Page 2 of 2 FirstFirst 12
Results 26 to 33 of 33
  1. #26
    Ruffy RuffnReadyOzStyle's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Post Count
    24,209
    Jo, that is where I disagree with you. There is scientific, governmental and business concensus that EGW is anthropogenic. Ten years ago , I agree with you, there was a lot of debate, but the evidence for a link between humans and EGW is now pretty overwhelming.

    All the major scientific organisations in the world, like the IPCC, certainly support an anthropogenic basis for EGW, as does common sense. I'll trust the world's scientist and my own judgement on this one. , as I've already pointed out, even the coal lobby down here now admits that it's something they have to address, and we are one of the world's largest exporters of coal, and over 90% of our electricity is generated from coal, so that has serious consequences. Your own EPA admitted the anthropogenisis of EGW back in 2002:

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/2023835.stm

    There is now very little dissent on this point - guys like Lomborg (out to sell books) and Milloy (oil company lobbyist) are the only dissenters I've come across. If you can provide me with a credible primary source as to this dissent, I'd like to read it, but to suggest that there is still widespread dissent amongst scientists, governments and business leaders about this is simply not the case.

    Once again, I challenge any and all to go to their local university and discuss these things with the scientists.

    (I am both, and that's why I'm slowly going crazy! The gulf between what could be and what is and will always be sometimes keeps me up at night...)

  2. #27
    Marilyn Rae Lover jochhejaam's Avatar
    My Team
    Detroit Pistons
    Join Date
    Jun 2005
    Post Count
    7,614
    [QUOTE]
    Once again, I challenge any and all to go to their local university and discuss these things with the scientists.
    Here's an article stating that it's the media, not scientists that are claiming that there's a consensus among scientists on global warming.
    I'd like to hear your response to this when you get the time.
    p.s. I'll refrain from highlighting this time.


    Climatologists Reject Media Claims of Global Warming Consensus


    Written By: Alan Caruba
    Published In: Environment News
    Publication Date: August 1, 2005
    Publisher: The Heartland Ins ute



    Leading climatologists spent the month of June fighting false proclamations from non-scientists claiming scientists have reached agreement that catastrophic global warming is occurring.


    Alarmists Claim Debate Over

    On June 1, California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) claimed "the debate is over" and global warming alarmists' predictions had carried the day.

    The Natural Resources Defense Council on June 9 declared, "The world's leading scientists now agree that global warming is real and is happening right now. According to their forecasts, extreme changes in climate could produce a future in which erratic and chaotic weather, melting ice caps and rising sea levels usher in an era of drought, crop failure, famine, flood and mass extinctions."

    On June 13, USA Today declared, "The debate's over: Globe is Warming." In support of its claim, the newspaper cited the positions of some left-leaning religious groups, some corporations who will reap a financial windfall from a switch to alternative fuel sources, and some politicians.


    Scientists Disagree

    While each of the above claims from non-scientists received significant media coverage, leading climatologists spent the month of June rebutting such proclamations.

    Atmospheric physicist S. Fred Singer, professor emeritus of environmental sciences at the University of Virginia and former director of the U.S. Weather Satellite Service, sent a letter to the editor of USA Today directly refuting its claim. "Your editorial ... claim[s] the global warming debate is over. Not so," wrote Singer.

    Singer wrote, "Sea level will continue to rise by only seven inches per century as it has for thousands of years no matter what we do or what the EPA [U.S. Environmental Protection Agency] says. And temperatures in the next 100 years will likely rise by less than one degree F--not exactly a catastrophe."

    Added Singer in a subsequent letter to the Canadian media, "Thousands of scientists from many countries now fully understand that Kyoto and other efforts to control human emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) are ineffective and entirely unfounded scientifically.

    "Even if you ignore the enormous cost of Kyoto (estimated recently by Prof. George Taylor of Oregon State University--see http://www.sitewave.net/news/s49p628.htm--at one trillion U.S. dollars a year for full implementation in OECD countries), climate science research is rapidly moving AWAY from the hypothesis that the human release of greenhouse gases, specifically CO2, is in any way significantly contributing to global climate change."


