Will it snow in San Antonio this week?

[MannyIsGod]

The intelligence of this debate has increased tenfold.


Thanks Manny.


It snows in this part of texas every year??


Got a link to that?


Dallas?? Panhandle???? Noooo t.

This part of Texas it never snows.


Get a life already.

A Link? What the do you need a link for? It snows in Texas every year, and you said it didn't.

And actually, we get measurable snow in this part of texas once every 3 years or so on average, so you're still an idiot if you say it doesn't snow here.

Actually Tpark, you're still an idiot regardless of any snow.

Have a nice day!

[MannyIsGod]

Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
622 PM CST SUN DEC 19 2004

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-201000-
ATASCOSA-BANDERA-BASTROP-BEXAR-BLANCO-BURNET-CALDWELL-COMAL-DE WITT-
DIMMIT-EDWARDS-FAYETTE-FRIO-GILLESPIE-GONZALES-GUADALUPE-HAYS-KARNES-
KENDALL-KERR-KINNEY-LAVACA-LEE-LLANO-MAVERICK-MEDINA-REAL-TRAVIS-
UVALDE-VAL VERDE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-ZAVALA-
622 PM CST SUN DEC 19 2004

...WARM AFTERNOONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY COLDER DAYS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...

WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS AND AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY COLDER DAYS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

HIGHS IN THE 40S ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY OVER MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...WITH A FEW 50S POSSIBLE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90. A CHANCE
OF RAIN AND COLD NORTHERLY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL ADD TO THE CHILL.

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW FLURRIES
ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHERN PART OF THE HILL COUNTRY...INCLUDING
LLANO AND BURNET COUNTIES...AND PORTIONS OF GILLESPIE...BLANCO...
TRAVIS...AND WILLIAMSON COUNTIES. THIS INCLUDES AN AREA ALONG
AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM NEAR HARPER TO ROUND MOUNTAIN TO TAYLOR.
NO SIGNIFICANT AC ULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 20S.

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
IN THE 40S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S OVER THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE 20S OVER THE
REST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FRIDAY...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 40S OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND IN THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

ON CHRISTMAS DAY AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND PARTS
OF CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE 50S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
EARLY MORNING LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S...WITH
SOME SCATTERED LOWS NEAR 20 OVER THE HILL COUNTRY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

Looks like SA is going to miss out. Not enough cold air or moisture this time around.

[MannyIsGod]

000
FXUS64 KEWX 201124 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
522 AM CST MON DEC 20 2004

ADD IN WIND ADVY

.DISCUSSION...
A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN SETS UP TODAY WITH DOWNSLOPING WEST WINDS IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
HIGHS AND SOME INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AS THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY TUESDAY, THE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE COLUMN WILL
DEEPEN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO 0.5 AND 0.75.
DESTABILIZATION ALOFT AND A BETTER MOIST FEED OFF THE GULF WILL
COMMENCE TUESDAY NIGHT JUST IN TIME FOR THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

A MYRIAD OF LOWS IN THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAMS HAVE CAUSED
THE MODEL RUNS TO SHIFT THE DEVELOPING ROCKIES TROUGH A LITTER
FARTHER WEST WITH EACH RUN. THE UPSHOT IS STILL AN OCCASIONAL PHASED
LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE VORT
MAX DIGS OVER THE ROCKIES BEFORE EJECTING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S., AND WHICH PART OF TEXAS, IS UP FOR QUESTION.
ALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD AIRMASS ARRIVING IN SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY MORNING AFTER SUNRISE. THE SOURCE REGION OF
THE AIRMASS IS NORTH OF ALASKA WHERE TEMPS ARE RUNNING -35 TO -40
FAHRENHEIT. AFTER THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOVES
THROUGH TEXAS WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER WILL FOLLOW ON FRIDAY WITH A PHASED
NORTHWEST FLOW LASTING THROUGH SUNDAY.

CAN EXPECT SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT HILL COUNTRY, AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY MORNING MOST SECTIONS. NOT MUCH RAINFALL
SINCE PRECIP WATER VALUES STILL LACKING AND STEERING WINDS ARE NEAR
40 KTS. WILL NOT REMOVE THE FEW SNOW FLURRIES FROM THE HILL COUNTRY
FORECAST SINCE THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH TIMING. IT
MAY HAPPEN, IT MAY NOT HAPPEN. MOST TIME THE MOISTURE LEAVES BEFORE
THE AIR GETS COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FROZEN PRECIP.

