I think Stevens has a 1 August guarantee date, so he probably goes first. I also think Birch is another certain cut if he isn't combined into a trade. They have some sort of plan, so I doubt they waive Mamu after just signing him, although it's not impossible.
So three SRPs (all in years where they have multiple SRPs and in some years when they will have multiple FRPs) for Bullock and his expiring contract plus an unprotected Mavs swap. That Mavs swap could end up being a big nothingburger, but they can't possibly use all those picks anyway. This is a no risk, all reward move.
its also possible they recoup 1-2 SRPs for bullock at the deadline if he plays well
The Spurs probably have multiple options for reducing their roster in discussion.
I'd guess they have a couple 3 for 1 consolidation trades in conversation, which would also create room for Barlow.
~21M in outgoing of Graham, Birch, and Stevens plus SRPs, either sending or receiving, depending on who is coming back in the deal.
Alternately, addressing roster spots by continuing to rent cap space. Or, just waiving Stevens and Birch. Or, finding a team to take Birch, Bullock, or Osman, so long as the compensation piece is fair. The Spurs can be patient.
A classical trade would have been Spurs getting 1 or 2 SRP to take Bullock contract which means Spurs paid 4 or 5 SRPs to get that swap.
Who cares about a classical trade? Yes, it's a risk they get nothing, but they essentially put down 3 $1 bills, and are rolling the dice on $1000, and it's not all or nothing. They may win $100 or $10.
The stat heads on the board crunched the numbers, and the mean return is a jump of 5 draft places. Dallas swapped 2 positions to offload Bertans on draft night, about the same $$ as Bullock, so if we just hit the mean, we go an additional 3 slots for 3 SRPs. I like our chances of being the better team in 2030. I like them a lot.
Nice, love it. A swing for the fences type of move with very little downside. None of those second rounders appear to be owned by teams who are tanking, so unlikely to amount to anything. Getting a completely unprotected first round swap from a team built around Kyrie and soon-to-be-disgruntled Luka sounds great.
Consolidating second rounders (which would become worthless if not consolidated at some point) is an extra layer of win.
Reggie Bullock isn't very good or anything but his contract is fine and he can easily eat minutes at a satisfactory level -- and will probably be able to be turned into more second round picks at the deadline if the Spurs are able to give him enough minutes.
Bullock and Osman are the type of high character vets that are good to have around a young player like Wemby. You want to make sure Wemby has capable wings around him and Bullock and Osman are capable, if it comes to them playing.
The 5 draft spot jump is a good way of looking at it, but also (credit all to Ariel for this) we've been able to value an unprotected Pick Swap as roughly equivalent of the #19 pick (not in terms of EV, but in terms of pick valuation - if each pick has a number of "points" it is worth - then an unprotected pick swap has a point value equal to the #19 pick per Ariel's analysis using the pick valuation model found here: https://thedatajocks.com/nba-draft-pick-values/)
So... one way of looking at this is the Spurs traded 3 SRPs for Bullock and the value equivalent of the #19 pick in the draft (not accounting for the time value of picks). I'd say that's a pretty good deal.
Got a lot a nada.
"Swing for the fences" doesn't exactly come to mind.
Mark Cuban may not mold a le contender every year but he's vain and he hates to be irrelevant, he hates to be really bad -- he'd rather just hang around the edges and smile for the cameras. Not exactly the type of owner you want to have draft pick swap with.
But nothing too bad in all of this, either. You're right, second round picks are pretty "worthless" in certain scenarios.
Does Bullock have any value as an expiring contract? If so, that might be the only tangible thing of value in any of this.
Let’s assume in 2030 Spurs are picking 25 and Mavs are picking 21, isn’t moving up four spots at that range roughly worth at least 2 SRPs?
Maybe it's better to simply be lucky when the picks are that close in that range.
The two teams may not even be going after the same players at that point.
Their franchise overall record is barely .500. Although a lottery pick would be nice, if we’re at 25, and they’re at 18, a playoff team, that’s a huge win.