    Sun Called Primary Cause

    "If we just look at the historical data, there is a scientific consensus that the global mean temperature has risen modestly during the twentieth century," said Myron Ebell, director of global warming and environmental policy at the Compe ive Enterprise Ins ute. "The impacts have been small and probably beneficial in aggregate. This historical data puts the onus of demonstration on those who think this gradual warming trend will accelerate and lead to dire consequences."

    The controlling driver of global temperature fluctuations, according to Dr. Benny Peiser of England's John Moore's University, is solar ray activity. "Six eminent researchers from the Russian Academy of Science and the Israel Space Agency have just published a startling paper in one of the world's leading space science journals. The team of solar physicists claims to have come up with compelling evidence that changes in cosmic ray intensity and variations in solar activity have been driving much of the Earth's climate," Peiser was quoted as saying in the May 17 National Post.

    Moreover, reports Peiser, Jan Veizer, one of Canada's top earth scientists, published a comprehensive review of recent findings and concluded, "empirical observations on all time scales point to celestial phenomena as the principal driver of climate, with greenhouse gases acting only as potential amplifiers."

    Added Peiser, "In fact, the explicit and implicit rejection of the 'consensus' is not restricted to individual scientists. It also includes distinguished scientific organizations such as the Russian Academy of Science and the U.S. Association of State Climatologists, both of which are highly skeptical of the whole idea."


    False Consensus Was Predicted

    Indeed, back in November 2004, German climatologist Hans von Storch, director of the GKSS Ins ute for Coastal Research (IfK) in Geesthacht, Germany, foresaw that claims of alarmist consensus would be made by non-scientists and even some scientists.

    Von Storch, who has yet to side with either alarmists or skeptics, warned, "We need to respond openly to the agenda-driven advocates, not only skeptics but also alarmists, who misuse their standing as scientists to pursue their private value-driven agendas."


    Media Echo Scariest Claims

    Noting the propensity of large media organizations to echo the alarmists' claims, von Storch wrote, "Judgments of solid scientific findings are often not made with respect to their immanent quality but on the basis of their alleged or real potential as a weapon by 'skeptics' in a struggle for dominance in public and policy discourse."

    Ebell agrees: "If the debate is over, why do they exaggerate so much? It seems that once some scientist makes any sort of speculation about the extent or impact of future warming that sounds even slightly scary, then we never hear the end of it, no matter how many times subsequent research refutes it.

    "After reading hundreds of scientific articles and consulting widely on what they mean and how they fit together, I am convinced that if there is a consensus, it is not alarmist," said Ebell.

    http://www.heartland.org/Article.cfm?artId=17568

  3. #28
    Ruffy RuffnReadyOzStyle's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Post Count
    24,209
    Okay, here we go.

    Fred S Singer "runs the Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP), which publicizes his own views on various topics, primarily climate change, ozone depletion, risks of chemical pollution (DDT and others), atomic power, and space policy... and was involved with the International Center for a Scientific Ecology, a group that was considered important in Philip Morris' plans to create a group in Europe similar to The Advancement for Sound Science Coalition (TASSC), as discussed by Ong and Glantz. He was also on a tobacco industry list of people who could write op-ed pieces on "junk science," [Steven Milloy, Exxon lobbyist's website] defending the industry's views."

    http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php...S._Fred_Singer

    Gun for hire? Ask your local climatology faculty what they think about him.


    Myron Ebell of the CEI:

    "In March 2001, the nonprofit Clean Air Trust named Ebell its "clean air villain of the month," citing his "ferocious lobbying charge to persuade President Bush to reverse his campaign pledge to control electric utility emissions of carbon dioxide."

