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  1. #26
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    I did. I find the theory sound when dealing with possibilities that actually exist.
    (grins) You want a fight over "does man-made global warming exist?"

    As the guy in the video points out, you can fight guys who are much better at this sort of stuff than I am, like say, the National Academy of Sciences.

    I will go to town on economics, finance, military affairs, geopolitics, and energy, but I have long ago given up on trying to debate "yes/no global warming".

    You can no more conclusively prove causality than the side you propose to debunk, despite your statements otherwise. The fact that you say "it doesn't exist" actually proves little other than your unfamiliarity with the scientific method.

  2. #27
    I don't really care... Yonivore's Avatar
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    Say scott! How'ya been? Apparently, that never get's old.

    35 Inconvenient Truths

    A spokesman for Al Gore has issued a questionable response to the news that in October 2007 the High Court in London had identified nine “errors” in his movie An Inconvenient Truth. The judge had stated that, if the UK Government had not agreed to send to every secondary school in England a corrected guidance note making clear the mainstream scientific position on these nine “errors”, he would have made a finding that the Government’s distribution of the film and the first draft of the guidance note earlier in 2007 to all English secondary schools had been an unlawful contravention of an Act of Parliament prohibiting the political indoctrination of children.

    Al Gore’s spokesman and “environment advisor,” Ms. Kalee Kreider, begins by saying that the film presented “thousands and thousands of facts.” It did not: just 2,000 “facts” in 93 minutes would have been one fact every three seconds. The film contained only a few dozen points, most of which will be seen to have been substantially inaccurate. The judge concentrated only on nine points which even the UK Government, to which Gore is a climate-change advisor, had to admit did not represent mainstream scientific opinion.

    Ms. Kreider then states, incorrectly, that the judge himself had never used the term “errors.” [a variation of which I've seen repeated in this forum. --Y] In fact, the judge used the term “errors,” in inverted commas, throughout his judgment.

    ***

    Ms. Kreider then says, “The process of creating a 90-minute do entary from the original peer-reviewed science for an audience of moviegoers in the U.S. and around the world is complex.” However, the single web-page en led “The Science” on the movie’s official website contains only two references to articles in the peer-reviewed scientific journals. There is also a reference to a do ent of the IPCC, but its do ents are not independently peer-reviewed in the usual understanding of the term.

    ***

    Ms. Kreider says the IPCC’s results are sometimes “conservative,” and continues: “Vice President Gore tried to convey in good faith those threats that he views as the most serious.” Readers of the long list of errors described in this memorandum will decide for themselves whether Mr. Gore was acting in good faith. However, in this connection it is significant that each of the 35 errors listed below misstates the conclusions of the scientific literature or states that there is a threat where there is none or exaggerates the threat where there may be one. All of the errors point in one direction – towards undue alarmism. Not one of the errors falls in the direction of underestimating the degree of concern in the scientific community. The likelihood that all 35 of the errors listed below could have fallen in one direction purely by inadvertence is less than 1 in 34 billion.
    The memorandum goes on from there to itemize 35 errors in the movie, "An Inconvenient Truth."

    So, we go from "...thousands and thousands..." of fact down to a few dozen and, of those, 35 are FUBARed?

    Okay, I'll watch the movie now...it should be a real hoot.

  3. #28
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    I find it rather amusing that conservatives have taken up "no global warming" as some kind of cause celebre with the only aim being to discredit the green movement.

    As the video in the OP points out, I do not have to be an expert on such things to figure out a course of action.

    You have made up your mind, Cobra, and that is good, but don't pretend you have "conclusive" proof anymore than the thousands of scientists who disagree with you.

    For me, it is not my area of interest/expertise. Until we have some greater scientific consensus, I will act on the probability that those thousands of scientists aren't lying and have some decent reason to believe they are correct.

    If you want an argument about the specifics, you will not get it from me.

  4. #29
    Veteran Wild Cobra's Avatar
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    BUT

    For the record: nuclear power sucks sweaty monkey balls, for a lot of reasons.

    Not that I am against nuclear per se, I just don't see it as very practical.
    I disagree. We have learned many things about nuclear safety that activist pressures keep us from applying.

    Distributed solar and wind will step up to the gap, as will very clean coal.
    Clean coal is what we use in the USA. We need to get China to use it. It still produces CO2 for those concerned about greenhouse gasses.

