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Rasmussen shows the same trend. In fact, worse.
While other polls reflect this trend, keep in mind that Zogby notoriously overrates his momentum swings. When Obama was making gains in places like New Jersey and California, Zogby helped fuel the idea that he was outright winning those states by significant margins.
Rasmussen shows the same trend. In fact, worse.
Last edited by word; 03-20-2008 at 04:16 PM.
Yes an incompetent fool for 4 years followed by 12 years of occupying the white house. Maybe Obama is Jimmy Carter. 4 for 12 isn't really a good tradeoff.
Obama has to disown that bigot and fast.....or its gonna get worse.
The point was that you can't extrapolate anything meaningful from singular points. Politics isn't a science, no matter if you try to shoehorn the word to describe that field of study. Each campaign and candidate is different.
We've got a long way to go before even the next primary.
I admire your faith. After the primaries it's going to get worse, not better. You act like there is still a primary race. There isn't. Obama is the defacto nominee and if the democrats don't certify him as their nominee there will be riots in LA, Chicago...
If Obama wins the primary, enough of Hills base will defect. If the dems, in an insane move, give the nod to Hillary all will break lose and Obama supporters will stay at home. And worse I fear. Dems are in a lose-lose right now. The only thing that could POSSIBLY save them is an Obama/Clinton ticket. Even then...highly unlikely and damage done.
It's over. It's so over I can't recall a time it's been over this soon and I've been voting since 1972.
That's exactly my point. Since we're on a BB site, I'm going to pull some NBA analogies for you. Calling anything over right now is as moronic as declaring that the Lakers were just about to win their 4th championship in 5 years in 2004 before they even played Detroit. Or handing Dallas the championship after they won the first two games of the Finals in 2006. Or calling the Spurs done after a four-game losing streak in 2008.
The real word isn't paper perfect. It's a long ass ride.
If I remember correctly, Dukakis led Bush late into the election cycle (October?) until that tank ad came out. happens. It's a long, long, long way to go.
Yes, but there is a thing called 'probability'. Surely you took elementary Probability and Statistics in college. There's a difference you know. You could also say, using your NBA analogy, that Portland... ..not even that bizarre...Denver... will squeek into the playoffs and without HCA...play out of their minds and win the west...THEN..go on to to beat Boston without HCA and we are all in awe, as we should be IF that were to happen. Possible ? Yup. Likley ? No. YOU are talking possibility. I am talking probability.That's exactly my point. Since we're on a BB site, I'm going to pull some NBA analogies for you. Calling anything over right now is as moronic as declaring that the Lakers were just about to win their 4th championship in 5 years in 2004 before they even played Detroit. Or handing Dallas the championship after they won the first two games of the Finals in 2006. Or calling the Spurs done after a four-game losing streak in 2008
The real word isn't paper perfect. It's a long ass ride.
If I remember correctly, Dukakis led Bush late into the election cycle (October?) until that tank ad came out. happens. It's a long, long, long way to go.
PS As far as the Dukakis 'tank photo' you could also say 'wille horton' did Dukakis in. I suppose people 'zero in' more later in the election cycle but...
you have to admit the democrat primary has been 'unusual' in several ways.
When I say the outcome will look like 1988 does not mean the race itself is like 1988. The dynamics are always different.
Last edited by word; 03-21-2008 at 12:13 AM.
Anybody who has taken even a rudimentary level of statistics (high school? elementary?) would be able to tell you that you can't extrapolate information from such a variant and limited data set. You absolutely are not talking probability. Check your facts.
That's exactly my point! Every election is different. There's always something unusual, and there is only one certainty: there's a lot of time.PS As far as the Dukakis 'tank photo' you could also say 'wille horton' did Dukakis in. I suppose people 'zero in' more later in the election cycle but...
you have to admit the democrat primary has been 'unusual' in several ways.
When I say the outcome will look like 1988 does not mean the race itself is like 1988. The dynamics are always different.
Just a few weeks ago Obama looked like the inevitable candidate. Before that Hilary seemed like the inevitable candidate. In June, every single media outlet was reporting on the death of the McCain campaign and had shifted focus to Romney. In 2004, Howard Dean went from the probable nominee to a crazy looking fool in a matter of hours. Etc.
Listen, in politics, things change in a matter of days. One week is a long time. Six weeks (until the next primary) is a long, long time. Eight months (until the general election) is a long, long, long time.
Latest polls show 1 in 5 democrats will defect if their candidate is not the nominee.
And the hits just keep coming ....
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