It’s always good to move up 4 spots. To try to spin that it doesn’t matter is ridiculous.
Obviously there are no guarantees and this is a gamble (most agree that it's a low-risk/high reward type). That being said, the Mavs have drafted in the top 10 of the draft 3 times in the last 7 years. That makes it worth the gamble in my eyes.
EDIT: Considering the fact that the Mavs did not have first round picks in two of the drafts in the last 7 years, they have only picked outside of the top 10 twice during that span.
I doubt any team whose 1st Rounder had an unprotected pick swap against it would just casually tank for the Spurs' benefit. Be it Cuban or anybody else.
The Spurs just essentially moved down 11 spots (from 33 to 44) and didn't blink an eye. Their #33 this year was within about ten picks of that four pick delta in hypothetical regarding the late 1st round.
Cuban would (will) make it his business to see that the hated Spurs (and their dirty Riverwalk) don't benefit from this pick swap!
Seems more like a regular at-bat for a .750 hitter. They could hit a home run and get the #1 pick. They also could hit a single and move up a few spots. Or anywhere in between. It’s unlikely with a 26-year-old Wemby on the team that they’d be drafting ahead of very many teams, so the swap is unlikely to fizzle.
tank jobs arent always intentional
when the celtics moved up to the #1 overall pick due to a pick swap with the nets, why were the nets so kind to them? they werent. they were just a bad team.
and this doesnt have to involve the mavs being a bottom 5 team or anything like that to be fruitful. if a 26 year old wemby is getting into his prime and the spurs are a playoff team picking in the mid 20's, moving from 24 to 16 or something would also be a big deal and worth the cost of 3 SRPs. the mavs would also be coming off the 2029 offseason where they are currently slated to not have any draft picks at all
Okay, you're right, it's better to have a pick swap than not to have one.
But it would be interesting to see (seven years from now) how (1) the 2nd rounders the Spurs traded away worked out, (2) how the Spurs' 1st round pick in 2030 worked out, and (3) how the Mavs' 1st round pick in 2030 worked out.
By then, hopefully the Spurs will have a couple (or more) of les and this will be seen as the highly abstract debate that it always was.
It’s not that the Mavs will be tanking in 2030 - there’s just a lot of uncertainty which means there’s a lot of upside. There’s the aforementioned scenario where the Spurs are one of the top teams in the league while the Mavs are a low seed playoff team: in that case we’d get to move up from 25-30 to 15-20. That’s a big win. There’s the dream scenario, albeit unlikely, where the Mavs have a rough year with injuries and underperform expectations and wind up being a lottery team. There’s also a world where this pick swap entices another team with its unprotected upside potential and we trade it off in 2026 or 2027 to help land a proven player.
It’s really not hard at all to envision a world where this pick swap is far more valuable than 3 SRPs - especially given we already have a metric ton of SRPs over the next several yearsI love the idea of consolidating to give ourselves a higher upside outcome down the road. Lastly, it’s also not that farfetched to imagine a scenario where we end up recouping an SRP or two mid-season if we end up playing Bullock and he performs moderately well…and in that case it becomes an even clearer no-brainer.
Russ perhaps is suggesting that Cuban will have the Mavs go over the second tax apron this year and another year in the next four to ensure that 2030 pick is at the end of the first round. That would be cutting off his nose to spite his face, but following the line of thinking he just hates the Spurs that much.
in the last decade, tre jones is the only spurs SRP who has cracked the rotation. there isnt a huge track record for SRPs being successful.
there will always be outliers of course
LJ Ellis has alluded to this possibility:
The Spurs could offer as part of a trade for a star player:
2026: The better of the ATL and SAS picks
2028: The better of the BOS and SAS picks
2030: The better of the DAL and SAS picks
This would be more valuable than trading just for the Spurs’ own picks, which would probably always be near or at the end of the first round.
Of course, the elephant (literally) in the room is Jokic.
well when the Spurs are the best team in the west, how is he going to do this?
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