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As others have pointed out, I think the offer to beat is Atlanta simply keeping Trae. Until he demands a trade, that is the default position.
hum, sorry but that's the opposite. Every big star who asked for a trade(or both parts wanted to part ways) recently got their request answered pretty quickly, Kyrie, Durant, Harden, Lillard... And for good reason, when a star says he wants out, time is against you as an FO. The more time passe, the more he loses value, fans start to quit on him, that's a huge distraction in and around your franchise, the media, and no team today wants to hold on too long on a disgrintled star who wouldn't put the effort on and off the field. Look at the mess Nephew caused in SA and he didn"t even asked out publicly... And teams can"t react or answer the same way, not to hurt their brand and credibility among other players...Look at how Harden tried to discredit Morey.
NBA is a players league, now. If Trae asks out this summer, he's gone before next season starts.
Last edited by JPB; 02-17-2024 at 12:48 PM.
As others have pointed out, I think the offer to beat is Atlanta simply keeping Trae. Until he demands a trade, that is the default position.
I get your point, but I think it's also clouded by your own personal opinion's of Trae's value (which is fine, but isn't really all that meaningful in a practical sense - not because you are wrong, but because no one actually involved cares about any of our opinions).
There are a few assumptions you have to make when evaluating this:
1) That the Spurs want Trae Young. If they're going to pursue him, it's because they want him. If they didn't, they wouldn't. There is not going to be a "yeah, I'd take him on an uber cheap deal but I don't really love it" kind of move that an online forum poster would make
2) Trae is a bonafide all-star, and there is a cost that can't simply be ignored, even if you are the only bidder.
3) The Hawks dealing with the Spurs means that almost necessarily, the Hawks are going to want their own '25 back as a starting place. This is the one element of the deal that is kind of non-negotiable as a starting place. If the Spurs value that pick more than they do Trae Young, a deal won't happen.
Looking at recent All-Stars on the move (noting, not all of these are created equal):
- Durant to Suns: 4 unprotected FRPs, one swap, one borderline all-star, and one very good young player. This is the highest end of the market, Trae does not warrant a deal like this. It is, however, worth mentioning that this trade was also precipitated by Durant asking for a trade
- Kyrie to Mavs: another case where the player asked for a trade. Nets got two good role players, one FRP and 2 SRPs. This is on the low end of the market, but Kyrie is a special character.
- Harden to 76ers: another case where player asked for a trade. Nets got a former all-star who it wasn't totally quite clear at the time was completely broken (who also asked for a trade - Simmons), two role players, and two FRPs.
- Vuvevic to Bulls: Magic got a good young prspect and two FRPs
- DJM to Hawks: Spurs got 2 unprotected FRPs, a pick swap, and a highly protected FRP
- Russ to Houston: OKC got an all-star PG back (CP3), 1 unprotected FRP, 2 top-4 protected FRPs, two swaps.
- Gobert to Minny: Utah got: role players, draft rights to Kessler, 4 FRPs, one swap
- Mitc to Cavs: Utah gets a good young player who had not quite shown his full potential (Lauri), a 23-yo guard who had multiple 20+ppg seasons already, 3 FRPs, 2 swaps
- Lillard to Bucks: Perhaps the ultimate case of zero leverage by the trading team, Blazers only get an overpriced youngish C, 1 FRP, two Swaps
To me, Mitc might be the most illustrative trade. At the time he was moved, he was 25, a 3-time all star, but no all-NBA teams. His WS/48 ranged between 0.92-.167, and his BPM had been 4.3 for two consecutive seasons.
At the point Trae will prospectively be traded, he's 25, a 3-time all star, an All-NBA 3rd team under his belt. His WS/48 has ranged between 0.062 (rookie year) and 0.181 (though always > 0.1 since his rookie year) and his BPM has been higher (5.2) than Mitc 's peak but his last few years have not been as good as Mitc 's last two years in Utah (3.3 and 2.7).
Trae and Mitc are similar on paper, I'd rate Mitc as a better prospect than Trae at the time he was traded, but not by much. We don't have a Lauri or Sexton to send to Atlanta (outside of Vassell, who I think we all agree we'd like to keep), so that will have to be made up in draft capital.
