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I wouldn't worry about Nies. He hasn't officiated a single playoff game in 2008.
It would SHOCK me to no end to see Nies suddenly get a game and have it be a Game 7.
Here are some thoughts -- I think I can get the list down to about 11 likely candidates at this point. I'll take back my statement about the unlikelihood of Dan Crawford getting Game 7 -- it's a better possibility than I thought -- and note that I do think that Bavetta is likely to be one of the Game 7 officials. Here's the long form of my reasoning (this is truly only for dorks like me who are fascinated by this stuff):
1. It seems clear to me that at least 2, if not all 3, of the Game 7 officials will be what I call "Finals level" officials. I went back and looked at who the officials were in every Game 7 (in any round) since 2001. Of the officials who've called those games (as best as I can tell) only Tom Washington, Bill Spooner, and Greg Willard have been assigned to a Game 7 without already having called Finals games. It's rarer still that such an "inexperienced" official would get a Game 7 of a Conference Semifinal -- Spooner and Willard have Game 7 experience in First Round Game 7's in 2005; Washington worked last year's only Game 7 (UTH @ HOU). That's the only exception I can find and I think it's a safe bet that the officials for Game 7 will all have Finals experience
2. So, who are the officials with Finals experience that are still working at this point? My list is comprised of the following officials:
Bavetta
Mike Callahan
Jim Clark
Dan Crawford
Joey Crawford
Bob Delaney
Joe Derosa
Joe Forte
Ron Garretson
Steve Javie
Ken Mauer
Ed Rush
Bennett Salvatore
Accordingly, I think it's highly likely that we'll see at least 2 of those officials for Game 7.
3. In looking back at past Game 7's in this round (there have been 6 since 2003) and the series in which those games occurred, it seems pretty clear that any official who worked Game 5 or Game 6 is not going to be assigned to Spurs/Hornets again. That would mean no Joey Crawford, Joe Derosa, Joe Forte, Ken Mauer, or Bennett Salvatore. Assuming the above list of 13 is the list of those most likely to call the game, we can whittle the list down to 8, I think:
Bavetta
Callahan
Clark
D. Crawford
Delaney
Garretson
Javie
Rush
4. The league generally has a rule that provides that an official cannot call games in the same city within 14 days of each other. That rule doesn't appear to be hard-and-fast in Game 7 situations, though. In 2006, Javie worked Game 2 of Spurs/Mavs in San Antonio and then worked Game 7 in San Antonio 13 days later. In 2004, Dan Crawford worked Game 2 of Pistons/Nets in Detroit and then worked Game 7 of that series in Detroit about 12 days later. And in 2003, Ed Rush worked Game 2 of Mavericks/Kings in Dallas and then worked Game 7 of that series in Dallas about 10 days later.
Given the lag time, recycling Rush or Callahan for Game 7 would fit the 14 day rule, since Game 7 will be 16 days after Game 1. But eliminating the 14 day rule means that Bavetta, who worked Game 2 (two weeks prior to Game 7) is also a possibility.
5. I had thought it unlikely that an official who did Game 4 would get Game 7 in the same series, but since 2003, that has actually happened 3 times in the 6 Game 7's in the Conference Semifinals (Bavetta in SA/DAL ('06); D. Crawford in PNX/LAC ('06); and Javie in DAL/SAC ('03)). The only other recurrence that has the same frequency is Game 2 officials getting Game 7 of the same series, which has also happened 3 times during that span (Javie in SA/DAL ('06); D. Crawford in DET/NJ ('04); and Rush in DAL/SAC ('03)).
Contrary to my earlier post, I guess Dan Crawford is a good possibility. He won't likely have Game 7 of BOS/CLE (if it happens), though he could get a Game 7 of LAL/UTH.
6. There has only been one 2nd Round Game 7 in the last few years that had a crew comprised of officials who had all worked previous games in the series -- Detroit v. New Jersey in 2004. It would seem unlikely that all 3 officials will be officials who've already done a game in this series. That would seem to suggest that Jim Clark might be a real possibility.
