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  1. #501
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    The campaign destroyed the head of the Iranian state. In doing so, it shattered the only apparatus capable of issuing a centralised guarantee of safe passage. The more completely the centralised state is dismantled, the harder it becomes to reopen the commercial chokepoint. This is the counterparty paradox no existing geopolitical framework captures.

  2. #502
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    The single most vulnerable position in global markets is any allocation framework that models the Hormuz disruption as a temporary supply shock analogous to prior geopolitical events. The disruption is transitioning from a transient logistics delay into a genuine upstream supply contraction. This is not mean-reverting. It is a structural removal of barrels from the global supply curve that persists until the Strait reopens, bypass capacity is expanded (a multi-year infrastructure project), or demand is destroyed through recession.

  3. #503
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    letting one demented, irritable guy make decisions for the whole country without checks and curbs is hurting the USA

    what is interesting is they may not want to tell it to Trump’s face, but they’re all falling over themselves to leak to the press—it wasn’t their idea, they thought it was terrible, we gave him the warnings, right? And not just the ones from the Pentagon before the war, but now.


    And that is quite interesting, because victory has a thousand fathers, but failure is an orphan, right? They’re trying to put the failure at Trump’s door. And that’s one of the problems with being a personalist leader: things do fall at your door.


    So it’s pretty clear that nobody looked down the proverbial game tree at the next move that Iran would make. And closing the Strait as a war move has got to be, if not number one, very, very high on the list of things Iran would do—it’s its biggest point of leverage. But clearly this was not integrated into the decision-making. And, you know, it’s just the latest incredibly painful and costly and deadly reminder of what it means to purge government and decision-making of all the experts.
    https://newrepublic.com/article/2076...-new-leaks-hit

  4. #504
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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  5. #505
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    Helium is key for microprocessor production, about 1/3 of the world's supply is bottled up in the Persian Gulf right now

    But while drivers across the US will already have seen gas prices shooting up, and consumers may soon notice challenges getting hold of cheap Chinese imports — according to the United Nations, something like 11% of all global trade traverses the narrow strait.


    But there’s another problem ahead: helium supplies could be crimped because of the war.


    The alarm bells were rung by South Korean government officials last week, cautioning that semiconductor production could be disrupted if key materials from the Middle East cannot be sourced, including helium. South Korea’s chip sector, led by Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, produces roughly two-thirds of the world’s memory chips. US-listed MicronMU $399.98 (-4.47%) is another big player. Helium is essential in semiconductor manufacturing, particularly for heat management and high-spec industrial processes.
    https://sherwood.news/tech/shutdown-...le-chipmakers/

  6. #506
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    That doesn’t mean we need to hit the panic button yet, however. “We’re not in a shortage right now,” said Maura Garvey, president of Intelligas Consulting, a Duxbury, Massachusetts-based consultancy in specialized gas markets. That’s in large part because the helium market has been in oversupply for years, thanks to new large sources coming onstream in Russia, Qatar, and South Africa. Yet Garvey has long cautioned her customers: “I know we’re in oversupply, but don’t get comfortable. We’re just one geopolitical event away from shortage.”


    She added, “That’s exactly what’s happened.”


    Annual helium demand is currently around 6 billion cubic feet a year, and while the oversupply has been able to meet that demand comfortably up to now, what’s happening in the Middle East jeopardizes the guarantee of that supply. Not all suppliers seem to be affected equally: Taiwan’s GlobalWafers said this week it held enough helium inventory to sustain operations for multiple years.
    “I don’t think we’re going to see disruptions in some of these facilities for now,” Garvey said, adding that a shortfall could be managed. “It’s just, it’s going to be more costly.” At least one major supplier, she said, had already imposed a surcharge. And once the disruption occurs, resolving it is tricky. “A one-month disruption is probably going to end up with a disruption in the whole logistics chain of anywhere from two months to maybe even three months,” she estimated.

  7. #507
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    Kornbluth is more worried about the consequences for the semiconductor industry. Even if the fighting stopped immediately, restarting LNG production is far from instant. “The process of restarting the LNG plants, my understanding is that it takes around a month,” he said. “It’s not like flipping a switch and you’re back in full production.” His best-case scenario was that a two-month supply shock could “probably disrupt the market for four months before everything went back to normal.” He envisions that in the coming weeks, major helium suppliers will start declaring force majeure with their customers.

  8. #508
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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  9. #509
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  10. #510
    wrong about pizzagate TSA's Avatar
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    surely CENTCOM has plans for demining the Strait of Hormuz, it has been studying contingencies like this since 1983

    right?

    Well, they had a plan....



    https://x.com/mercoglianos/status/2031460764545081729

    This is worse than anything "McHale's Navy" writers could ever dream up.