    Long term, nuclear will fall by the wayside for things like this:

    Space-based solar power

    The sun puts out more energy in 2 second than mankind has ever used.

    Solar power in space offers 24 hour power uninterrupted by clouds/storms.

    It might not even be horribly efficient, but when you can build a collecting array 200 miles long by 200 miles wide, it doesn't have to be.
    Hmmm.... about 1 Giga Watt and less power per cm than a cell phone? At 1 square KM surface antenna, the intensity has to be about 100 milli-watts per cm, or is my math wrong? I don't consider that low intensity, but it is at least at safe levels should the transmission get knocked out of alignment temporarily.

    At least they might be on a right path here.

  5. #30
    Veteran Wild Cobra's Avatar
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    You can no more conclusively prove causality than the side you propose to debunk, despite your statements otherwise. The fact that you say "it doesn't exist" actually proves little other than your unfamiliarity with the scientific method.
    Probem is that there is no evidence when looked at closely that we are causing global warming, except for the black carbon issues. Propaganda is the major force here.

    Have you noted for example how many IPCC scientists were actual climatologists?

    You are right. I cannot conclusively say what I imply. However, the probability that I am wrong is so rediculously small, we are more likely to be wiped out by an asteroid.

  6. #31
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    Nuclear power sucks sweaty monkey balls because at the end of the day, you still have to dispose of the waste, something politically impossible.

    If you think otherwise, we can locate the facility 10 miles from your house.

    I know that modern reactor designs are very safe. Safety isn't as much of an issue to me, as the increased amounts of fuel and waste shipments required, and the determination of a certain suicidal segment of the human population's determination to use materials from fuel/waste shipments as major components of carbombs.

    In the end it will be about ecnomics. The economics of making the extra plants, fuel and waste shipments secure from suicide attacks will drive up the costs of that power far beyond what nuclear proponents either know about, or would admit if they did.

  7. #32
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    The thing about microwave power transmission is that it can be attuned so that you can literally stand on the antenna while it is working.

    Microwave ovens cook because the frequency used is absorbed by water and other organic matter. It is a simple matter to simply attenuate the transmission into a band that is not harmonic with organic matter.

  8. #33
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    The main barrier to space based power is, as the article points out, cost.

    The main cost driver for space based power is the cost of getting things into orbit, roughtly 5-10 thousand per pound.

    The easiest way to overcome this cost is avoid it.

    The easiest way to avoid it, is to use materials that are already near the earth in the construction. A manufacturing facility at a LaGrange point using asteroid material (asteroids are VERY rich in metals) can crank out simple panels at ZERO cost to the environment, other than the rocket exhaust from servicing missions.

  9. #34
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    Here is something on asteroid mining for the more scientifically and business minded.

    The first company or nation to get into space in a big way will reap MASSIVELY.

    We can let that be China or India, or we can do it. after we get the first real infrastructure built, private industry will pick up the ball and get things rolling, to create a self-sustaining and profitable space-based economy.

    (shrugs)

    It is possible now, except for the political will. Sad really, because it has the potential to improve living standards world-wide.

  10. #35
    Displaced 101A's Avatar
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    I find it rather amusing that conservatives have taken up "no global warming" as some kind of cause celebre with the only aim being to discredit the green movement.

    As the video in the OP points out, I do not have to be an expert on such things to figure out a course of action.

    You have made up your mind, Cobra, and that is good, but don't pretend you have "conclusive" proof anymore than the thousands of scientists who disagree with you.

    For me, it is not my area of interest/expertise. Until we have some greater scientific consensus, I will act on the probability that those thousands of scientists aren't lying and have some decent reason to believe they are correct.

    If you want an argument about the specifics, you will not get it from me.
    Meh.

    If the global warming alarmists spent even 1/10th the amount of time on the debunking websites reading stuff that they do on the greenie sites, I *might* have some modi or respect for them.

    As it is, I have come to one inescapable conclusion.

    The "GW" movement is a religion.

  11. #36
    Retired Ray xrayzebra's Avatar
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    I find it rather amusing that conservatives have taken up "no global warming" as some kind of cause celebre with the only aim being to discredit the green movement.

    As the video in the OP points out, I do not have to be an expert on such things to figure out a course of action.

    You have made up your mind, Cobra, and that is good, but don't pretend you have "conclusive" proof anymore than the thousands of scientists who disagree with you.

    For me, it is not my area of interest/expertise. Until we have some greater scientific consensus, I will act on the probability that those thousands of scientists aren't lying and have some decent reason to believe they are correct.