    In September 2003 Greenpeace obtained evidence in the form of a [[http://www.greenpeace.org/internatio...-exxon-front-g memo]] to Philip A. Cooney dated March 2002, outlining their strategy for dealing with the problems caused by scientifically-based "Climate Action Report 2002", which the US government had submitted to the UN. The crucial paragraph of this memo reads:

    "As I said, we made the decision this morning to do as much as we could to deflect criticism by blaming the EPA for freelancing. It seems to me that the folks at the EPA are the obvious fall guys, and we would only hope that the fall guy (or gal) should be as high up as possible. I have done several interviews and have stressed that the president needs to get everyone rowing in the same direction. Perhaps tomorrow we will call for [Christine Todd Whitman] to be fired. I know that that doesn't sound like much help, but it seems to me that our only leverage to push you in the right direction is to drive a wedgge between the President and those in the Administration who think they are serving the president's best interests by publishing this rubbish." "

    http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php? le=Myron_Ebell

    Yet another hired gun. The CEI's money comes from energy companies (click on the links to see the background of each donating fund):

    http://www.mediatransparency.org/rec...recipientID=81


    Here is an in-depth deconstruction of Jan Vizier's work on solar cycles:

    http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=153


    Hans von Storch was part of the team that debunked Prof. Michael Mann's studies, and some of his criticisms were valid. However his reason for questioning the science was hijacked by the naysayers, as he states here:

    "In October 2004, we were able to demonstrate in the scientific journal “Science” that the methodological bases that led to this hockey-stick curve are mistaken. We wanted to reverse the spiral of exaggeration somewhat, without also relativizing the central message – that climate change caused by human activity does indeed exist. Prominent representatives of climate research, however, did not respond by taking issue with the facts. Instead, they worried that the noble cause of protecting the climate might have been done harm.
    Other scientists lapse into a zeal reminiscent of nothing so much as the McCarthy era. For them, methodological criticism is the spawn of “conservative think tanks and propagandists for the oil and coal lobby,” which they believe they must expose; dramatizing climate change, on the other hand, is defended as a sensible means of educating society. What is true for other sciences should also hold for climate research: Dissent is the motor of further development, Differences of opinion are not an unpleasant family affair. The concealment of dissent and uncertainty in favor of a politically good cause takes its toll on credibility, for the public is more intelligent than is usually assumed. In the long term, these allegedly so helpful dramatizations achieve the opposite of that which they wish to achieve."

    Jo, I highly recommend you read this do ent because it confronts a central theme that I know you are objecting to, and which I agree with - the way in which both sides have sensationalized the debate. And on this I absolutely agree with you - the left has actually shot themselves in the foot by warping the topic. However, at the same time, von Storch states unequivocally at the start of his testimony that:

    "Based on the scientific evidence, I am convinced that we are facing anthropogenic climatechange brought about by the emission of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere."

    He also states the following, which reflects the uncertainty in the scientific community that you describe, but also notes that the majority of climatologists (and remember, they are not the only scien sts with input into this debate) believe in anthro. EGW:

    "A considerable number of climatologists are still by no means convinced that the fundamental questions have been adequately dealt with. Thus, in the last year a survey among climate researchers throughout the world found that a quarter of the respondents still harbor doubts about the human origin of the most recent climatic changes. The majority of researchers are indeed of the opinion that global climate change caused by human activity is occurring, that it will accelerate in the future, and that it will thus become more readily apparent. This change will be accompanied by warmer temperatures and a higher water level. In the more distant future, that is, in about 100 years, a considerable increase of atmospheric greenhouse gases is foreseen, together with an increase in heavy precipitation in our la udes; in some regions there could be more powerful storms, in others weaker ones." (Note: "still harbour doubts" could refer to doubts as to our ability to predict with accuracy what the changes will be or any number of other matters - if you can track down the study he refers to, I'd like to read it).

    As you can see, I am not trying to hijack the debate or skew the sources - I'm willing to show both sides. Seriously, read von Stoch's testimony. It's a good lesson for both sides of the debate, and it is testimony to the US House of Reps, so you can't really impeach the source.

    http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/pr...ommercehvs.pdf


    Now this would have been better evidence for you to use:

    http://www.cbc.ca/news/background/ha...0background%22

    A letter to the the Canadian PM countersigned by 60 dissenting scientisits from across the globe. The question is, 60 vs how many, 10,000, 50,000? There will always be dissent on any matter, it is a question of how widespread and credible the dissent is. Evolution vs Intelligent Design is another great example of this (note: ID has been utterly debunked by mainstream science - I hope you are not a supporter of ID as science!?).