I'd say a "fair" trade (keeping in mind the assumptions above) would be something like ATL '25 + ATL '27 + TOR '24 + CHA '24 + Keldon + Branham. I would definitely like to keep TOR '24 if I could... maybe ATL '26 Swap can go there instead. This is a lower price than what CLE paid for Mitc , IMO.
Now, if Trae asks out... that definitely changes things. And I bet there would be a few teams who would scramble some offers together. If you just take TOR '24 out of the deal above, I really like it and I'd do it, personally. Not sure if that is enough. If I am ATL, I am asking for BETTER OF ATL/SA '25.
Last edited by scott; 02-17-2024 at 01:24 PM.
Yes, it's a lot of chatter for an unlikely thing. I can see Lakers pushing for him, but unless they can replace the lost picks in the next few years, making the trade is senseless.
- Lakers will want a Trae Young to play alongside LeBron/Davis to extend the window and partly because they make bad decisions nowadays. Problem: cannot refill Atlanta's coffers in the window where Atlanta would be tanking and not own their picks.
- Houston, Utah have the assets but Jazz have a longer horizon and Ainge is too smart for this. Houston has FVV but has the short-term picks to entice. Don't see it happening.
- No other team will want a high usage guard who doesn't win basketball games. Maybe, like, Chicago to change fortunes, but don't have the short-term picks to entice.
- Spurs, but nothing about this franchise, its history, its many recent pronouncements about their plans and horizon, suggest they would ever do this.
He was also talking to someone’s girlfriend’s cousin at 31 flavors.
Yes, they would hinge on the return of the 2025 pick. The Hawks don't HAVE to trade Young AT ALL. If all they can get are crap packages, it makes FAR more sense to go in with him another year and keep that pick. Trading him for next to nothing is senseless.
Although I don't think in any universe a trade for Young happens, the Spurs could give the Toronto pick or the worst of their own/Atlanta pick in 2025. I would NOT trade Atlanta's own pick back to them if it looks like they are tanking.
The problem with waiting a year is that he has an opt out after the second year. He becomes less valuable with only one year left.
They're not trading him anyway. But even if he opts out, who would want him that has room?
Seems like Trae with Wemby is a must do if we could. Trae can outscore the other teams PG and is a crazy good passer. Also he’d probably get better looks from 3 and be able to up his efficiency there. Draft picks, volume is good but will always be a crap shoot.
I agree. I wouldn't overpay for Trae Young either, since those picks would look good too. There are rumors out there that KAT is getting traded in the offseason.
It may not mean anything because he's just another media guy, but Vecenie on his most recent podcast insisted that if Trae is even made available there would be a bidding war for him.
He does NBA team sources mostly in the scouting realm. But it does line up with a view that Trae wouldn't be cheap to get.
The best case is that they trade him somewhere else for picks only.
Atlanta might just want to build around Murray for a few years too. DJM is an extremely scrappy player who's easy to root for. Him, Johnson and the haul for Young might give them a watchable team for a few years. There's a middle ground between a player asking about and a player not wanting to leave. My guess is that Young primarily wants to secure the DPE this summer. If that's not on the table, he'd probably be fine being dealt to a better situation. I do think objective is misreading the value of the picks the Spurs have, but others are overrating the value of the Hawks' picks to Atlanta. Trading for your own picks is betting on the downside of your team's performance. For better or worse, most clubs do not do that.
The Hawks may not want to tank and would rather take another team's future instead of getting its own back. They could basically get control of the Lakers' pick in 2025 and 2026 in addition to the future years. That could net them better picks than their natural picks. As said before, one of the reasons why "war chests" seem to never be fully used on grab elite players is because teams don't tend to want a bunch of picks from other teams when they could have a single team in a strangle hold. That's both because it's rarely good to have a bunch of picks in one year (like war chests have) and because a team with little access to draft picks will find it hard to have sustained success. The Thunder are trying to move their meh picks early to extend the life of their stash. It's a good strategy and one the Spurs should consider starting this summer. That will help, but they're still going to find themselves with a fair bit less leverage in deals than some posters suggest.