    If you want an argument about the specifics, you will not get it from me.

    RG, they haven't taken up: No Global Warming! Most
    just say mankind is not causing it. The temp of the
    Earth has always fluctuate and always will.

    As for the scientific consensus part. Many said the
    world was flat and that everything revolved around
    the earth. And those two things were by a consensus
    of scientist of that period. They were wrong, weren't
    they? Now I will give you one point, we, I, could be
    wrong and we are causing it. But like you, someone
    with more credibility than RNR and Gore and a bunch
    of earth worshipers are going to have to convince me.
    I just don't think mankind can affect the whole of the
    earth. Maybe a small area, but not as a whole.

  12. #37
    Veteran Wild Cobra's Avatar
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    The thing about microwave power transmission is that it can be attuned so that you can literally stand on the antenna while it is working.

    Microwave ovens cook because the frequency used is absorbed by water and other organic matter. It is a simple matter to simply attenuate the transmission into a band that is not harmonic with organic matter.
    I was in the field of communications for 10 years, specifically microwave communication. I now a thing or two about them.

    Now consider if we allow an intensity of 1 watt per centimeter, which would be safe for such an undertaking, it would take one billion centimeters of are to capture 1 giga-watt, assuming a perfectly confined beam. It would take the pattern of a circle most likely, and be a diameter of 357 meters (0.222 miles). OK, we can fit quite a few satellites and recieving station at that size. Not to disrupt communications? I'm not qualified for that, but I'm going to assume the power has to be reduced to the mid microwatt/cm levels not to interfere with satellite recieves that operate at pico-watt levels, by the minor troposheric scattering. Let's say 100 microwatts. That is 1/10,000th the power, and we now need a reciever 100 times larger in diameter, or 35.7 km (22.2 miles) What type of impact does that have over the ocean or desert? How many of these giga-watt producing facilities can the earth accomodate before running scare of land or sea for other reasons?

    Where does the real power levels and size come in at? I can only guess, but there are problems involved with such things.

  13. #38
    Retired Ray xrayzebra's Avatar
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    Nuclear power sucks sweaty monkey balls because at the end of the day, you still have to dispose of the waste, something politically impossible.

    If you think otherwise, we can locate the facility 10 miles from your house.

    I know that modern reactor designs are very safe. Safety isn't as much of an issue to me, as the increased amounts of fuel and waste shipments required, and the determination of a certain suicidal segment of the human population's determination to use materials from fuel/waste shipments as major components of carbombs.

    In the end it will be about ecnomics. The economics of making the extra plants, fuel and waste shipments secure from suicide attacks will drive up the costs of that power far beyond what nuclear proponents either know about, or would admit if they did.
    You are right on the disposal of waste material. It has
    been politicized to the point it has become one of those
    "not in my backyard" things.

    You made the statement a couple of post back about
    wind power. Well the environmentalist are ing
    now that the wind turbines are killing the birds. Coal,
    like WC said, gives off CO2 and anything else that burns.
    And all these do-gooders are ing they are
    destroying the earth. So are we suppose to do?
    Do without I suppose.

  14. #39
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    I was in the field of communications for 10 years, specifically microwave communication. I now a thing or two about them.

    Now consider if we allow an intensity of 1 watt per centimeter, which would be safe for such an undertaking, it would take one billion centimeters of are to capture 1 giga-watt, assuming a perfectly confined beam. It would take the pattern of a circle most likely, and be a diameter of 357 meters (0.222 miles). OK, we can fit quite a few satellites and recieving station at that size. Not to disrupt communications? I'm not qualified for that, but I'm going to assume the power has to be reduced to the mid microwatt/cm levels not to interfere with satellite recieves that operate at pico-watt levels, by the minor troposheric scattering. Let's say 100 microwatts. That is 1/10,000th the power, and we now need a reciever 100 times larger in diameter, or 35.7 km (22.2 miles) What type of impact does that have over the ocean or desert? How many of these giga-watt producing facilities can the earth accomodate before running scare of land or sea for other reasons?

    Where does the real power levels and size come in at? I can only guess, but there are problems involved with such things.
    This is waaaay beyond my area of expertise to answer. From what I remember, the size of the receiver is roughly analogous to the size of most power plant facilities.

  15. #40
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    You are right on the disposal of waste material. It has
    been politicized to the point it has become one of those
    "not in my backyard" things.