    However, if you look at that list you again you will see guys like Singer on it, and if you keep looking at the "dissenting view", the same small number of names (Singer, Ebell, Milloy) keep cropping up. I wish I could give you a list of the scientists who support anthropocentric EGW, but the list would be too long, in the 10s of thousands.

    Also, I'm sure if I had time to dig through that list a 60, I would find that many of them have partisan financial backing from big polluters inc., or their own agendas (like selling books). Now you could argue the same for the other side of the debate, but that argument is not nearly as strong when you have 10s of thousands of scientists who you are claiming are partisan to the other side.

    To close I'd like to use a little metaphor, eating badly. If I eat (ie pollute my body) I am more likely to become obese. How does obesity show itself? In a range of maladies; type 2 diabetes, heart disease, etc. Now I can get away with eating a few times a week without major repercussions because the won't overload the natural ability of my bodily systems to counteract it... but when it becomes a majority of my diet, like on "Super Size Me" for example, the purification systems become overloaded and my body starts to crumble from the inside out. We are doing something similar to the planet - for most of our history, the effect of human beings on a planetary scale has been insufficient to overload the planet's natural cycles. With 6.6bil people, 3 billion of whom are hyper-consumers (or soon to be), we've super-sized our impact and the planet cannot handle it.

    Maybe the scientists are mostly wrong, and in 50 years the dissenters will be proven right, but I highly doubt it. I have studied the evidence, and my view is that, beyond reasonable doubt, EGW is occuring and we are responsible for it. What we do about it is what we now must decide.
    Last edited by RuffnReadyOzStyle; 09-06-2006 at 02:01 AM.

  4. #29
    Ruffy RuffnReadyOzStyle's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Post Count
    24,209
    No answer, jo, or have you been busy? I thought we were having a productive discussion here.

    Just thought I'd add that this month's Scientific American is entirely devoted to articles about the energy future of the planet. If anyone wants to inform themselves about the subject, but can't be bothered tracking down the primary sources, this is probably not a bad way to go.

  5. #30
    Marilyn Rae Lover jochhejaam's Avatar
    My Team
    Detroit Pistons
    Join Date
    Jun 2005
    Post Count
    7,614
    No answer, jo, or have you been busy? I thought we were having a productive discussion here.
    Busy the 6th and yes, the discussion has been quite educational for me. It's not often that someone takes one side of an argument but is willing to admit that there is some merit to the opposing view. You have done so and I find that fair-mindedness refreshing. Nice post RnR.


    Not a real big deal but I did note a discrepency in what you posted, at least something that appears to be a discrepancy.

    At one point in your post you state that 60 dissenting scientists sent a letter to the Canadian Prime Minister and went on to question the validity of their concerns by stating that their views were up against the views of 10,000 to 50,000. Do you have a do ent of solidarity with the names of those that hold a counter-view? If not, I'm not sure it's fair to assume that because other scientists didn't sign the letter of dissent then they must oppose the 60.

    You did precede these numbers with an article stating the following; a quarter of the respondents still harbor doubts about the human origin of the most recent climatic changes.
    So the numbers of the opposition went from 1 in 4 to 1 in 833 (I realize the number 50,000 wasn't meant to be a hard number, but it is the number you posted so it's the one I worked with).
    Is there an discrepancy here or did I miss something? (not meant to come across as confrontational, just curious).



    I agree with Storch and Sterh's assertion that: "Based on the scientific evidence, I am convinced that we are facing anthropogenic climate change brought about by the emission of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere."

    I read with interest his reasoning that the the argument for anthropogenic climate change isn't based on the fact that the most recent warming is the greatest in historical times (I believe he labeled that irrelevant in and of itself) but based on the fact that the "rate of warming is markedly stronger than what has happened in the past".


    The real problem I had with the issue is as you stated; The alarmists and extremists.

    Differing views

    -There is no problem, forget about it.

    -There is a problem and it should be addressed sooner rather than later.

    -The sky is falling.

    You seem to me to fall into the middle and I think that's the reasonable position based on what science has rendered to this point.