7. If LA/UTH goes 7 games, I'd bet the house that Salvatore has that game, since he's the only crew chief who hasn't had a game yet in that series (meanwhile, Joey's done Game 1 and Game 6 tonight). That's significant because it means that Salvatore is unlikely to do a Game 7 between the Celtics and Cavs; that probably means that one of Rush, Joey Crawford or Javie is likely to be the crew chief for BOS/CLE's potential Game 7, which makes it all the more likely that we'll see Bavetta in Game 7 of SA/NO -- it seems highly unlikely to me that the league would have three Game 7's in this round without Bavetta getting one of them. He could possibly get an LAL/UTH Game 7 (he did Game 3 of that series) but that would mean no Salvatore in LAL/UTH, which wouldn't seem to make much sense.
8. To the extent that the league goes beyond the list of 13 officials with Finals experience, I would think it would be a "younger" official who hasn't yet called a game in this series. That group of "younger" officials would, in my estimation, include:
Sean Corbin
Scott Foster
Monty McCutchen
Tom Washington
Greg Willard
Mark Wunderlich
McCutchen would be out because he called Game 6 and Washington and Wunderlich would each be out because they called Game 2.
9. So, at most, I think the possibilities for the Game 7 crew would include only:
Bavetta
Callahan
Clark
Corbin
D. Crawford
Delaney
Foster
Garretson
Javie
Rush
Willard
I wouldn't worry about Nies. He hasn't officiated a single playoff game in 2008.
It would SHOCK me to no end to see Nies suddenly get a game and have it be a Game 7.
Last edited by FromWayDowntown; 05-16-2008 at 05:12 PM.
Awesome work, FWD
Factoring in the likely candidates, what is your Game 7 dream team? I'd want to say Dan Crawford but the Hornets might actually benefit from less fouls called.
It's risky but maybe Bavetta. Bavetta likes to keep games close and the Spurs have won 14 straight close playoff games. Bavetta, Callahan and Delaney might be decent.
I love your work FWD. I try to dabble, but you are the expert.
I would be fine with a Bavetta, Jim Clark, Callahan lineup.
In a road Game 7, I'd have to go with Javie as at least one of the officials.Awesome work, FWD
Factoring in the likely candidates, what is your Game 7 dream team? I'd want to say Dan Crawford but the Hornets might actually benefit from less fouls called.
It's risky but maybe Bavetta. Bavetta likes to keep games close and the Spurs have won 14 straight close playoff games. Bavetta, Callahan and Delaney might be decent.
I think I'd also go with Mike Callahan, who I still think is the best official in the game, but who is (more than that) one of the officials who seems least influenced by the cir stances surrounding him.
I think I would agree with you about Bavetta, too. Remember that it was Bavetta who blew the whistle on the Manu/Dirk play in 2006 -- obviously, he's not always inclined to be a homer in a huge game and I agree that he's likely to at least be willing to try to keep the game close.
I can see the argument for Delaney, but part of me thinks that of late he's become too much of Bobby Covert, celebrity author, and not as much Bob Delaney, really good NBA official.
So is a Javie, Bavetta, Callahan lineup even possible or would they not mix crew chiefs like that?
Do you think it's possible to have a Javie, Bavetta, Callahan crew?
That's true. KSAT had a piece on him where he came across as extremely emo. I don't think an active NBA ref should be selling books and going on a publicity tour. It's just weird.
yeah with Manu and parker the game would take days.
Really why does parker grab his head, every single time he falls??
