Hollingers Spurs Preview

[SAGambler]

I look for the Spurs to win around 55 - 57 RS games, with the starting five playing fewer minutes than other teams starters. I think the Spurs will probably be #3 seed in the playoffs.

I look for Mavs and Suns to vie for the #1 seed in the West. But I also look for them to wear down their starters trying to reach that goal.

As for Houston, we will have to wait and see just how well they gel together and IF they can keep their players healthy. Yao, I don't see being able to get in any better shape to run up and down a full 48 than he has in the past. His biggest asset is also his biggest deficit. He is great until the fatigue sets in, then he becomes a liability. I just don't see Houston coming in much better than #5 in the West. The story is yet to be told whether the Spurs were a boom or a bust on the Scola/Butler deal.

I'm just excited that the season opener is on the horizon, and am looking forward to some good basketball. Winning another championship would be great for the Spurs and
put it all in perspective as to how great a team we have here.

I think we need a bit of luck along the way, keeping everyone healthly and coming together at playoff time. If the Spurs can do that, I see another trophy in sight.

[The Franchise]

While I enjoyed Hollinger's take on the Spurs, he lost all credibility with this prediction about the Rockets.

I keep hearing all this Rocket bashing but i gaurantee you none of your teams want to see us in April or May. I still think people are looking at us as last years Rockets. Last years team had a talent deficiency across the board and still won 52 games.This year we are as deep or deeper than any team in the league. If we were fourth best in the west with no offensive production, how in the do we become worse now with offense to spare, and a returning defense that was one of the leagues best? Common sense should tell you that at least one of the BIG THREE is in trouble. Don't take my word for it though i'm just a stupid Rockets fan. By Allstar break i will be looking like the most insightful MF in the basketball world!!

[SenorSpur]

I keep hearing all this Rocket bashing but i gaurantee you none of your teams want to see us in April or May. I still think people are looking at us as last years Rockets. Last years team had a talent deficiency across the board and still won 52 games.This year we are as deep or deeper than any team in the league. If we were fourth best in the west with no offensive production, how in the do we become worse now with offense to spare, and a returning defense that was one of the leagues best? Common sense should tell you that at least one of the BIG THREE is in trouble. Don't take my word for it though i'm just a stupid Rockets fan. By Allstar break i will be looking like the most insightful MF in the basketball world!!

No one is intimating that the Rockets will be worse off than last year. Anyone who follows the NBA offseason knows the Rockets probably had the best offseason acquisitions of any team. , the talent upgrade alone should translate into a deeper playoff run.

However, the problem is they've not done it yet. There's been many an NBA team that won the offseason FA sweepstakes and whose talent level looked much improved on paper, yet never "got it done" during the playoffs. In case you've never noticed, chemistry is just as important as talent. The new pieces the Rockets have added will need time to "jell together" and figure out how to play with one another. That will not happen overnight. Besides, McGrady has been never led any team past the first round of the playoffs. That doesn't mean he can't. He just has not done it, as of yet.

As far as the Rockets defense is concerned, did you forget that Van Gundy is no longer the coach? Do you really expect Bonzi Wells, Stevie Franchise and Luis Scola to either maintain or improve the team's stellar defensive effort from last year? With Yao and Mutombo manning the paint, along with Battier and Hayes on the perimeter, the Rockets will surely be a formidable defensive team again. Just don't expect them to be the same top-flight defensive juggernaut they were last year. Adelman was brought in to revive the stagnant offense. He simply doesn't coach or stress team defense with the same aplomb.

My overall point is Hollinger's prediction that the Rockets will "leapfrog" the "Big Three" Western Conference favorites into a number 1 seed is highly unlikely. A top two, three or even top four finish is much more probable.

[FromWayDowntown]

For whatever it's worth, Hollinger's numbers don't add up -- in his Eastern Conference previews this morning, he has the East going 615-615; he has the West going 617-613. That result cannot happen, since the East teams will go .500 against each other and the West teams will go .500 against each other, if the West is 617-613, the East must be 613-617. It's not a big difference in that sense. But, again, he's predicting that the East will be fully 60 games better against the West in '07-08, which strikes me as a fanciful contention (to say nothing of his belief that both Atlanta and Charlotte will reach the playoffs).

[Kill_Bill_Pana]

2006-07 Recap
Last season's edition of the Rockets had a five-man defense and a two-man offense, a system that was useful for grinding out regular-season wins and shutting down opponents but came up short when an opponent could devise a game plan for it in the postseason. As a result, Houston's season ended earlier than expected after a surprising seven-game first-round defeat against Utah.

While Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady were the stars, in a way they were secondary in how the season played out. That the Rockets' campaign went the way it did was a product of two things: (1) a lack of secondary offensive players, and (2) Jeff Van Gundy.

Let's start with the first item. The Rockets were plainly shorthanded on the offensive end, putting all kinds of pressure on their two stars to create shots. Despite having Yao and T-Mac, Houston only finished 14th in offensive efficiency, which says about all you need to know regarding the supporting cast.

