"Setting Sun" Game Prediction Thread

[GrandeDavid]

Spurs 104
Suns 96

Spursgal, Amare Stoudamire is not in the same class of Tim Duncan, although he is a very nice young player and is really shooting the lights out this first half of the season. So I don't think Duncan will get neutralized. That's going a bit too far. Now, if Duncan's thumb is sore or if he catches a virus or for some odd reason gets struck by bad luck, all of which very well could happen, then neutralization could happen. However, I certainly wouldn't predict it. I think Duncan will have his way on both ends of the floor as there will be no surprises tomorrow night. The Spurs and Duncan all know very well how strongly Phoenix has started the season.

[Kori Ellis]

This may be counter to what many people believe, but Quentin Richardson is the key to the Suns. If you can shut him down you can beat them. If I were Pop I would put Bowen on Q-Rich.

Therein lies the dilemma. The Spurs will probably need to run a very different lineup against the Suns. They should run Duncan, Bowen, Devin, Manu, Tony.

That way Bowen can take Marion and Devin can be on QRich. Rasho should see very little playing time against Phoenix. He won't match up well defensively against any of them.

[Experiment2100]

Therein lies the dilemma. The Spurs will probably need to run a very different lineup against the Suns. They should run Duncan, Bowen, Devin, Manu, Tony.

That way Bowen can take Marion and Devin can be on QRich. Rasho should see very little playing time against Phoenix. He won't match up well defensively against any of them.

That is another dilema in itself. Should the Spurs go small? Pheonix has suckered it's opponents into playing their type of game, that is why they are so successful. I think that the Spurs should stay big, after Amare their tallest starter is 6'7". If they get a good game from either Rasho/Horry/Rose. They may force pheonix to put in one of their crappy bigs. Thus forcing Pheonix into playing Spurs ball.

[Mark in Austin]

CC, you're absolutely correct that "Q has settled into his new team and is playing his best ball of the year..has been tearing it up outside recently...".

However, you are making a mistake by not comparing those numbers to Marion's over the same period. Using the three game span you reference (doesn't include the most recent game against Toronto) for Richardson's 44% (11-25) performance; Marion shot 52.9% (9-17)from downtown, and outscored Richardson 25.6 ppg to 18.3 ppg.

Taking a larger sample, over the last five games, Richardson is shooting 40% from behind the arc (18-45), but Marion is shooting 51.9% from behind the arc (14-27). Marion averaged more points, rebounds, blocks, steals, was more efficient with his shots, and was a better free throw shooter than Richardson over this span.

Overall in December, Richardson is shooting 42.5% overall and 41.4% from behind the arc. In that same month, Marion is shooting 50.2% overall and 42.6% from behind the arc. Marion is scoring more, and doing it more efficiently.

No doubt Richardson is finding his groove, and really turning into an offensive force, but I think it would be easier to deal with a big game from Richardson than a big game from Marion. Richardson might heat up and start shooting lights out, but it seems like when Marion heats up, other things start happening for the Suns. He starts finding every loose ball, offensive rebounds become second chance points with more frequency, etc.

I'd rather Richardson go off for 25 or 30 points than have Marion hit for 25 or 30 on a higher percentage, pull in 15 rebounds, and go 3-6 from downtown. Bowen has historically been pretty effective on Marion, so I would stick with what has worked there. Devin can D-up on Richardson almost as well as Bowen can.

Bottom line: by any measure, as hot a Richardson has been, Marion has been hotter.



edit - added more from new thread responses

The Spurs will probably need to run a very different lineup against the Suns. They should run Duncan, Bowen, Devin, Manu, Tony.

That way Bowen can take Marion and Devin can be on QRich. Rasho should see very little playing time against Phoenix. He won't match up well defensively against any of them.

Nice to see somebody else would match up the same way I proposed to.

[ladiesman]

Thank you!
After all these intelligent insightful posts by fans who actually can tell the difference between basketball and grass hockey your take is so refreshing!

What is wrong with my prediction? The suns are a very athletic team, and Rasho seems to have problems with those types of teams. I will not go as far as Sequ has gone by saying the Spurs having a vagina in the middle, NOT YET anyways.....

