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You really don't want to play games 6 and 7 in the NBA Finals on your opponent's home turf.
HCA matters. We'd probably be looking at Detroit's B2B les were it not for our HCA last season.
The Spurs will lose again this season. Possibly more than a few times.
The Pistons will have to lose that number + 2.
I just don't see it. The Spurs priorities should be 1) Health 1A) Health 1B) HEALTH.
You really don't want to play games 6 and 7 in the NBA Finals on your opponent's home turf.
HCA matters. We'd probably be looking at Detroit's B2B les were it not for our HCA last season.
Mmmm, no, haven't forgotten that the Pistons are former champs. I understand that the Pistons and Spurs are pretty evenly matched. . . I just disagree that HCA is the vital thing to winning a championship. I think it would be better to have it than not, but if we have to have it to beat the Pistons, then . . . well, we are not good enough to win and Detroit is the better team.
That's all there is to it, the way I see. A good team will win on whatever court they happen to be playing on.
HCA is overrated, imo. If the Spurs had taken care of business in either one of games 3 or 4, HCA is irrelevant. If the Spurs had taken care of business in game 6, all this crap people constantly spew about how important it was to have game 7 at home would be irrelevant. If the Spurs can't win two games on the road (allowing for one home loss), then they don't deserve to be champs again. It's really simple, as I see it.
Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying it's not nice to have. Better to have it than not, but HEALTH is the important thing. Not worth fighting over the necessity of HCA against the Pistons if they are too injured to get past the second round of the playoffs.
And a further comment on the original post that Pop is smart enough to know the importance of HCA - I think it's worth noting that Pop has publicly stated that health is of greater importance to him than HCA, and that while HCA is a good thing, he's not pursuing it at the risk of the health of the team. So overall, I think the fans need to calm down and back off. I consider that Pop probably knows what he's doing here, three championships later. We've had league wide HCA and been swept on out of the playoffs. We've lost HCA and won championships.
"We've lost HCA and won championships."
That wasn't true in 05 or 03 when Spurs had Finals HCA.
I don't know about 99, but I'm pretty sure the Spurs had Finals HCA in 99, too.
Spurs didn't have HCA against Phoenix last year. We lost the edge to Denver as well (because of the first game loss). It is nice but not necessary.
The Lakers had a couple of non-HC championship seasons.
pistons have sucked against these low teams, and fans here are hoping the effort will come up since we're facing good teams. A good sta for the pistons, and not the spurs though: 11/17 are home games for pistons while san antonio only has half of their remaining games left. you guys are only .5 games behind (truly 1 game since we get HCA if we tie).
yes, health is more important than HCA, I'm not arguing with that. But we ARE going to be banged up this year in the playoffs.
I will vbookie my lowly stakes that the Spurs will not catch the Pistons.
I actually expect the Spurs will drop one or two of their remaining games.
Detroit on the other hand, could easily dump five. We'll see just where this Detroit team is come Wednesday night. If Miami goes into the Palace and puts a whopping on the Pistons, you can stick a fork in em. They're done for the year.
detroit could get whooped by Miami and wake up just as easily. the playoffs are still a ways off...
LOL How on earth do you fiqure that? the Pistons have most of their games left at home where they have lost just TWICE...I repeat TWICE.....they have won 14 straight at home. I fail to see how they could lose 5 while the spurs just lose a few...when the spurs have been beaten by the lakers at HOME
If pistons lose to Miami on wednesday (doubtful) it won't mean they are done at all...are you really that stupid to believe that? everyone knows the pistons are a proven team and can turn it on in the playoffs like they did a year ago.
The Spurs had HCA in all three Finals.
Didn't need it in '99 or '03, but it comes in handy in a 6 or 7 game series.
Not as vital in the earlier rounds.
The series is less likely to go seven games if the Spurs DON'T have HCA because they will be less apt to drop a game due to lack of focus.
As I said, I don't care about HCA against any other team besides Detroit, so basically, my argument of being bent on getting HCA is based on the assumption that we'll be playing the Pistons in the finals.
I think a focused Pistons team is good enough to beat as a minimum of two games in a series, and a more likely three or four games. If they're gonna beat us three times, then by definition, we'd need a game 7 to beat them and so I'd like that game 7 to be at home. Every championship deciding game 7 has been won by the home team since 1979. Look it up, trivia fans.
This might not be appropriate thread for this post, but that's never stopped me before. Here are the schedules for SA, Dallas, and Detroit...home in bold, road in italics:
Spurs:
3/21: Warriors
3/22: Nuggets
3/24: Blazers
3/26: Sonics
3/28: Clippers
3/30: Lakers
4/1: Wizards
4/4: Jazz
4/5: Kings
4/7: Mavs
4/9: Grizzlies
4/11: Sonics
4/13: Magic
4/16: TWolves
4/17: Jazz
4/19: Rockets
Home/away: 8/8
Average winning percentage: .481
Pairs of back-to-backs: 3
Games against playoff teams: between 5 and 7
Mavs:
3/21: Rockets
3/23: Warriors
3/25: Hawks
3/28: Pistons
3/29: Cavs
3/31: Magic
4/2: Nuggets
4/4: Kings
4/7: Spurs
4/8: Hornets
4/10: Clippers
4/12: Warriors
4/13: Suns
4/16: Jazz
4/19: Clippers
Home/away: 7/8
Average winning percentage: .535
Pairs of back-to-backs: 3
Games against playoff teams: 7, maybe 8 or 9
Pistons:
3/22: Heat
3/24: Pacers
3/26: Nets
3/28: Mavs
3/29: Sixers
3/31: Bucks
4/2: Suns
4/4: Hornets
4/6: Heat
4/7: Magic
4/9: Pacers
4/12: Cavs
4/14: Raptors
4/16: Knicks
4/17: Bucks
4/19: Wizards
Home/away: 10/6
Average winning percentage: .532
Pairs of back-to-backs: 3
Games against playoff teams: 11, maybe 12
~~~~~
So what does all this tell us? That Detroit probably has the toughest finishing schedule (11 games against playoff teams), and the Spurs have the easiest (.481 average winning percentage). Those late season games that Dallas plays against L.A. could be very telling...headed for a first-round matchup if the Mavs finish behind the Spurs, Clips will have a lot to prove and if they can win both, they will carry a lot of momentum into the playoffs. Here are the likely finishes for each team, in my opinion:
Spurs: 13-3 (losses to Nuggets, Mavs, Clippers)
Mavs: 13-2 (losses to Pistons and Clippers)
Pistons: 13-3 (losses to Pacers, Heat, Suns)
I think it's very unlikely that the Spurs win more than 13, and very unlikely that the Pistons lose more than 4, so HCA is theirs. Likewise, I think it's very unlikely that Dallas will win more than 13, but it's possible that the Spurs lose more than 3, so HCA in the West is still up for grabs. But, like I said, I think the Spurs will get it.
Sure will be fun to watch!
Last edited by conqueso; 03-21-2006 at 06:24 PM.
But those winning percentage are not weighted by the team's home and away percentages, and there is usually quite a large difference between home and away records.
Take that into account, and I am willing to bet that Detroit has an easier schedule by virtue of the number of home games they have remaining.
If I were a Spurs fan, I would pray for health above all else.
Im serious when I say this...
Spurs and Pistons have to stop thinking they are shoe-ins for the Finals. IMO, the Pistons are more likely to lose focus than the Spurs (Pistons say all the right things when a mic is in their face, but you can tell by the way they play that they are a pretty y bunch).
Regardless, I am starting to get nervous. This Miami game will either ease my tensions or re-enforce my su ions. Although, admittedly, the playoffs are a ways off yet. I hope Flip uses this time to impress the teams strengths and not their deficencies.
Took your advice:
Adjusted opponent's winning percentage:
Spurs - .460
Mavs - .563
Pistons - .503
They still have a tougher schedule based on the percentages...and considering that they play many more playoff (i.e. good) teams than the Spurs or the Mavs, it's clear that my point still stands. Having said that, it looks like the Pistons have the inside track on HCA...oh well.
This is HUGE. I will be happy as by splitting this. But both these games are on the road and we are dealing with injuries right now.3/28: Pistons
3/29: Cavs
Touche' then. The Mavs have it pretty rough.
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