I think Mohammed made a huge difference to those Spurs, if only because his presence meant that the Spurs didn't have to start Rasho throughout that playoff run. Nazr was 5th on that team in playoff scoring and 2nd in rebounding, so it's pretty tough IMO, to argue that he made no difference or that things would have been the same with Malik coming off the bench. Plus, Nazr's deal was far more cap-friendly for the Spurs than Malik's was.
Barbosa is pretty good, but there's also no evidence to suggest that the Spurs would have drafted him had they kept that pick. The best argument in your favor is that keeping the pick might have encouraged the Spurs to draft Josh Howard. Then again, the justification for dealing the pick in the first place was to clear cap room to make a push to acquire Jason Kidd while replacing David Robinson.
New York turned around and drafted David Lee with the pick that the Spurs dealt for Mohammed.

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