That does not mean they should "use it while they can" on Young. Timeline still matters, and as I've suggested, you can make an argument that Trae is one of the worst targets in that regard. It more means they should be active in using and maintaining it each year rather than passively hoping it turns into the right pieces or chasing every potential deal that gets rumored.
I hate to be redundant, but I still think those opposed to this are not realizing how valuable having 3 of their own picks back would be. Whether on their own volition or not, they'd be likely to enter a re-build relatively soon and even in a mid-build, one significant injury or reasonable lottery luck and one or more could be top 3-5 easily.
Also, how difficult and unlikely it'll be to get someone who checks virtually every box (bigger, better "cultural" fit, etc.) and at the precise moment Wembanyama is "ready".
A few things I haven't mentioned . . .
- Johnson, if not rerouted, would make it easier for them to attempt to salary dump Hunter or sign and trade Bey.
- They'll likely be a "Lakers tax", since most of the league can't stand the fact that they always get stars.
- The Spurs and Hawks have a myriad of connections (Ferry, Fields, Snyder), which often help pave the way for significant trades.
- Young may try to apply pressure to beat others to the coveted role of Wembanyama co-star.
- Wembanyama continues to make comments that indicate he's not interested in waiting for a competent team to surround him.
The cake appears partially baked at this point. Young continually makes hints, the Spurs have (apparently) expressed some degree of interest. There are fans who would like, and other who would dislike, the move. All of the arguments have pretty much been made, all that's left is for it to happen, or not, but I think folks should disabuse themselves of the notion that Trae is coming for some absurdly cheap package like ATL '27 + CHI '25 + CHA '24.
Buckle up.
Media definitely wants it to happen. They need eyes and clicks. Trae wants it to happen. He needs someone to save him from not being able to lead a team to victories. What matters is whether the Spurs team wants it and nothing in their make-up or what they've said or recently done suggests there would be much interest.
The 2025 Hawks pick is only worth getting from Atlanta is if the Spurs are a good team next season themselves. Otherwise, they’ll have a shot at the top pick anyway so what’s the point? If the Spurs plan to or are expected to be bad again next season, are they really just going to add two more top talented players and think that will catapult them into relevancy? At some point, they have to make a play towards a Gobert or Mitc type move to make it to the next level. Folks who think the Spurs just keep everyone they have because it’s the Spurs’ Way need a rude awakening. I thought they learned that it’s not really like that when homegrown players like Lonnie, White, DJ were given away.
First question... is that a serious question? If they more or less duplicate their standings from this year, that's a 50% chance of a top four pick plus a 20% chance a top four pick. You could even wind up with two top picks. If something goes really bad for Atlanta (injuries, etc.), the chances rise.
Second question... Yes? How else are you going to build a young team? This is how every young team develops instead of taking massive swings at expensive veterans. I'm not sure if that's ever worked for a team that isn't ready for it.
the 25 and 26 drafts have supposedly generational talents at the top, so if a team decided to tank it makes sense to do it then. It's only logical for the Hawks to want their draft picks back. There will be a bidding war over Young, but we hold the most valuable assets by far.
btw Young is 11th in steals in the NBA
This doesn’t address the point I was making. I wasn’t saying they’d give up all their picks in the future. I’m saying putting their eggs in the “let’s have our future young players carry us into relevancy” is not a great strategy. I named a few examples where teams were put back into relevancy because they traded for stars. Oklahoma is the lone example they keep bringing up but the number of teams brought up the other way is overwhelming.
Or being realistic. They're a perennial play-in team with Young. Without him, they either stay in that range with better balance or get worse.
Davis and Young would probably them respectable through the majority of the decade and they'll always get another superstar or star to bail them out before long.
I think you're over analyzing and thinking this by trying to idealize it. It's really not that complicated.
That's the crux of a lot of the takes around here. People just have this notion that they'll magically recreate the past if they're just patient and lucking into Wembanyama reinforced that even more for them.
Yes, it'd be nice if Young were bigger or had a pristine reputation, but you don't get to pick your stars and there's a miniscule chance of drafting (especially with how they limit their options) or trading for someone as good and well fitting as him anytime soon.
It wouldn’t be a cheep package, but the Spurs dont need to throw everything at them. Show me what other team is making the mega offer first. Spurs will need to throw Keldon into the deal, and he has value in his own right too.
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