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I was born in 69
Yeah, but I suspect that with this second wind she's getting, she'll start stripping the varnish off of Barak Obama.
I was born in 69
Gen Xer. Same here.
Even if Hillary won the remaining 16 contest, which she won't, mathmatically there is no way possible for her to make up the delegate deficit. Her only argument that she has now is that she has won the big states, CA,OH,NY, etc... Honestly I think that she knows that she has no chance. I think she is dragging this thing out so as to force the hand of the democratic party to make her the senate majority leader. She knows she has no real chance at winning the nomination. Obama's margins of victory during that streak pretty much ended it for her.
@ the guy on the youtube vid...he basically laid out the "most optimistic" scenario for Clinton with her winning 3 of the 4 states and capturing 30 delegates....which came true!!!!
He then makes the assumption that the superdelegates will vote the way of the pledge delegates at the convention....which is a completely false logic.
Especially if she continues to close the gap in pledged delegates, then she can make the claim that millions of people DID vote for her and that this was a closely contested campaign...not some blowout that she's asking the supers to "steal" back for her with their vote.
Add to that her strongest argument....she won nearly every swing state and big state that a democrat must win to capture the nomination, and in most cases she won those states handily.
So, yes....she CAN win the nomination.
The question then becomes....can she win the general?
I think Clinton's experience is overrated, but I also think Obama's judgment is overrated. Both candidates have very similar positions on the issues, so for anybody issue-oriented there isn't much reason to go to McCain if your candidate goes down. As far as Obama being tough, he started politics in Chicago, as tough a place as any. His toughness just hasn't been as visible what Clinton has gone through. I think you'll see Obama rebound, but if Clinton can win most of the rest of the primaries, she will have a good case.
While you may be right, it doesnt matter who wins the Dem nomination anymore.
McCain has it all wrapped up in November (barring seom major scandal).
As of today, McCain campaigns for the Presidency. What are the Dems doing? Oh thats right, bickering with one another.
Losers who were born to lose. There is something to be said for solidarity, something Dems lack entirely.
I suspect he is going to do that all by himself. He has
already shown he cant handle the press when the questions
get a little tough.
Yeah, thats the same thing I'm starting to think too. McCain now can just sit back and watch the dems tear one another apart.
Hillary can claim whatever she likes, but the facts remains that she still trails in the pleged delegate count by a pretty wide margin....I know one of your your pet fantasies is to see the Democratic party crumble just to please Hillary so that McCain can get swept in office in the general, but get real man.....the super-delegates will go with the candidate who has the most pledged delegates -book it!
He then makes the assumption that the superdelegates will vote the way of the pledge delegates at the convention....which is a completely false logic.
Especially if she continues to close the gap in pledged delegates, then she can make the claim that millions of people DID vote for her and that this was a closely contested campaign...not some blowout that she's asking the supers to "steal" back for her with their vote.
Add to that her strongest argument....she won nearly every swing state and big state that a democrat must win to capture the nomination, and in most cases she won those states handily.
So, yes....she CAN win the nomination.
The question then becomes....can she win the general?
dan, you lose! Nothing is written in stone in the dimm-o-crap
party. Deals, deals, deals, you take care of me, I take care
of you.
You want to make book. Bet on Florida and Michigan
coming back to life........political reality.
Look, Hillary needed wins in Texas and Ohio last night just to stay alive....Obama didn't, he's likely to win a majority of the delegates who are left leaving him with a commanding lead when all the voting is said and done...Florida and Michigan knew the consequences if they moved their primary dates up, don't expect any 'back-room deals' to re-seat those delegates...
And kiss Florida and Michigan goodbye in the general election..Great plan..
dan, it aint over till the fat lady sings. And like I have said before,
I don't even hear her warming up. It is going to the convention
to determine who the winner is. Clinton, inc. wants this
nominiation, boy do they, and Obama may have come up in
Chicago politics, but he hasn't seen anything yet.
If Florida and Michigan are reseated, it'll have to be through another election or caucus. Results still favor Obama, even if loses, as the margin of victory for either candidate will be much closer.
I'm cool with that but let them vote.. If Obama kicks Hillary's ass then so be it.
Yep....numbers don't lie...
LinkDNC-Sanctioned Contests
Obama 12,920,961
Clinton 12,322,695
Including Florida
Obama 13,497,175
Clinton 13,193,681
Including Florida And Michigan
Clinton 13,521,832
Obama 13,497,175
It takes MI, where Obama did not get ANY votes, for her to get the popular vote. Even with Florida alone, he has the popular vote.
Don't count him out just yet. He's got a very, very well co-ordinated camp. He has the backing of some extremely skilled politicians (Kennedy), many who are working day and night for him right now (Daschalle).
No, I'm pretty sure she still wins. Just not by a margin large enough to make a splash in the delegate differential.
So if Clinton catches him with the popular vote then what? There is only a 30,000 + difference.. she could win PA by 3 times that margin..
Don't doubt your statement whatsoever. He has proven
he is a player. But it is going down to the wire. As a
conservative I am loving every minute of it. And with
the Rezko (sp) trial coming up and Obama needing
to deflect things, boy-o-boy, things are going to get
interesting. And forgive me, but I can't help thinking
about old Larry Flynt just setting in the wings waiting on
Billary to beckon to him. Slim is what slim is. Politics.
No ray clinton's going to play dirty politics.. and Obama's don't stink either..he's the second coming.. haven't you heard?
I have no "pet fantasies" about the democrats tearing eachother down and going to the convention so that McCain gets an easy ride into the White House.
After the nominee is chosen there is still two months for the democratic candidate to make their case to the American people. You can point to any number of reasons why it will be difficult for McCain to secure the presidency...
1) Economy leaning towards recession
2) Unpopular stance on unpopular war in Iraq
3) No elaborate domestic policy (i.e. make tax cuts permanent and de-regulate)
4) Member of the "old guard" in Washington
And so on and so forth....
I didn't make the claim that Hillary could win because it plays out some "fantasy" or that I actually think she's easier to beat in November. I legitimately think she can win, and I think my case is fairly compelling.
If she's NARROWLY behind in pledged delegates and/or popular vote by the time the convention rolls around, she can make the case that she has won the last two major battleground states (OH and FL) handily, that she's more prepared to lead, and that she's the "known quan y".
These "party insiders" are supposed to know a of alot more than Average Joe Voter, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them exercise their independent vote if the margin of difference in pledge delegates and/or popular vote is minimal.
Look at those numbers....
Right now it's at a paltry 600K voters with almost 27 MILLION having voted already. And if she captures Pennsylvania by a decent margin, which is looking plausible, she'll cut into that lead even further.
I'm saying that even if she's down in the popular vote by the time this gets to the convention, if it's tenths or hundredths of percentage points, don't think for a second that Superdelegates won't exercise their right to vote independent of their voting districts or of the general outcome.
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