Active Hall-of-Famers

[MoSpur]

Manu might be on that list next year. He has so many intangibles.

[FromWayDowntown]

I'm actually surprised Manu doesnt have more consideration for his world accomplishments...

That's because this list is purely statistical and based on accomplishments in the NBA. I'm presuming this is the Hall of Fame probability metric from basketball-reference.com. The probabilities created by the metric are based primarily on statistical achievements, leading the league in categories, making All-Star teams, winning post-season awards with a small bonus for team accomplishments. Manu will never do well from a statistical standpoint -- Tim Duncan doesn't really, either -- but I don't think this metric was ever intended to be a definitive measure.

By the way, the odds seriously favor Dirk's enshrinement. He has the best NBA resume of any European player ever. He's a dominant shooter and among this generation's greatest scorers. And, say what you will, but he's won the MVP award. The theory will get tested over time, but every past MVP who has become eligible for the Hall of Fame has been enshrined. Michael Jordan, David Robinson, Hakeem Olajuwon, Karl Malone, Shaquille O'Neal, Tim Duncan, Allen Iverson, and Kevin Garnett are all no-brainers to be enshrined as well. That leaves Nash (who's going to make it, in my opinion) and Dirk, and I'd say that Dirk's resume is sufficient to warrant enshrinement if he were to retire tomorrow.

[LocosPorJuana]

If they placed grant hill on that list, yao ming should be included..The man has united cultures. The same goes for manu.

Oh and horry should also be considered. The guy has won everywhere he's played, with the exception of PHx.

[remingtonbo2001]

When did the Hall of Fame get so trashy?

[Galileo]

I just did a calculation. Once Lebron gets to 400 games played, he will be rated a 97% chance of making the Hall.

The chart only considers those with 400 games.

That seems reasonable as it would put him # 8 on the current chart. All those ahead of him have won an MVP or multiple les, or both.

Ginobili makes the Hall based on other non-NBA achievements.

[jag]

I really wonder if Manu will make it or not...

[romad_20]

Looks like it doesn't take into account anything but NBA stats:


For the Hall of Fame problem, I tried to use as many predictor variables as I could think of, but I did not use statistics that have not been kept for most of the NBA's history (e.g., steals). My player pool consisted of players who had played a minimum of 400 NBA games and had been eligible for at least one Hall of Fame election. After trying numerous models, my final model had eight predictor variables:

height (in inches)
last season indicator (1 if 1959-60 or before, 0 otherwise)
NBA points per game
NBA rebounds per game
NBA assists per game
NBA All-Star game selections
log(NBA MVP awards won + 0.5)
NBA championships won
All of the predictors listed above were significant at the 0.03 level except for log(NBA MVP awards won + 0.5), which had a P-value of 0.1621. However, every NBA MVP award winner who is eligible for the Hall of Fame has been elected, so I thought it was important to keep that term. Other than height, all of the predictors had positive coefficients. ABA statistics, honors, and championships were not important predictors of Hall of Fame status, which is why I only used NBA statistics in my final model. I don't like ignoring the ABA statistics, but that's what the voters have apparently done. Keep in mind that my goal was not to determine who should be in the Hall of Fame, but rather who is likely to be in the Hall of Fame.

The table below gives the parameter estimates of the coefficients for each of the seven predictors:

height -0.1608
last season indicator 4.2612
NBA points per game 0.4616
NBA rebounds per game 0.3181
NBA assists per game 0.4350
NBA All-Star game selections 0.5769
log(NBA MVP awards won + 0.5) 5.3361
NBA championships won 1.0773

Manu will make it because of International compe ion. We all know he's a winner on every level he's played on. I do still think the NBA should have it's own wing and induct it's own players in each year, since it's the pinnacle of the sport. The basketball Hall takes all levels of basketball into the hall of fame.

[JamStone]

Kidd is more than a lock than Iverson.

Disagree. But, at any rate, I think both are a lock.

[Supergirl]

31. Robert Horry 0.0288

That to me says there's something wrong with their math.
Horry should be a HOF lock. With as many rings as he's won, with his clutchness, winning with as many different teams as he had - come on.

And to have Vince Carter and Chris Webber ahead of him? What the have those two done?