    Everything you said about the current state of the Navy's mine countermeasures capability is wrong. Not a little wrong. Completely, embarrassingly, dangerously wrong....

    "The four ships we had dedicated to doing this we just decommissioned." The Avengers in Bahrain... Devastator, Dextrous, Gladiator, Sentry. Wooden-hulled ships from the 1980s. Ships that were pushing 40 years old. You know what replaced them? Three Independence-class Littoral Combat Ships... Canberra, Santa Barbara, and Tulsa… all three already deployed to U.S. 5th Fleet, all three operating in the Persian Gulf and Arabian Gulf right now, today, as you wrote this little rant. Not in San Diego. Not in drydock. In theater. Carrying the most advanced mine countermeasures mission package the Navy has ever fielded.

    USS Canberra arrived in Bahrain in May 2025 as the first LCS with a full MCM mission package. USS Santa Barbara is in the Arabian Gulf conducting mine countermeasures operations with unmanned surface vehicles… and, by the way, just made naval history by executing the first-ever at-sea launch of a LUCAS one-way attack drone from a littoral combat ship under Task Force 59. USS Tulsa is right there alongside them. Three ships. In the Gulf. Doing the mission. While you say the Navy "is absolutely not ready for this."

    These are fundamentally different platforms. Autonomous mine-hunting sonar… the AN/AQS-20C… towed by unmanned surface vehicles so sailors stay outside the minefield. Airborne laser mine detection systems on MH-60 helicopters. Unmanned influence sweep systems for acoustic and magnetic minesweeping. The old Avengers sent sailors INTO the minefield on wooden boats. The new systems keep them OUT of the minefield using robots... something you call a "downgrade"

    And while Santa Barbara hunts mines, she's operating under armed overwatch from A-10C Warthogs out of Jordan… loaded with JDAMs, laser-guided APKWS rockets, and enough firepower to shred any fast boat or drone swarm the Islamic Regime throws at them. The Avengers never had anything like that.

    "We lost all of our corporate knowledge." Really? The Navy spent a decade building, testing, qualifying, and deploying an entirely new mine warfare architecture specifically to preserve and advance that knowledge. They trained new crews. They ran operational tests on Cincinnati. They deployed the first operational package on Canberra. The Navy's mine countermeasures technical division ran this transition for years with deliberate overlap between old and new platforms. You lose corporate knowledge when you do nothing. The Navy did the opposite of nothing.

    "Now we're running an experiment and it's gonna cost people their lives." Three combat ships, forward deployed in the most contested waters on earth, running mine countermeasures with unmanned systems, protected by close air support, integrated with Task Force 59's autonomous warfare network. That's the most capable mine warfare force the United States has put in the Persian Gulf since 1991.

    Yelling "amateur hour" at people while getting the basic facts of the Navy's current force posture completely, demonstrably wrong… while three ships are literally in the water doing the job he says nobody can do… that IS amateur hour.


  11. #511
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    hey, thanks for posting something topical, TSA

    you answered my question


  12. #512
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    it is a shame that US armed forces are being commanded to an insane, illegal war of aggression by a demented fool

  13. #513
    right about pizzagate Blake's Avatar
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    Three ing Stooges











    Everything you said about the current state of the Navy's mine countermeasures capability is wrong. Not a little wrong. Completely, embarrassingly, dangerously wrong....

    "The four ships we had dedicated to doing this we just decommissioned." The Avengers in Bahrain... Devastator, Dextrous, Gladiator, Sentry. Wooden-hulled ships from the 1980s. Ships that were pushing 40 years old. You know what replaced them? Three Independence-class Littoral Combat Ships... Canberra, Santa Barbara, and Tulsa… all three already deployed to U.S. 5th Fleet, all three operating in the Persian Gulf and Arabian Gulf right now, today, as you wrote this little rant. Not in San Diego. Not in drydock. In theater. Carrying the most advanced mine countermeasures mission package the Navy has ever fielded.

    USS Canberra arrived in Bahrain in May 2025 as the first LCS with a full MCM mission package. USS Santa Barbara is in the Arabian Gulf conducting mine countermeasures operations with unmanned surface vehicles… and, by the way, just made naval history by executing the first-ever at-sea launch of a LUCAS one-way attack drone from a littoral combat ship under Task Force 59. USS Tulsa is right there alongside them. Three ships. In the Gulf. Doing the mission. While you say the Navy "is absolutely not ready for this."

    These are fundamentally different platforms. Autonomous mine-hunting sonar… the AN/AQS-20C… towed by unmanned surface vehicles so sailors stay outside the minefield. Airborne laser mine detection systems on MH-60 helicopters. Unmanned influence sweep systems for acoustic and magnetic minesweeping. The old Avengers sent sailors INTO the minefield on wooden boats. The new systems keep them OUT of the minefield using robots... something you call a "downgrade"

    And while Santa Barbara hunts mines, she's operating under armed overwatch from A-10C Warthogs out of Jordan… loaded with JDAMs, laser-guided APKWS rockets, and enough firepower to shred any fast boat or drone swarm the Islamic Regime throws at them. The Avengers never had anything like that.

    "We lost all of our corporate knowledge." Really? The Navy spent a decade building, testing, qualifying, and deploying an entirely new mine warfare architecture specifically to preserve and advance that knowledge. They trained new crews. They ran operational tests on Cincinnati. They deployed the first operational package on Canberra. The Navy's mine countermeasures technical division ran this transition for years with deliberate overlap between old and new platforms. You lose corporate knowledge when you do nothing. The Navy did the opposite of nothing.

    "Now we're running an experiment and it's gonna cost people their lives." Three combat ships, forward deployed in the most contested waters on earth, running mine countermeasures with unmanned systems, protected by close air support, integrated with Task Force 59's autonomous warfare network. That's the most capable mine warfare force the United States has put in the Persian Gulf since 1991.

    Yelling "amateur hour" at people while getting the basic facts of the Navy's current force posture completely, demonstrably wrong… while three ships are literally in the water doing the job he says nobody can do… that IS amateur hour.

    Hey remember when you parrots the party line of "OBLITERATED" when it came to Iran's nuclear program? How's that currently working out for you?

    Also, are you for this war? If so why?

  14. #514
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    This whole war is basically this

    These guys thought they had a machine to make their s bigger. It's actually a crushing machine.
    https://bsky.app/profile/bobisjim.bs.../3mgupmtcxac2j

  15. #515
    right about pizzagate Blake's Avatar
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    After more than two decades of controversy, cost overruns, and early retirements, the U.S. Navy’s littoral combat ship is finally doing one of the things it was originally intended to do: hunt mines...
    https://taskandpurpose.com/tech-tact...-mine-hunting/

    Lol "crappy little ship"

  16. #516
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    I see some handwaving about US force posture in TSA's article but nothing about US ships operating in the Persian Gulf

    Is that something that's happening now?

  17. #517
    right about pizzagate Blake's Avatar
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    I see some handwaving about US force posture in TSA's article but nothing about US ships operating in the Persian Gulf

    Is that something that's happening now?
    Lol tsa doesn't know. He copy/ pasted his text wall without comprehending it and ran.

  18. #518
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    Lol tsa doesn't know. He copy/ pasted his text wall without comprehending it and ran.
    I'm grateful TSA posted something on topic and had a comprehensible take, that isn' always the case

  19. #519
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    seems reasonable for Gulf States to reassess the relationship after such a recklessly undertaken US course of action

    For decades, #relations between Washington ⁠and the Gulf states rested on an implicit trade-off: Gulf energy and capital -- including hundreds of billions of dollars spent on U.S. arms, advanced technology and goods and services -- in return for U.S. protection, said Fawaz Gerges of the London School of Economics.


    Gerges said the war had shaken those assumptions. Now, he said, Gulf states would accelerate efforts to diversify their foreign and security partnerships, realising "they cannot really rely on the United States to protect their energy, oil, gas, their people and their sovereignty.”
    https://www.reuters.com/world/middle...ay-2026-03-11/

  20. #520
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    the lack of interagency coordination shows

    it's like everybody just says whatever they think they're supposed to say

    U.S. OFFICIALS REPORT THAT IRAN IS LAYING MINES IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, ACCORDING TO THE NEW YORK TIMES. THIS CONTRADICTS EARLIER REMARKS BY TREASURY SECRETARY BESSENT WHO STATED IRAN HAD NOT MINED THE STRAIT.

  21. #521
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    I saw one article where a source tried to blame Claude for the mistargeting, I presume it's still under investigation



  22. #522
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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  23. #523
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    Trump nuking the Abraham Accords wasn't on my 2026 bingo card

  24. #524
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    flop sweat


  25. #525
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    Treasury manipulating oil futures?





    "Markets do not like ​it when governments intervene on oil prices," said Terry Duffy, Chief Executive Officer of ​CME, during a panel discussion earlier this week. The CME, which is the world's largest derivatives exchange, is among a group of U.S. exchanges that trade energy futures.

    The White House and the ​U.S. Treasury Department did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

    Another CEO of ​a leading exchange, who requested anonymity to discuss the matter candidly, echoed similar sentiments, saying that #an intervention ⁠from the U.S. Treasury risked aggravating the problem, as it could raise the risk of hefty losses for the government if energy prices continue to rise.
    https://www.reuters.com/business/ene...et-2026-03-12/

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