  6. #31
    Ruffy RuffnReadyOzStyle's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Post Count
    24,209
    jo, when it comes to the 60, I think it is fair to say that those who didn't sign don't agree with them (BTW - I linked to the letter). If there was a significant groundswell of scientists who now don't believe that EGW is anthropogenic, don't you think we'd be hearing about it? I think most scientists have accepted the evidence, and feel that the debate is over, and thus don't feel the need to write their own letters - they feel they have already won the debate.

    You also have to define the word "oppose", and phrases like "harbour doubts" (that's why I want to read the study he references). Harbouring doubts could mean anything from disagreeing that it is anthropogenic to agreeing that it is anthropogenic but doubting the predictions being made...

    As for the numbers, remember, it said "a 1/4 of climate researchers surveyed" - I take that to mean climatologists. They are not the only scientists involved in this evidence - there are also ecologists, geologists, geophysicists, biologists of all kinds... in fact, climatologists are probably a small minority of the scientists who have contributed to the evidence for and reviewed the findings of the studies in support of anthroEGW. I thought you might take issue with that, but then I figured I could always point it out later.

    As for this: "I read with interest his reasoning that the the argument for anthropogenic climate change isn't based on the fact that the most recent warming is the greatest in historical times (I believe he labeled that irrelevant in and of itself) but based on the fact that the "rate of warming is markedly stronger than what has happened in the past".

    Bang! Hit nail on head! I may not have said it in this thread, but I have in other EGW threads here in the last two months - it is the unprecedented RATE OF CHANGE of the climate, in conjunction with the human impact on the atmosphere (50% increase in CO2, %150 Ch4, etc. in last 100 yrs), that links the two together. Warming/cooling cycles of this magnitude have historically taken 1000-4000yrs, this one has occured in less than a century. We simply haven't seen this in the climatic record before. That is how scientists have separated this trend from the natural cycles and background noise in the system.

    "There is a problem and it should be addressed sooner rather than later." Yup, this is me, although people like Yoni and sick will try to paint me as the later, and they are certainly the former.

    Extremism in all forms is the enemy.

    Glad that we have been able to constructively discuss this issue (I think we have both learned something here), and glad that you seem to understand the evidence.

    Cheers.
    Last edited by RuffnReadyOzStyle; 09-10-2006 at 11:54 PM.

  7. #32
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Jun 2005
    Post Count
    51,121
    No answer, jo, or have you been busy? I thought we were having a productive discussion here.

    Just thought I'd add that this month's Scientific American is entirely devoted to articles about the energy future of the planet. If anyone wants to inform themselves about the subject, but can't be bothered tracking down the primary sources, this is probably not a bad way to go.
    I found the article on nuclear power interesting.

    I really wonder if the added costs of security were factored into the costs per new kilowatt hour. I doubt a sufficient level was.

    I also noticed that they waited until the very last part of the article, after they had said how cheap etc. nuclear could be, to admit that the long-term storage of waste was still a problem that needed to be solved.

  8. #33
    Ruffy RuffnReadyOzStyle's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Post Count
    24,209
    Something interesting happened to me last night.

    Now I have been slowly researching the topic of EGW over the last 5 years or so, learning about the science and then trying to develop metaphors and such for explaining the ideas to people. This process has involved a lot of primary sources, some secondary, but I've tried to stay away from the populist stuff because I don't wat to be accused of parroting the mainstream media prima donnas who are, in many cases, warping and marginalising the debate.

    So last night Al Gore was on Denton, the best interview show in Australia. I have not heard him speak, nor read about or seen his movie - I decided purposely to insulate myself from it. So what do I find but that he is using my metaphors, dammit!? It was actually pretty funny to come across a guy whose brain came to the same solutions mine did in terms of trying to convey what is a series of complex concepts to the scientifically illiterate masses.

    Anyway, it occurs to me that Americans familiar with his message must have assumed I was parroting the guy. I swear that the metaphors and heurisitc devices I use when discussing EGW were actually my own independent creation and had nothing to do with Mr Gore! This was a case of convergent evolution (for those who don't know this term, here's a Wiki):

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Convergent_evolution

    Oh, and I must say that Gore was mostly very impressive on Denton. The transcript will be up in the next day or two:

    http://abc.net.au/tv/enoughrope/transcripts/date.htm

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •