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I think everyone sees us and contemplates resting at least one of their best players from here on out. Except Portland. Drew Eubanks will likely still start.
Just remember teams rest players down the stretch if they are satisfied with their playoff positioning. I don’t think it’s as simple as looking at the difficulty of teams schedules down the stretch. For us Denver, Minny, GS and Dallas may be resting guys.
I think everyone sees us and contemplates resting at least one of their best players from here on out. Except Portland. Drew Eubanks will likely still start.
Who to root for tonight:
PHI (@DET) and MIL (@BRK) because we want PHI and MIL to finish with better records than Boston, pushing that first round pick owed to the Spurs higher.
ATL (vs CLE) and LAC (@CHI) if you want the Raptors to finish 5th or 6th in the East, avoiding the play-in and ensuring their first conveys to the Spurs this year.
CLE (@ATL) and CHI (vs LAC) if you want the Raptors to finish 7th in the East (lower is possible but highly unlikely), giving them a higher draft slot but introducing the possibility that they miss the playoffs and don't convey their first to the Spurs this year.
LAL (@UTA) if you want the Spurs to finish below the Lakers and thus in a better draft slot.
UTA (vs LAL) if you want the Spurs to make the play-in. This also would help the Jazz stay ahead of the Raptors, giving the Spurs a better draft slot on that pick.
Washington and New York both eliminated from play-in contention. We'll see if they just straight up tank now.
its not impossible the Raptors end up with a better pick than the Celtics , lol. Raptors are 2.5 games back so it would take a big drop from the Cs but not impossible. Looking like 23 for the Celtics right now, and 20 for the Raptors. That being said, there are a ton of teams clustered near their records and the Raptors pick could realistically be as high as 18 but also as low as 25. Same goes for the Celtics but with an obvious higher floor.
Either way looks like 2 picks in the low 20s.
Spurs are almost certainly locked into 8-11 at this point. Barring of course, they make the play in and make the playoffs. I don't think they're very likely to catch the Pelicans, but the wizards could drop below although that doesn't seem all that likely either. Still all these teams are so close we'll see.
Its interesting on whether or not the Spurs would be better off from a financial perspective picking at 15 and getting the extra playoff revenue. Probably not, but I don't think its fundamentally a big difference either way.
LOL Brooklyn. They're 3 way tied with ATL and CHA, and may drop into the lottery half of the play in.
Count me on the "Just Win" bandwagon.
More often than not, building confidence through success and getting playoff/play-in experience is more valuable to the team overall than improving your draft position from 15ish to 10ish.
We will be in the lottery. No way we win two road games to get into the playoffs. So, that being said, where we finish isn't necessarily where we draft. That's why it's the lottery. You're still thinking in terms of PICKING 10th or 9th, and team tank is looking at the odds of jumping from 10 or 9 into the top 4. #10 has a 13.9% chance. #9 has a 20.2% chance. #8, where we currently are, has a 26.2% chance. The overwhelming bulk of the talent in any draft is in the top 3-4 picks. Sure, there are outliers, your Giannis, Kawhi, Joker, Draymond, but outliers are what they are, scarce and few and far between. Your best bet is a top 4 pick. Just slipping from 8 to 10 cuts our chances in half. That's why some posters don't care about a meaningless game #83.
Yes i think Wash will still play the same guys : KP and co.... We'll see what NY will do. Ny with a good calendar ( orlando, wash in two of their last 5 ), wash with a toughest schedule ( ATL,CHA, Minny DAL. BOS).
Good that the Toronto will likely convey, 90% if they win against Orlando tonight.
Well, that's yet another reminder of the risks involved in trading everything and your house for a superstar... it may work ocassionally and for the short run, but more often than not it doesn't and it mortgages your entire future for years and years. In their case it was necessary because of the commitments they made when signing KD and Kyrie, much like the Lakers did when they signed LeBron or the Clippers when they signed Kawhi, but going that route leaves you handcuffed and at the mercy of someone who only thinks now and won't pay the full consequences of their choices. I'd rather build bottom up.
Brooklyn's issues are more due to massive amounts of injuries and one player not playing for most of the season.
I understand the Lottery system. I'd rather go for it than tank for a 1/4 chance at a top 4 pick when the better odds are that our pick will be around the 10 spot.
It's better for the overall experience of the guys we have now to play in important games. And I like their odds of winning a road game in #83 better than I like their odds of lucking into a top 5 pick.
Yes, but that's a consequence of how such teams are built, with a couple aging (and troubled) superstars and filling out the rest with whatever leftover pieces you can find, which is mostly veterans way past their prime or flawed players with something to prove.