The problem appears that it keeps arriving earlier. If they timing were to hold the front off untill wednesday night, then without the sun to heat temps above freezing when overrunning occours, we'd at least have ice but more thank likely snow flurries or some light ac ulations.

But it's coming in about 10 hours too soon. Bummer.

[Taco]

I'm getting my snow chains out!!!






Mrs Taco says I put them on too tight

[MannyIsGod]

BTW, I was going over the models, and they point to a rainy new years eve. ing bummer.

[GrandeDavid]

Kori, snow in February in San Antonio last year I don't recall, however, I do recall an ice storm.

[travis2]

It snowed. Wasn't much...and it had melted off by 9 AM or so...but it was snow...

[Hook Dem]

Just remember...Jan 1985, we were supposed to get some flurries and it snowed 15 inches. You just never know. I do know that if they put it in the forecast, it probably won't happen. If they don't, it often "sneaks"up on them. Snow always comes in from the southwest here in San Antonio. It is caused by overrunning. Stay tuned!

[MannyIsGod]

000
Fxus64 Kewx 211602 Aaa
Afdewx

Area Forecast Discussion...updated
National Weather Service Austin/san Antonio Tx
952 Am Cst Tue Dec 21 2004

.update...
Focus This Update Concerns Frozen Precip Thursday Night/friday
Morning. Gfs Model Soundings Indicate Temp Profile Below Freezing
Throughout The Column Across The Cwa. Moisture Will Be Limited And
Any Snow Developing Will Suffer Evaporation On The Way To The
Surface. Therefore...went With Snow Flurries. Area Of Coverage
Should Be Roughly Along And North Of Highway 90. Otherwise...little
Change To Earlier Forecast. Very Pleasant Today Ahead Of The Big
Weather Change Starting Wednesday.

&&

.prev Discussion...
At 06z...vad Wind Profiles And Satellite Imagery Bear Out The
Increasing Southerly Winds And Boundary Layer Moisture. Goes
Derived Precipitable Water Shows 0.50 Inch Has Reached Austin With
0.75" About To Move Into Atascosa And Karnes Counties. The Eta 850mb
Winds Are Verifying Well With The Profiler Winds. At Present The
Cold Front Is Booking South At 25 Kts Into North Texas. A Surface
Trough Just West Of The Rio Grande Is Progged To Moves East Across
The Southern Half Of Texas Today. This Along With A Re ing
Westerly Flow Aloft Will Have The Cold Air Arriving In The Hill
Country As Early As 6 Pm. The Myriad Of Upper Troughs Traversing
The U.s. Will Allow The Cold Air To Gradually Build South Into Texas
Through Friday. Tonight Lows Will Be At Or Slightly Below Normal.
Increasing Cloudiness Wednesday Night And Cold Air Advection Will
Bring In Lower Dewpoints And Much Colder Air. The Next Vort Max Is
Due To Arrive Thursday Night While The Deeper Cold Air Is In Place.
May Get A Chance At Freezing Rain With This One With Ac ulations
Of Less Than 1/4 Inch. Full Blow Dry Northwest Flow Is In Place By
Friday Afternoon With Clearing Or Cleared Skies And Lighter Winds.
Christmas Morning Could Be The Coldest With Temps Approaching Record
Levels. For The Start Of Next Week, The Upper Flow Quickly Become
Southwesterly With Temperatures Returning To Seasonal Normals.

[travis2]

Ok, now does this mean it happens anywhere in San Antonio, or at the offical airport weather station?

bump this question...it never got answered.

Also...define "measurable".

[MannyIsGod]

measurable by NWS defentiion is anythign more than a trace

so .01 inches of snow would be measurable

[MannyIsGod]

btw, .75 inches of precipitable water will produce over 2 inches of snow, however, there won't be that much around by the time thursday and friday nights roll around.

if it's as high as .75 though, we'll definetly see ac ulations. But the higher the moisture the warmer the air stays, so it's a balancing act. They'll probably update the discussion by 5pm, and the model predictions get more accurate as the day actually gets closer.

[Taco]

Gimmie an S!!!

[Kori Ellis]

bump this question...it never got answered.

Also...define "measurable".

Anywhere in San Antonio.

Anything more than a trace.