Most 3-Point Attempts Per Field Goal Attempt, 2006-07
TEAM 3-PT % 3A/FGA
Houston 37.2 .290
Phoenix 39.9 .287
New Jersey 36.3 .263
Detroit 33.9 .190
L.A. Lakers 35.3 .259
League average 35.8 .213

The Rockets took a ton of 3-pointers thanks to all the attention those two players drew, leading the league with 29.0 percent of their shot attempts coming on 3s. They cashed them in, too, ranking fifth in the league at 37.2 percent.

But nobody could create a shot on his own, and the strain showed in McGrady's numbers especially. He led the league in usage rate, but his 51.5 true shooting percentage was well below the league average. It's not hard to connect the dots -- McGrady kept having to force up bad shots at the end of the clock because his teammates couldn't create anything on their own.

While it was a season-long problem, the most glaring examples came in the postseason. In Game 5 against Utah all but eight of the Rockets' field goals were scored or assisted by McGrady; in Game 7 all but nine were.

One reason Houston's offense struggled was because two potential solutions never saw the light of day. One was Bonzi Wells, who signed as a free agent but showed up out of shape, couldn't get healthy and almost immediately clashed with Van Gundy. He struggled in his rare appearances and sat out the postseason. The second was Vassilis Spanoulis, a talented pick-and-roll point guard imported from Greece whom Van Gundy unbelievably tried to use as a spot-up shooter. Spanoulis can't shoot at all, and of course failed miserably in this role before being exiled to the end of the bench. Van Gundy's mishandling of Spanoulis continued a two-decade-long pattern exhibited by the entire Pat Riley coaching tree. For some reason, Riley's disciples have trouble bringing themselves to trust any overseas player shorter than 7-6.

Field Goal Percentage Defense Leaders
TEAM OPP. FG%
Houston 42.9
Chicago 43.5
Orlando 44.2
San Antonio 44.3
Miami 44.4
League average 45.8

While Van Gundy couldn't get the offense untracked, there's no question he is one of the best defensive coaches of all time. Houston led the NBA in field goal percentage defense last season; look at this roster and ponder that for a second. While role players like Shane Battier and Chuck Hayes deserve credit for their efforts, the Rockets unquestionably punched above their weight at this end. This is nothing new for Van Gundy, however -- every team he's coached has finished in the top five in field goal defense.

Once those shots missed, the Rockets took care of business. Houston's 77.0 percent defensive rebound rate led the league by a healthy margin, with Yao, Hayes and Dikembe Mutombo dominating the defensive glass.

The lone drawback was that Houston played a low-risk defense that had one of the league's lowest rates of forced turnovers. Thus, the Rockets "only" finished third in defensive efficiency, and the defense created few transition chances for the offense.

Despite the defensive success, all was not well on the home front. Van Gundy didn't feel appreciated by the Rockets, while the team had some qualms over the stagnant offense and the fact that two key offseason pickups, Wells and Spanoulis, were barely playing. Almost immediately after the season, the coach and team agreed to part ways.



I guess Spur and Rocket fan all believe lie after ESPN reporter tell truth they still believes it? JVG LIAR he LIE he screws Wells and Spanoulis for no reason. Spur fan thinks they no need Spanoulis but they makes big mistake.

[703 Spurz]

For whatever it's worth, Hollinger's numbers don't add up -- in his Eastern Conference previews this morning, he has the East going 615-615; he has the West going 617-613. That result cannot happen, since the East teams will go .500 against each other and the West teams will go .500 against each other, if the West is 617-613, the East must be 613-617. It's not a big difference in that sense. But, again, he's predicting that the East will be fully 60 games better against the West in '07-08, which strikes me as a fanciful contention (to say nothing of his belief that both Atlanta and Charlotte will reach the playoffs).

You didnt actually think this bag's math would add up did you?

[FromWayDowntown]

You didnt actually think this bag's math would add up did you?

Actually, since he's a math guy, I did. I also didn't figure him to conclude that the East would suddenly catch up to the West in inter-conference games. But that might just be me. . . . .

[SRJ]

God, Hollinger haters are complete idiots.

[Whisky Dog]

God, Hollinger haters are complete idiots.

If he's great then why does his math not even add up?

[FromWayDowntown]

God, Hollinger haters are complete idiots.

I don't hate Hollinger, but I'm skeptical about this set of previews.

[Kill_Bill_Pana]

I don't hate Hollinger, but I'm skeptical about this set of previews.

I look before last year he predict Spur win championship and he also say Rocket finish with 50 wins ands maybe have chance finally get pasts first round. Seem he know well what he talk about to me.

[Dalhoop]

I look before last year he predict Spur win championship and he also say Rocket finish with 50 wins ands maybe have chance finally get pasts first round. Seem he know well what he talk about to me.

