Interesting take, but I have to take issue. There are too many variables in the equation to say that an increase in votes (as a percentage of total voters) means he was a successful President and won people over. He could be the worst President ever, but if you put up someone like Michael Moore against him, he'll probably increase his votes. We can't control for his opponent, what voters actually vote, etc. If the exact same people voted for Bush over Gore again on the same agendas, then I'd agree with your premise - but if Bush manages to get 60% of the vote, who knows if it is because he has been successful or because John Kerry sucks.