hand, have their best big man scorer shooting perimeter jumpers. When playoffs come, open shots are rare, refs allow for tougher defense (hopefully that will hold this year), and team prep is that much better. It really has to take a really hot streak for a perimeter-oriented team to prevail in a 7 game series.
What do you think Josh Howard, Marquis Daniels, and Devin Harris are? They are all interior threats. Duncan demands a double team? Maybe in 2002 but he hardly gets double teamed anymore. The mavs also are the better rebounding team and the spurs have no one that can guard Dirk. Duncan doesn't have the mobility and Bowen is too small. I'm not so sure about the better ball movement either. Dallas does pretty good here with the spacing of the floor with Dirk and Terry along with slashers.
Dirk vs. Spurs Dec. 1st:
FG 3-13
Bruce disrupted his game all night. We do have someone to guard Dirk.
haha. Dirk usually makes those shots that he was missing in that game and Josh Howard and Jerry Stackhouse wasn't playing. If Bowen is guarding Dirk not only Dirk will go off but Howard as well. Good luck.
haha. Dirk usually makes those shots that he was missing in that game and Josh Howard and Jerry Stackhouse wasn't playing. If Bowen is guarding Dirk not only Dirk will go off but Howard as well. Good luck.
Man, I've read that kind of statement only a few thousand times.
Peter=tool
Duncan hardly gets doubled anymore? That's really news to me.
And Josh Howard, Marquis Daniels and Devin Harris are no where CLOSE to Duncan, Ginobili and Parker as interior scoring threats.
The Spurs have no one that can guard Dirk?
This season:
November 5, 2005: 12-20 - 34 points
December 1, 2005: 3-13 - 14 points
Last season:
Nov 24, 2004: 7-18: 23 points
Nov 30, 2004: 7-17: 21 points
Jan 14, 2005: 12-28: 36 points
April 7, 2005: 6-13: 16 points (Duncan didn't play, most other players played limited minutes due to blowout)
In the 6 games, there were two good games, two subpar games, and two slightly below average games, scoring-wise, for Dirk. I would expect Dirk to really go off on a team that has "no one that can guard" him, wouldn't you? And your statement about Bowen being too small to guard Dirk is curious, given how Bowen shut him down in the last game they played together. I am not saying the Spurs can shut down Dirk whenever they want, but to say that there is no one on the Spurs who can guard him is quite a stretch.
As for offensive movement, Dallas does a lot of one on one, ranking #26 this season with 18.4 apg, while the Spurs ranks 16th with 20 apg. I don't have the # of possessions per game for either team, but that would probably have some effect on raw apg numbers.
And yes, I admit Dallas is a better rebounding team, but the Spurs are better on the defensive end of the court. The philosophy of limiting opposition fast-break points does affect the Spur's ability to rebound the ball on the offensive end. And then again, the # of possessions probably makes some difference here.
Props man, this is a great analysis!
Just one thing... it seems to me that the spurs have been much weaker at rebounding this season.
No matter how good the stats says they are, it seems they tend (might be biased here) to lose defensive rebounds in crunch time situations (e.g. philly).
Any stats on that?
Who is going to guard Dirk? Horry was once the guy but he is getting old.
I just heard Dirk is questionable for tomorrow. Is that true?
I hope not but Dirk did sprain his ankle.
Bowen did a good job against him last time. In fact, the whole Spurs defense is pretty good, probably a team effort.
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