[MannyIsGod]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
320 AM CST WED DEC 22 2004

.DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WILL MOVE SOUTH RAPIDLY
THIS MORNING HELPED ON BY A PROGRESSIVELY MOVING UPPER TROUGH. THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND LIGHT RAIN.
THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD BY DARK WITH COLD ARCTIC AIR SPILLING
IN BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG DRY LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION OVERNIGHT WILL PLUNGE READINGS INTO THE LOW 20S HILL
COUNTRY BY DAYBREAK. NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP COLD RIDGE IN PLACE
TOMORROW AS TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH NEAR 40 DURING THE
DAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TOMORROW. ENHANCED DIFLUENCE AND
JET ACTIVITY AHEAD OF A DIGGING LOW INTO NORTHERN MEXICO WILL
PRODUCE SNOW FLURRIES TOMORROW NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS
OF THE AREA..THEN INCREASE SLIGHTLY AREAWIDE AS SNOW DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME..SOME AC ULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY BUT WILL
WAIT FOR ADDITIONAL DATA TO INDICATE HOW MUCH. A SECONDARY SURGE OF
COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE EARLY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED FROM
NEAR 30 NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY TO THE MID 30S SOUTHERN PORTIONS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL FILL AND SHIFT EASTWARD RAPIDLY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SNOW ENDING. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ENTER CHRISTMAS DAY. SHOULD BE
COOL AND DRY CHRISTMAS DAY BUT WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. WINDS ALOFT
SHIFT TO WESTERLY SUNDAY WITH A WARMING TREND ON TAP AND THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY WHEN ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A CHANCE OF RAIN NEXT TUESDAY.

It's on, the way the jetstream is setup it's dragging colder air than anticipated in AND in addition it's bringing in moisture. It's ing ON>

[Manu20]

Looks like it is going to snow in south texas

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville Texas
320 am CST Wednesday Dec 22 2004


Discussion...an exceptional weather event continues to shape-up for
our region...as an Arctic airmass enters the semi-tropics with ample
moisture and cold temperatures off the surface to initiate winter
weather in the Rio Grande valley. Temperatures at or below 0 degree c
are forecasted by both ETA model and GFS from 22.0000z model runs. The
availability of moisture during the entrenchment of this rather high
stack of cold temperatures remains a high probability from early
Friday morning through 6 PM Saturday afternoon. Algorithms for snow
ac ulations from both GFS and ETA model suggests the possibility of
minor snow just west of the Rio Grande valley late Friday
afternoon...entering the western valley by 06z Saturday...then
absent after 06z Saturday through the forecast period. This in
itself is exceptional...as this algorithm is highly skewed away from
the ability to generate snow in the semi-tropics...therefore most
likely under-played. Current temperature forecasts by ETA model and GFS
are in good agreement and show good run to run consistency. ETA model GOES
out to 12z Friday morning...and places surface freezing temperatures
over the extreme western valley at that time...with 0 to -7 degrees
c 850 temperatures extending from a line from mfe to Raymondville (0
degree c)...west to Zapata (-7 degree c). During this period...moisture
streams northwest from the Gulf of Mexico over the cold
airmass...with GFS showing moisture advection even more aggressive
and continuing from 12z Friday to 18z Saturday...with quan ative precipitation forecast of 0.25 to
0.50 earmarked for most of the Rio Grande valley all day Friday.
Temperatures in mfe are forecast to be 32 degrees f by dawn...and rise
..if any...One or two degrees f all day Friday. All of the wintry
indicators for Friday are reinforced by projected Saturday morning
temperatures of 24 degree f in mfe...26 at pil (just 5 miles from the
Laguna madre)...25 degree f in both bro and hrl. A hard freeze warning
may be necessary from Friday through Saturday morning...as
temperatures are forecasted to dip from Friday morning lows of 31 degree f to
Saturday morning lows of 29...and I might add the Sunday morning
radiational freeze of 29 degrees f over many areas of the Rio Grande
valley.


This forecast continues on the same track as the previous
thinking...with a skew to higher probability of precipitation Friday with more aerial
coverage of frozen precipitation...colder temperatures Saturday and
Sunday...with a hard freeze possible Friday through Sunday...fog
restricting visibilities to 2sm for most of Friday through Saturday...as
wet-bulbing occurs. A decision on any need for winter weather
advisories or the extent of the freeze or freezing rains during the
Friday through Saturday period will likely be made today. This event
is so foreign and abnormal for our region that a closer scrutiny of
the synoptic situation and any prudent weather products will be made
by a team of several meteorologists at the National Weather Service
office in Brownsville later today.

