Reply With Quote
I had the same thoughts! I was thinking Klay or Khris Middleton (Holiday just got extended yesterday) we need some sort of vet that can still contribute on the court and be a leader in the lockeroom
Waiting for the '25 draft is probably the right move tbh even with the pressure from the media and fanbase. Would love if the Spurs could somehow get one of those older past their prime stars on a loaded 2 year deal or something though. Give Klay 2/$75mm. Everyone knows he's not nearly the player he was but it's at least a little bit of a bridge without affecting the future at all and he provides invaluable shooting. Jrue Holiday is maybe another.
I had the same thoughts! I was thinking Klay or Khris Middleton (Holiday just got extended yesterday) we need some sort of vet that can still contribute on the court and be a leader in the lockeroom
holiday just signed a 4 year extension yesterday
Well it looks like Jrue just signed an extension 4 year 135 million contract
The 2025 draft might be the most pivotal one for the Spurs in a long time. Sure the 2023 draft was amazing but picking Victor was a no-brainer. There are far more opportunities to go wrong when the Spurs might have 3, 4, or even 5 firsts next summer.
That Toronto pick likely holds more value in 2025 for us or a trade partner and I don’t expect Toronto to go for a full blown tank next season.
I agree, but think the bellwether on of they enter the Tank for Cooper sweepstakes is what they extend Quickley for.
How very unSpurstalk of you.
What concerns me about the "look to the 2025 draft" philosophy is that if you want to really play your cards right for the 2025 draft, you probably want to keep as many picks in play as possible and then utilize the best ones to take some guys and then trade the rest. However, this will mean you aren't getting the best value for the worst of those picks. It's not the end of the world, but it's not really value maximization of your assets either.
I wanted to see if any guys who are undervalued relative to consensus in the draft. For this simple exercise, I just chose some arbitrary numbers. I'm using college BPM as a catch-all stat to keep things simple, and used fairly arbitrary cutoffs. I wanted to look at elite two way college producers, and how often they led to college NBA success. Basically, the hypothesis is that young age and college production lead to NBA success. I'll keep criteria pretty simple:
BPM > 10, defensive BPM > 4 among FR/SO
2023: None; closest to this criteria was Dereck Lively (BPM 9)
2022: Chet Holmgren (FR, BPM 14); Tari Eason (SO, BPM 13.5); Walker Kessler (SO, BPM 13.2); Mark Williams (SO; 12.1)
2021: Evan Mobley (FR, BPM 12.6); Franz Wagner (SO, BPM 10.6)
2020: Onyeka Okongwu (FR, BPM 10.9); Devon Dotson (SO, BPM 10)
2019: Zion Williamson (FR, BPM 18.7); Xavier Tillman (SO, BPM 10.9), Jarrett Culver (SO, BPM 10.5)
2018: Jaren Jackson Jr (FR, BPM 10.6); Wendell Carter Jr (FR, BPM 10.4)
The above is a pretty wide spread of players that I think that heavily skewed toward bigs. Many of these players were high lottery guys like Mobley, Zion, JJJ and it's an obvious conclusion that good players tend to produce, especially when two-way production is combined with large physical dimensions. I consider Walker Kessler to be a quality future starting center and he might be one of the worst of the bigs on this list. Safe to say that bigs meeting this criteria are a pretty safe bet to become at least a decent starter.
In this class, there are 3 guys meeting this criteria:
Donovan Clingan (SO, BPM 14.1)
Reed Sheppard (FR, BPM 10.9)
Kyle Filipowski (SO, BPM 10.1)
Clingan is probably a good bet to become at least a solid starter, which I think is consensus opinion. Sheppard we've discussed at nauseam here to the point where it's not even that interesting to discuss anymore. However Filipowski was a surprise. Initially he was 15-20s pick for me and seemed a little bit like a stiff who was just ok but not really good at anything. Watching him play he was pretty awkward and nothing was that fluid but I wonder if I am giving him too little credit. I actually did not expect him to grade out so high defensively and I now wonder if he can be the big man version of Franz Wagner.
Pelton just released his stat projection / top 100 combo model for the 2024 draft.
https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/sto...best-prospects
Clingan, Shep, Sarr, Edey are the top 4. He has Risacher 5th, though 81st in the stats only model.
Discussion on reddit here. pelton_nba_draft_model_projections
To add my own thoughts - There are role specific reasons that I think Edey will struggle in moments, though I would be perfectly OK with taking Sarr or Clingan early and then Shep with the Toronto pick. I'd be pretty happy to not address the primary creator whole and do it by committee (especially as I think Wemby's passing is good enough for him to operate as a high post hub, all Jokic), rather than swing on the best option for pure on ball PG / shooting SF in the draft when I'm not sure that those go ahead. Number 1 need is always more good basketball players.
Last edited by jesterbobman; 04-12-2024 at 02:26 AM.
For those who don’t have espn+ here’s his top 30.
- Clingan
- Sheppard
- Sarr
- Edey
- Risacher
- Walter
- Dillingham
- Furphy
- Topic
- Castle
- Collier
- McCain
- K. George
- Filipowski
- Salaun
- Sandfort
- Matas
- Tyler smith
- Holland
- Carter
- Dunn
- Carrington
- Kam jones
- Baylor S
- Karaban
- Edwards
- Cody Williams (!!!)
- Kobe Johnson
- Missi
- Ivisic
Celtics have a lot of money going to a few players. White has played so well for them that they might not be able to afford to keep him past next year...
spoiler alert:
they will keep him
It's a "what have u done for me lately" ranking
They're all lost
Yeah they are probably waiting on Horfords deal to expire and make an extension offer to White after the 24-25 season.
Walters at six is nuts. He can't shoot threes and yet gets ranked that high when Pelton literally says Walter's 3-point shooting will be a make-or-break skill.
Full article here: https://archive.is/3cIoO
Thx for the link
I'm genuinely lost myself but haven't been convinced by any mocks I've seen
Not a bad draft for role players but no allstar potentials = I get why PATFO wnats to get out of the bottom 3 to avoid paying stupid money for an average guy (+ save some cap space?)
Juan Nunez up to #23 in the first in last ESPN mock
I say if they don't get a point prospect or small guard prospect in the lotto, trade up and into the first to grab Nunez
Fck that 2025 draft. Wemby needs a winning team as early as next season.
The mighty great Risacher’s latest game:
2 points
1 rebound
1 assist
1/6 FG
0/2 3PT
2 turnovers
22 minutes
but still considered by some here a tier 1 prospect and a “great shooter” when he is sub 20% 3pt in 18 games on 66 attempts. Somehow not making open shots is because of a “rookie wall”.
there doesn’t need to be another player to step up to make this guy fall off his tier, he should already be doing that on his own but folks are stubborn with their “he’s 6’9! And he could shoot months ago!”
Don't forget, he's French too.
This string of bad games catches my eye, it's too hard of a drop off from his former performances and I'd be interested in hearing from our French friends if there's some context to it (injury, team wise, etc).
Clingan at 1? JaKobe Walter at 6? Buzelis at 17? I can put together a better mock than that one in my sleep.
UConn center Donovan Clingan entering NBA draft
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/...ring-nba-draft
Now what ?
There are currently 109 users browsing this thread. (25 members and 84 guests)
Posting Permissions