    You made the statement a couple of post back about
    wind power. Well the environmentalist are ing
    now that the wind turbines are killing the birds. Coal,
    like WC said, gives off CO2 and anything else that burns.
    And all these do-gooders are ing they are
    destroying the earth. So are we suppose to do?
    Do without I suppose.
    the birds. If they can't figure out how to avoid the things, our needs for power trump their survival. I am something of an environmentalist, but even *I* have my limits.

  16. #41
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    Meh.

    If the global warming alarmists spent even 1/10th the amount of time on the debunking websites reading stuff that they do on the greenie sites, I *might* have some modi or respect for them.

    As it is, I have come to one inescapable conclusion.

    The "GW" movement is a religion.
    This stuff is actual science, and beyond my capabilities to adequately assess. If you tell me that you have the expertise to effectively evaluate it, I would likely not believe you.

  17. #42
    Veteran Wild Cobra's Avatar
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    This is waaaay beyond my area of expertise to answer. From what I remember, the size of the receiver is roughly analogous to the size of most power plant facilities.
    OK, how large is that? Any idea?

    Just look at it this way. The total power received divided by the receiving antenna's area in centimeters will give an average power per centimeter rating which is a standard measurement.

    1 gigawatt = 1,000,000,000 watts. Rather than using the standard power per square centimeters, I'll look at watts per square foot. Consider the following graph:



    Now if we had a perfect beam from the satellite, we could trap nearly all the radiated power. There will be quite a bit of loss just from the fact line of sight transmissions have scatter. Still, assuming a small power plant generating 100 mega-watts with a 20 acre receiving field, anyone walking in the area will receive a continuous 100+ watts of radiation! How is this safe at all?

    A standard parabolic antenna wouldn’t work for the satellite transmitter very well because they don’t produce a tight enough pattern. How does one generate that much power of coherent microwave energy? How powerful can a MASER be made? Since they operate with resonance chambers, containing any amount of high power is next to impossible.

    I wonder if this is all just a dream, or if these problems have been addressed.

  18. #43
    Veteran Wild Cobra's Avatar
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    the birds. If they can't figure out how to avoid the things, our needs for power trump their survival. I am something of an environmentalist, but even *I* have my limits.
    If a power station collector is the size of a standard power plant, how will the birds avoid being cooked by the microwave oven effect?

  19. #44
    Veteran Ignignokt's Avatar
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    One can apply this same logic to going into Iraq.

  20. #45
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    OK, how large is that? Any idea?

    Just look at it this way. The total power received divided by the receiving antenna's area in centimeters will give an average power per centimeter rating which is a standard measurement.

    1 gigawatt = 1,000,000,000 watts. Rather than using the standard power per square centimeters, I'll look at watts per square foot. Consider the following graph:

    Now if we had a perfect beam from the satellite, we could trap nearly all the radiated power. There will be quite a bit of loss just from the fact line of sight transmissions have scatter. Still, assuming a small power plant generating 100 mega-watts with a 20 acre receiving field, anyone walking in the area will receive a continuous 100+ watts of radiation! How is this safe at all?

    A standard parabolic antenna wouldn’t work for the satellite transmitter very well because they don’t produce a tight enough pattern. How does one generate that much power of coherent microwave energy? How powerful can a MASER be made? Since they operate with resonance chambers, containing any amount of high power is next to impossible.

    I wonder if this is all just a dream, or if these problems have been addressed.
    It depends on the frequency of that power, if memory serves. I can find a link or two can get back to you on this one.

  21. #46
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    If a power station collector is the size of a standard power plant, how will the birds avoid being cooked by the microwave oven effect?

    Actually my response was aimed more at wind generators than microwave power receivers.

  22. #47

  23. #48
    Veteran Wild Cobra's Avatar
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    Actually my response was aimed more at wind generators than microwave power receivers.
    I know that. However, you refered to how dumb birds are flying into the blades. My point was that birds cannot avaid being cooked by radiation they cannot see. I have my limits too. I can also say the birds that are too dumb to avoid another moving object, but an unseen threat...

  24. #49
    Veteran Wild Cobra's Avatar
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    I like the third link. Thanx. I'm downloading some of the PDF files.