[Taco]

Rally for LJ !!!
As many of you know LJ has not seen snow in SA
If it does NOT snow let's all Rally at Kori & LJ's house with our Snow Cone / Raspa / Ice shaver machines and we'll cover the Ellis front yard with man made snow!!!


Oh yea Mouse, remember
DON'T EAT THE YELLOW SNOW!!!

[1369]

Looks like LJ may see aome snow on the ground after all...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
320 AM CST WED DEC 22 2004

.DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WILL MOVE SOUTH RAPIDLY
THIS MORNING HELPED ON BY A PROGRESSIVELY MOVING UPPER TROUGH. THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND LIGHT RAIN.
THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD BY DARK WITH COLD ARCTIC AIR SPILLING
IN BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG DRY LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION OVERNIGHT WILL PLUNGE READINGS INTO THE LOW 20S HILL
COUNTRY BY DAYBREAK. NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP COLD RIDGE IN PLACE
TOMORROW AS TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH NEAR 40 DURING THE
DAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TOMORROW. ENHANCED DIFLUENCE AND
JET ACTIVITY AHEAD OF A DIGGING LOW INTO NORTHERN MEXICO WILL
PRODUCE SNOW FLURRIES TOMORROW NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS
OF THE AREA..THEN INCREASE SLIGHTLY AREAWIDE AS SNOW DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME..SOME AC ULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY BUT WILL
WAIT FOR ADDITIONAL DATA TO INDICATE HOW MUCH. A SECONDARY SURGE OF
COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE EARLY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED FROM
NEAR 30 NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY TO THE MID 30S SOUTHERN PORTIONS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL FILL AND SHIFT EASTWARD RAPIDLY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SNOW ENDING. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ENTER CHRISTMAS DAY. SHOULD BE
COOL AND DRY CHRISTMAS DAY BUT WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. WINDS ALOFT
SHIFT TO WESTERLY SUNDAY WITH A WARMING TREND ON TAP AND THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY WHEN ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A CHANCE OF RAIN NEXT TUESDAY.

[samikeyp]

*doing my snow dance just for LJ*

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

Just don't let it snow until I get home on Christmas Eve...then it can snow all it damn wants.

[MannyIsGod]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
255 PM CST WED DEC 22 2004

.DISCUSSION...LATEST GFS RUN CONFIGURES THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH AND
POSSIBLE BRINGER OF SNOW AS AN OPEN WAVE. THUS...SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH FASTER AND WITH LESS QPF POTENTIAL. LATEST ETA CARRIES
EVEN LESS QPF. MAY GET LITTLE MORE THAN FLURRIES HERE AFTER ALL
BUT WITH CONTINUED RUN TO RUN UNCERTAINTY WILL GO WITH FLURRIES
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. CHRISTMAS MORNING QUITE COLD ESPECIALLY IF ANY SNOW
LINGERS. WARMING TO START CHRISTMAS DAY AND EXTEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN EAST NEXT
WEDNESDAY.

Well, this one isn't nearly as optomistic as the one last night, but I still think we're in for snow.

The ETA model has been falling short on everything so far, and the GFS is closer, but has been falling short as well. In the Valley they are predicting snow because of how badly the models have been handling the forcasts down there, and I think that somewhat should apply to this as well. The models don't have enough historical information onthis type of weather in South Texas, especially in the valley to account for everything accurately and so they get thrown into a loop, kinda.

They have a 30 percent chance right now here, and 60% chance in the valley!!! But the valley will probably get more rain than anything, with maybe some ice and snow. They have a lot more moisture but the air just isnt' as cold down there.

If the low coming through can get strong enough to generate more lift we'll have enough moisture to eek out a couple of inches, maybe a bit more.

I just have a good freaking feeling.

[Kori Ellis]

So Manny, you think it's coming tonight?

Or Friday?

[Spurminator]

It just snowed today here in Dallas Texas.

We may actually get off work early, which has to be hilarious for all of the Northerners who work here.

[MannyIsGod]

It'll all be Friday unless we get some really really late Thursday.

This won't just be at night however, if it happens it will happen during the daytime hours of Friday. The high Friday is only going to be at 33, so it'll be cold enough the entire day.

[Shelly]

I am not happy about this. Not happy at all