[freemeat]

1. Shaquille O'Neal 1.0000
2. Tim Duncan 1.0000
3. Allen Iverson 1.0000
4. Kevin Garnett 1.0000
5. Kobe Bryant 1.0000
6. Steve Nash 1.0000
7. Manu Ginobili 1.0000 (It's a BASKETBALL HoF -- not just NBA)
8. Dirk Nowitzki 0.9992
9. Jason Kidd 0.8852
10. LeBron James (A career-ending injury would not keep him out...)
11. Chauncey Billups .8500 (Finals MVP, 2 appearances anyone?)
12. Robert Horry (7 Rings and counting...most clutch player ever...Duh...)
13. Paul Pierce 0.8487
14. Ray Allen 0.8145
15. Tracy McGrady 0.8000
16. Grant Hill 0.6997
17. Yao Ming 0.6500 (again, basketball in general...his influence is monumental)
18. Vince Carter 0.6500
19. Gilbert Arenas 0.5708
20. Chris Webber 0.5000

FIXED...in my own way. When all is said and done, TP will be considered along with Chris Paul and Deron Williams...they just need more time, IMO.

[JamStone]

31. Robert Horry 0.0288

That to me says there's something wrong with their math.
Horry should be a HOF lock. With as many rings as he's won, with his clutchness, winning with as many different teams as he had - come on.

And to have Vince Carter and Chris Webber ahead of him? What the have those two done?

Steve Kerr and Kurt Rambis and John Salley too?

[timmy21_4rings]

I do not think the following are HOF players:

8. Vince Carter 0.9401
10. Tracy McGrady 0.8593
11. Paul Pierce 0.8487
12. Ray Allen 0.8145
13. Grant Hill 0.6997
14. Chris Webber 0.6594
15. Gilbert Arenas 0.5708

I also think Nash, Kid and Dirk will have hard time to enter into HOF. Nash has never gone to Finals.

[FromWayDowntown]

Steve Kerr and Kurt Rambis and John Salley too?

Michael Cooper is really pissed at you . . . .

[SenorSpur]

Lebron James
Dwyane Wade
Carmelo Anthony

I know these guys are just four years into their careers. But based on the numbers they're putting up, and their Olympic contributions, they should be headed in that direction.

[Manudona]

Lebron James
Dwyane Wade
Carmelo Anthony

I know these guys are just four years into their careers. But based on the numbers they're putting up, and their Olympic contributions, they should be headed in that direction.

I am not sure if you are serious or sarcastic. What Olympic contributions are you talking about? Lebronze? That would be good for almost any country but the US.

[sa_kid20]

How does Iverson have a better chance than Kobe?

[Shaolin-Style]

i guess iverson gets more weight cause of his forgettable mvp.

[ChuckD]

ummmmmm, LeBron?

WAAAAAAAY to early to even call him a lock. Look at Wade. He's 26 and injuries have trashed a once promising career. It can happen to anyone.

Projecting, you can say LeBron will probably make it, but no one is a lock after 5 years. Jordan wasn't even a lock after 5 years. He was known as a hog who didn't make his team mates better and a playoff choker at that point.

[ChuckD]

Looks like it doesn't take into account anything but NBA stats:

And since it isn't the NBA Hall of Fame, but the Basketball HOF with a large international component, Manu is a mortal lock with his combined European, International compe ion, and NBA resumes. Euroleague champion, Olympic gold, WC silver, 3 NBA les.

[Behrooz24]

31. Robert Horry 0.0288

That to me says there's something wrong with their math.
Horry should be a HOF lock. With as many rings as he's won, with his clutchness, winning with as many different teams as he had - come on.

And to have Vince Carter and Chris Webber ahead of him? What the have those two done?

Stay in the kitchen

[bigfan]

I agree with the first six (and thats all).

[dg7md]

Only the top 6 and Kidd will make the HOF from that list. A slight case for Allen if he wins a championship before he retires and plays a big part of that run, and if he didn't get the 3 point shot achievement he wouldn't even be mentioned in the possible shot at making the HOF despite his shooting credentials.

[ShoogarBear]

Nah, the first SEVEN (yes, including Dirk), and JKidd are the locks.

Everyone else will be a discussion.

[Medvedenko]

The list is obviously taking career accomplishments as a basis. Lebron will be there unless he suffers a huge injury and s up his career.

[dbreiden83080]

Are there a ton of points awarded for Slam Dunk Compe ions? How is VC ahead of Kidd?

If i had a vote no way in is Carter getting in. What the did he do in his career??? To me he is one step above Allan Houston, a very good offensive player who is a defender and a lousy leader.