I wonder where some of you get your inside NBA information. You do realize that the Spurs picked Lonnie with the 18th pick in the 2018 draft? If they had the #10 pick, they still could have drafted Lonnie if they wanted him. (Everyone available at 18 was available at 10.) But they also could have drafted Mikal Bridges or SGA. So tell me, how did that 47-35 record in 17-18 work as far as developing a winning culture? Did it outweigh actually getting a starter in the draft that year? Bridges has started 160 games in the NBA. SGA has started 234. And both have averaged 30 minutes per game, or a little more. Lonnie has started 50 games, and averaged 19 minutes, both heavily boosted by this season. And don't talk to me about Lonnie 2.0, because your argument is about winning culture. and the #10 pick that year absolutley would have contributed more than a first round exit.
The problem is that the Pels could easily decide to tank a single play-in game. If they finish 14 or worse, they keep their first round pick, and only have to give up two future second rounders. After that? Pop himself said that he hated 3-game playoff series, because anything can happen over 3 games, and the best team is less likely to win. The Spurs could have one of those nights when guys are lighting up 3's and, poof!, there goes the lottery.
Not only that, the dropoff in lottery odds between 8 and 11 is tremendous. Between 8 and 12 is just sickening. You, at least, understand that outliers happen - but you don't win the long game by fighting the odds. This was a golden opportunity for the Spurs, and I'm guessing that DJ and Keldon would love to have another really good young player on the court next season. The question really should be, "Which rout gives them the best shot at that??
If N.O. were that worried about conveying the pick, I don't think they would have even tried for the play in, and would be competing with Portland for Biggest Loser. I think they want to show Zion they're doing all they can to win. They were down in the 6-8 area before they put on this burst. Shouldn't they have stayed there if they were worried about the pick?
Hard to go wrong when you can choose any previous draft and assume the Spurs would have picked the best option at #10 in that draft.
Yeah they might have drafted Bridges or SGA. They also might have drafted Jerome Robinson. Kevin Knox might've fallen to them. Maybe they could have tanked harder and gotten Marvin Bagley III, Mo Bamba or Wendell Carter Jr.
Anyway seems like you're leaving out a few other key details about what happened to the Spurs in the summer of 2018 that would have led to the next season's result.
Yeah, that's psychology stuff. It's always hard to guess what's in someone else's head. But look at it this way. People keep talking about how important it is for young guys to see themselves winning games. They could easily say that they've done that, and come about as far as they can - so now get them a decent first round pick for next year. At the very least, a lottery pick is a strong bargaining chip if they're thinking about a trade.
You're probably right, and the Pels looked to be trying as hard as they could to get to the playoffs this season, without Zion. But now? I dunno, maybe. The thought of the Spurs winning two play-in games and losing any shot in the lottery just makes me all crazy-like. They were actually in control of their own destiny, and I just don't think a first round loss is a very good destiny. But I'm starting to sound like a broken record. They're gonna do what they're gonna do.
Sorry, that's BS. I started to head that argument off in advance, but decided to keep it shorter. I didn't pull out Jokic going at #41 or anything like that. I picked the most recent, and most obvious example, specifically Spurs. If you think the Spurs would still have taken Lonnie Walker at #10 that draft, you need to take those glasses off.
Besides, you're avoiding the point. Did that first round exit really contribute a lot to a "winning culture" in SA, like you said? More than the #10 pick that you used in your example?
I never made any argument about who the Spurs should have taken at #10. They didn't have the #10 pick.
It's kind of hard to measure what direct effect any result has on a team who completely overhauls its roster as a result of a disgruntled superstar forcing a trade. Again, do you remember 2018? In hindsight, sure it probably would have been better if the FO had seen the writing on the wall and blown the whole thing up during the 17-18 season, but we're in an entirely different situation in 2022. It's a bad comparison.Besides, you're avoiding the point. Did that first round exit really contribute a lot to a "winning culture" in SA, like you said? More than the #10 pick that you used in your example?
Washington stomped Dallas tonight. I'm surprised. Like, not even close. Maybe a fluke. Not sure if Dallas is trying to slide down to the 4/5, which doesn't make sense. Anyway helps keep air between Spurs and Wizards which is very nice.
Yeah at end of season you will see some teams loose for matchups and some teams will try to win for matchups just depends on team
Clearly. I'm saying I'm not sure why Dallas would cough this up if so. It matches them with Phoenix in the second round.
Washington was on fire tonight. You can't tank an opponent into shooting the way they did. Dallas just got stomped.
Well Curry is out for the remaining regular season so Golden State will drop
Yeah really suprising, i think the end of the season will be strange between teams focusing for the PO or others teams who just want to play ( Indiana not far from beating Boston yesterday)
Toronto with the win, pretty sure they will be in the top 6 so we'll have the pick.
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