    Still, the simple fact is that what ever power you bean down, simple math tells you the power levels per area. Frequency matter to the extent that the higher the frequency, the smaller the actual antenna element is to collect a full wave energy signature, and that the atmosphere attenuates the power of some frequencies more than others. Also, the higher the frequency, the more sensitive the design is to phase problems. Without looking at a detailed graph, it appears most frequencies under 10 GHZ are usable. 10 GHZ is a 3 centimeter wave.

    I have a pretty extensive knowledge of the sciences. I have modeled this idea and every time I found a problem, I found a solution. It is very feasible if we ignore the dangers of the power densities. If we use a 1 GHZ signal, we can have a phased array of transmitters in space. One example would by a 100 x 100 array each transmitting 100 k watts. Now we wouldn't use a simple box design, but for simplicity of example, it will suffice. The farthest two transmitters could be as far as 1.3 km apart in space, and their signals would be no more than 1 cm different at the earth receiver, or about 12 degrees of phase. The math gets a little more complex here, need trigonometry to see the power change. Still, 12 degrees has a minor effect on the power, but the less the better for efficiency. This 0.94 km would also be a 9.4 meter spacing between transmitters, whereas a meter or less would be sufficient, reducing the phase farther. I earlier mentioned problems in the coherent power, then though of using a single driver signal with phase control, going to multiple s (Traveling Wave Amplifier Tube.) I've used them as powerful as 10,000 watts, why not 100,000 watts each?

    Still, the major problem lies with my very first assessment. Power densities are too high. They present unacceptable dangers. To make a large enough field to reduce the power density then gets you into the phase problems as well, canceling out usable power.

  25. #50
    I don't really care... Yonivore's Avatar
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    You would think this would have been as newsworthy as Algore being awarded the Nobel Peace Prize.

    A United Nations scientist has refused the Nobel prize that he (as part of the IPCC) is supposed to share with Al Gore, and for the most damning possible reason.

    The scientist (IPCC member John R. Christy) claims that the prize was based on a misunderstanding of science:

    Has the global warming alarmism movement hit its apex? Maybe so. In recent weeks, we've seen a resurgence of hard scientists who have come out strongly against the warm-mongers, the latest of which is Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change member John R. Christy who in an editorial in today's Wall Street Journal tells the world that not only does he not believe no one's proven humans cause global warming, he's refusing his "share" of the Nobel Peace Prize that he was awarded because it was based on a misunderstanding of science.
    Sheffield quotes from Christy's piece in the Wall Street Journal which explains further:

    I've had a lot of fun recently with my tiny (and unofficial) slice of the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize awarded to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). But, though I was one of thousands of IPCC participants, I don't think I will add "0.0001 Nobel Laureate" to my resume.

    The other half of the prize was awarded to former Vice President Al Gore, whose carbon footprint would stomp my neighborhood flat.....

    [...]

    It is my turn to cringe when I hear overstated-confidence from those who describe the projected evolution of global weather patterns over the next 100 years, especially when I consider how difficult it is to accurately predict that system's behavior over the next five days.

    Mother Nature simply operates at a level of complexity that is, at this point, beyond the mastery of mere mortals (such as scientists) and the tools available to us. As my high-school physics teacher admonished us in those we-shall-conquer-the-world-with-a-slide-rule days, "Begin all of your scientific pronouncements with 'At our present level of ignorance, we think we know . . .'"

    I haven't seen that type of climate humility lately. Rather I see jump-to-conclusions advocates and, unfortunately, some scientists who see in every weather anomaly the specter of a global-warming apocalypse. Explaining each successive phenomenon as a result of human action gives them comfort and an easy answer.
    What Christy has done amounts to high treason, if not outright apostasy.

    Fortunately, the global warming alarmists don't issue fatwas or behead people, so I think he won't suffer the extreme penalty.

    I admire him for his skepticism.

    But I'm old enough to remember when skepticism was considered an integral part of science. And the idea of heresy was thought of in religious terms (and medieval ones at that).

    Considering the resurgence of the heresy meme via newly invented morality in so many areas, I sometimes wonder about something.

    Do humans need heresy? Is it possible that there is a deep-seated human need to regard certain views as heresy? I wouldn't go so far as to suggest that there might be a heresy gene, but it seems to occupy a stubborn emotional niche, especially for those who believe in collective thinking, and it is not going away. I realize that people want definitive answers to unknowable questions as well as questions which are over their heads. But what is it that drives intelligent people to want such definite answers so badly that they must label dissenting views as heretical, immoral, and downright evil?

    I wish I knew.

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