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HARRY ENTEN 10:43 PM
The name of the game is congressional district wins in Missouri. If you win a congressional district, you win five delegates. Right now, Cruz and Trump are leading in three each. Two are not yet reporting.
Shillary's leads in OH and NC have dropped from 30+ to under 15. IL is under 5.
Not saying the Bern will win any of those but it's not as disastrous of a night as it was looking initially.
HARRY ENTEN 10:43 PM
The name of the game is congressional district wins in Missouri. If you win a congressional district, you win five delegates. Right now, Cruz and Trump are leading in three each. Two are not yet reporting.
Cruz is a creepy .
NATE SILVER 10:46 PM
As a native Midwesterner, I’m a fan of the Show-Me State, but Missouri is a fairly annoying state to be coming down to the wire. It’s quite slow to count its vote. Furthermore, there can be huge differences in the vote among St. Louis, Kansas City, the suburbs, and the rural parts of the state, making it hard to make extrapolations. Partly as a result of this, the Associated Press prematurely called Missouri for Clinton in the 2008 Democratic primary; it eventually went for Obama after further votes from St. Louis were tallied after midnight.
Hard to believe he's doing so well, tbh. I mean, yeah Trump is ting on him so far, but Rubio seems far more electable
Why is it hard to believe? He's the Jesus candidate.Hard to believe he's doing so well, tbh. I mean, yeah Trump is ting on him so far, but Rubio seems far more electable
He comes off even more fake than Hillary.Hard to believe he's doing so well, tbh. I mean, yeah Trump is ting on him so far, but Rubio seems far more electable
His anti Washington talk is off the wall. No wonder he's hated among his peers.
Missouri is so damn close
What makes this election weird is the Jesus candidate and the racist candidate are different this time.
I'd understand if he didn't have superPACs, but... he's just bought like everybody else except Trump & BernHe comes off even more fake than Hillary.
His anti Washington talk is off the wall. No wonder he's hated among his peers.
Not like last time when you had Santorum calling Obama a nigger
Bernie is done. I thought he would do better in the rust belt.
Hillary v Trump.
sad as but it's gonna be entertaining.
NATE SILVER 10:56 PM
It’s not surprising to see Cruz going out of his way to praise Rubio; picking up those voters will be key to any chance Cruz has at the nomination. And Cruz has some good news on that front; exit polls in Michigan and other states have shown Rubio voters preferring Cruz by 4 to 1 over Trump. The complication is that those exit polls didn’t ask about a three-way race among Cruz, Trump and Kasich. Although Cruz is probably a better match for Rubio voters ideologically, Kasich’s voters have more in common with Rubio’s demographically.
So what happens to Rubio's delegates?
He loses them when he quits. They are free agents now.
DAVID WASSERMAN 11:12 PM
Mathematically, Trump On Pace To Erase Ohio Loss
Guess what? Trump could make up for all 66 delegates he lost in Ohio with huge delegate margins in Illinois and Missouri. In Missouri, Trump is clinging to a lead of just 2,400 votes, but IF things continue as they are, Trump will capture 47 of Missouri’s delegates to just five for Cruz. And in Illinois, where Trump is winning about 40 percent of the vote, he could win all but a handful of congressional districts, giving him perhaps 60 of the state’s 69 delegates. Wow.
NATE SILVER 11:14 PM
The 66 delegates Kasich won in Ohio tonight are a big prize, but Kasich’s continued presence in the race has more ambiguous effects for Republicans hoping to stop Trump.
According to the estimates we developed last week, Cruz would be leading Trump in Missouri by about 4 percentage points in a two-way race. Cruz would also be leading by about 2 percentage points in North Carolina and trailing Trump by about 2 percentage points in Illinois.
DAVID WASSERMAN 11:20 PM
Here’s my gut takeaway from tonight’s primaries: It’s more difficult to see how Trump DOESN’T get to 1,237 delegates from here. He’s beating Cruz in red states, and he’s likely to beat Kasich in future blue states. Most of the delegates at stake from here on out will come from winner-take-all states. Whether #NeverTrump forces realize it or not, they are losing.
Kasich will carry the blue states.
No he's not. He can't win anything outside of Ohio.
I don't agree with this guy either. Trump maybe squeaking out a win in Missouri doesn't mean he's taking red states over Cruz with Rubio gone. Though I'm not sure I see Kasich stopping Trump in New York, and especially not Pennsylvania if he's not on the ballot.
Kasich is probably a better bet than Cruz to try to chip delegates away from Trump in the NE though. Cruz can't really go for 1237, that seems unattainable. He and Kasich have to work together to get the convention to a second vote.
HARRY ENTEN 11:30 PM
Unless Cruz can pull a rabbit out of his hat, Trump’s going to win Missouri, based on the map. Most of Boone County (a Cruz stronghold) has reported, and Trump still leads by about 3,000 votes. We’ll see, though, as this election cycle has been crazy.
will he call him todd cruz or dead cruz?
With Trump's base, calling him Ted Bought By the Jews could work since Cruz is Netanyahu's boy.
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