[tlongII]

CC, you're absolutely correct that "Q has settled into his new team and is playing his best ball of the year..has been tearing it up outside recently...".

However, you are making a mistake by not comparing those numbers to Marion's over the same period. Using the three game span you reference (doesn't include the most recent game against Toronto) for Richardson's 44% (11-25) performance; Marion shot 52.9% (9-17)from downtown, and outscored Richardson 25.6 ppg to 18.3 ppg.

Taking a larger sample, over the last five games, Richardson is shooting 40% from behind the arc (18-45), but Marion is shooting 51.9% from behind the arc (14-27). Marion averaged more points, rebounds, blocks, steals, was more efficient with his shots, and was a better free throw shooter than Richardson over this span.

Overall in December, Richardson is shooting 42.5% overall and 41.4% from behind the arc. In that same month, Marion is shooting 50.2% overall and 42.6% from behind the arc. Marion is scoring more, and doing it more efficiently.

No doubt Richardson is finding his groove, and really turning into an offensive force, but I think it would be easier to deal with a big game from Richardson than a big game from Marion. Richardson might heat up and start shooting lights out, but it seems like when Marion heats up, other things start happening for the Suns. He starts finding every loose ball, offensive rebounds become second chance points with more frequency, etc.

I'd rather Richardson go off for 25 or 30 points than have Marion hit for 25 or 30 on a higher percentage, pull in 15 rebounds, and go 3-6 from downtown. Bowen has historically been pretty effective on Marion, so I would stick with what has worked there. Devin can D-up on Richardson almost as well as Bowen can.

Bottom line: by any measure, as hot a Richardson has been, Marion has been hotter.



edit - added more from new thread responses



Nice to see somebody else would match up the same way I proposed to.

The problem with your strategy is that closing out on Marion's perimeter game does not alter the Suns' strategy very much. Marion is a terrific offensive rebounder and the primary objective should be to keep him outside. Richardson has a greater volume of shots from the perimeter and therefore the Spurs should make the defense against him on the perimeter a priority. I also don't believe that Devin Brown can match up with Q-Rich although Bowen probably can.

[Mark in Austin]

It's not so much simply closing out as it is having Bowen in his face constantly. No open perimeter shots, no open cuts to the lane wit the ball or to come in for an offensive rebound. The primary objective on Marion should be to keep him out of his comfort zone in all aspects of the game. The best defender the Spurs have with the savvy to do this is Bowen.

Say what you will, I'm more concerned with the player with the more efficient offensive game than the "volume shooter".

[polandprzem]

Should we go small or big?

I think we will know what works in the game , during the game.
I would start with starting 5 then check in what Robert Horry shape is. Try go small with Devin at SF.
hard to predict. Go big slow down Suns.

transition defense the key to victory.
The worst thing will be to play static ball. Motion offense must be perfect. Limit the turnovers, crash the boards.

[gophergeorge]

If we don't shoot better than 75% from the charity stripe against the Suns.... We lose.

[ChumpDumper]

If the Spurs can control the pace and get one of their starters in foul trouble....

Easier said than done.

Pop was pretty slow to react to Doc's small ball, and it was apparent that the players hadn't practiced it much because they had no idea how to rotate on D and the offensive spacing was often pretty crappy. One would hope they will go over it before the Suns game in case plan A doesn't work.

[Matrix]

I think it will be a lot like the Sea v Phx, Sac v Phx and Min v Phx, all close games, nail bitters and flat out entertaining. It should be fun.

[Sportcamper]

The Suns are the only team in the league with two players, Steve Nash (15.7 ppg, 11.1 apg) and Shawn Marion (20.3 ppg, 11.3 rpg) averaging a double-double... Teammate Amare Stoudemire just misses at 25.3 points and 8.8 rebounds...

Still the Lakers have given them two tough games...The Suns barely getting the win...

Spurs-102... Suns-95

I have not picked one all year...I am due I tell ya!

[milkyway21]

the Spurs will win this game.
Reason: Duncan

[ShoogarBear]

tlong is no troll.

More like an orc.

[Kori Ellis]

Suns 105
Spurs 101

[Sense]

This will be a tough game, believe it. The suns are very fast, and we struggle when trying to keep up. But overall I think our defense will fail, however we will win.

102-97