For whatever it's worth, here are the crews for all Game 7's since 2001:
2001 ECSF (CHA @ MIL) -- Salvatore, Javie, Don Vaden
2001 ECSF (TOR @ PHIL) -- Bavetta, Rush, D. Crawford
2001 ECF (MIL @ PHIL) -- Javie, Hugh Evans, D. Crawford
2002 WCF (LAL @ SAC) -- D. Crawford, Bernie Fryer, Rush
2003 WCFR (PRT @ DAL) -- J. Crawford, Delaney, Javie
2003 ECFR (ORL @ DET) -- D. Crawford, Fryer, Garretson
2003 WCSF (SAC @ DAL) -- Javie, Fryer, Rush
2004 ECFR (NO @ MIA) -- Salvatore, Garretson, Javie
2004 ECSF (NJ @ DET) -- D. Crawford, Garretson, Rush
2004 WCSF (SAC @ MIN) -- Bavetta, Salvatore, Washington
2005 ECFR (IND @ BOS) -- D. Crawford, Delaney, Willard
2005 WCFR (HOU @ DAL) -- Javie, Garretson, Spooner
2005 ECF (DET @ MIA) -- Bavetta, J. Crawford, Rush
2005 NBA FINALS (DET @ SA) -- Bavetta, J. Crawford, Rush
2006 WCFR (LAL @ PNX) -- Javie, Callahan, Forte
2006 ECSF (CLE @ DET) -- J. Crawford, Callahan, Derosa
2006 WCSF (DAL @ SA) -- Bavetta, Javie, Delaney
2006 WCSF (LAC @ PNX) -- D. Crawford, Garretson, Rush
2007 WCFR (UTH @ HOU) -- Fryer, Callahan, Washington
2008 ECFRT (ATL @ BOS) -- D. Crawford, Mauer, Salvatore
[QUOTE=FromWayDowntown;2504419]In a road Game 7, I'd have to go with Javie as at least one of the officials.
I think I would agree with you about Bavetta, too. Remember that it was Bavetta who blew the whistle on the Manu/Dirk play in 2006 -
I really thought that it was Javie who made that call. Can anyone check? I've hated Javie ever since then because of that call.
I'd say it's at least possible.
I've mentioned it elsewhere, but I think it's worth mentioning again -- it appears from the way that the league's referee assignments are posted, that there are only 6 crew chiefs in this round:
Bavetta
J. Crawford
D. Crawford
Javie
Rush
Salvatore
The Javie, Bavetta, Callahan crew would, therefore, include only 2 crew chiefs, which seems reasonable.
My bad!!
I found the video and you're absolutely right. It was Javie -- you can see him walk towards the table and signal the foul . . . .
edit -- Damnit -- I'm not actually going to post that video!!
Does the fact that Bavetta is reffing tonight's BOS/CLE game impact this? I haven't caught the other officials in that game or the LAL/UTA game.
Tonight Bos/CLE: Forte, Bavetta, DeRosa
Awesome work, FWD
Factoring in the likely candidates, what is your Game 7 dream team? I'd want to say Dan Crawford but the Hornets might actually benefit from less fouls called.
It's risky but maybe Bavetta. Bavetta likes to keep games close and the Spurs have won 14 straight close playoff games. Bavetta, Callahan and Delaney might be decent.
Spurs are on the road, so I'd be leaning twords Javie.
Wasn't Bavetta the ref for game 4 though?
Thats a hardcore experienced crew there.2008 ECFRT (ATL @ BOS) -- D. Crawford, Mauer, Salvatore
That Bavetta is working tonight should have no bearing on whether he'll work on Monday. Given all the time off, I'm sure Bavetta is a good possibility.
And, TPark, that crew makes me think that its highly unlikely that anyone other than a Finals level official will get Game 7 of NO/SA.
be intersting to see who refs on sunday with boston and cavs
Because the hornets keep dropping him on his head.
One question though.
What happened to "Hornets in 6"?
If you're not careful, that pic of the spurs fishing, may comeback
to haunt you..
It also shows that it is very plausible that 2 crew chiefs will be working a game #7.
FWD, I noticed in your list of Game 7 officials from past years that no one official called multiple Game 7s within the same round. Granted, all of those past instance of same-round Game 7s were played on the same day which means my initial observation is practically moot. However, do you think there's a chance that none of the BOS/CLE Game 7 crew will get the Spurs' Game 7?
long time lurker, first time poster.
just checked the nba website and they have listed the Bos/Cavs referees. They are Salvatore, Mauer, and Rush.
Looks like we could get two or maybe all of Bavetta, Javie, and D. Crawford.
Now if we can just show up in the third quarter.
Welcome. That's hopefully good news about Rush. Rush is the one ref who concerned me the most.
Three out of Javie, D. Crawford, Callahan would be the best crew. Bavetta with Javie would also be decent enough.
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