I would think that most people on this form would predict about the same thing. For the past five years I would give the Spurs 50-50 shot at winning it all. I would place the Rockets around 50 wins and any team with 50 win has a CHANCE of getting out of the first round.

He is a math guy and his math is off, this is a major mistake for him.

[SRJ]

If he's great then why does his math not even add up?

Oh, now I understand. Sportswriters who argue by cliche can get stuff wrong all the time and there's no problem, but if an analyst like Hollinger gets a fact wrong on occasion, his entire argument loses credibility. Got it.

I don't hate Hollinger, but I'm skeptical about this set of previews.

I wasn't referring to you FWD - your arguments are always solid.

[Obstructed_View]

So has a team ever been dominant with two bigs that are post up players? Is Yao going to be put out on the baseline to hit Rasho-type jumpers? I'm not sure how everybody sees Scola being such a great addition to the Rockets if he's not going to be the guy getting all the touches on the low block, which is why I don't really think it's such a great loss for the Spurs.

[Obstructed_View]

God, Hollinger haters are complete idiots.

They certainly seem to go out of their way to discredit him, don't they?

[screw_ston713]

ive noticed more than just hollinger picking rockets to win it all. seems to me the only ppl who are finding it hard to believe is spurs and sum mavs fans. For 1nce houston isnt considered a dark horse and a team that could sneak up on you, but actually have a shot at the le. A team with just 2 stars while 1 missed 30+ games and the rest of the roster are streaky shooters who cant create for themselves won 52 games. you now have a retooled team with numerous options on offense and sum of these rocket haters still talking about the rockets as if vangundy is the coach and we are bringing back the exact same team. everybody realizes how much rockets have improved except spurs fans hmmm

[screw_ston713]

and what has anyone proved??? its barely training camp. mavs went to the finals instead of coming back the next yr and finally getting over the hump they get bounced in the 1st round so what did they prove??? that anything can happen in the nba

[E20]

Is there a list for all the people at the Spurs training camp? I'd like to know all the people attending/that were invited.

[duncan228]

Is there a list for all the people at the Spurs training camp? I'd like to know all the people attending/that were invited.

timvp had a thread a couple of days ago.
http://spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=78684

Here's the piece from the link he had from the Express News:

20 in camp: The Spurs have invited five non-roster players to camp, though one of them missed Monday's media day activities. Dan Nwaelele, a 6-foot-5 forward who was the leading scorer for Air Force Academy last season, is expected to be on hand for today's opening training camp session.

Other non-roster invitees are Kris Lang, a 6-11 forward-center from North Carolina; Keith Langford, a 6-4 guard from Kansas; Anthony Lever-Pedroza, a 6-3 guard from Oregon; and Darius Washington, a 6-2 guard from Memphis.

http://www.mysanantonio.com/sports/b...n.31805b4.html

[E20]

Thanks.

[mountainballer]

God, Hollinger haters are complete idiots.

great.
I'm not a Hollinger hater, so I'm not an idiot.
(I guess this could be a typical Hollinger reasoning.)
IMO he is just a very bad analyst. still no hate, somebody always has to be the worst in his field of activity.
in other words, Hollinger is the Steve Francis of sports writers.
he writes (and "calculates") a lot, like Francis dribbles a lot.
then he showcases some pseudo scientific conclusions and predictions (very often not accurate), that's much like Francis turning the ball over after 23 seconds of dribbling, (which happens as often as a wrong Hollinger prediction).
but for years there were still a lot of people thinking and claiming, that Francis in fact is a good player. (two or three out there still think so. one is Francis himself)
all the dribbling and jumping and dunking didn't make up for his horrible understanding (better: misunderstanding) of the game.
most people have learned, that he is just the most overrated player of his generation.
btw. I also don't hate Francis. (not as long as he isn't at my team)

[Obstructed_View]

and what has anyone proved??? its barely training camp. mavs went to the finals instead of coming back the next yr and finally getting over the hump they get bounced in the 1st round so what did they prove??? that anything can happen in the nba

That means your team actually has a chance to go to the second round. Yee ha. Hope your superstars don't miss fifty games again and that all those talented headcases don't destroy the locker room.

[screw_ston713]

That means your team actually has a chance to go to the second round. Yee ha. Hope your superstars don't miss fifty games again and that all those talented headcases don't destroy the locker room.

How many nba teams can have their 2 best players miss significant amount of time and still be a 50 win team with the 4th best record in the league???? if tim duncan missed 30+ games and parker missed time are they still a 50 win team?? i think even through the injuries rockets showed me they had HEART. rox coulda threw in the towel when yao went down but they rallied together.

[smrattler]

Also predicts HOUSTON to win the southwest division and the number one ranking in the conference with a 61-21 record.

Obviously, Hollinger's formulas don't factor in likely injuries.

Or likely suckage, likely choking, likely lack-of-defense, likely underachieving, likely coach that looks like Bob #1 from Office Space: