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Whoever we draft is going to be very young and will be a role player for the next 3+ years at least. Spurs need to make moves to acquire other talent tbh. Dejounte is going to be 30 before we know it.
I would take Sochan with our first pick unless Murray were available which he won’t be. Sochan fits a need and could be a lot of fun. A potential glue guy with great versatility. Please! We need size at the 4 and the 3 desperately.
Whoever we draft is going to be very young and will be a role player for the next 3+ years at least. Spurs need to make moves to acquire other talent tbh. Dejounte is going to be 30 before we know it.
That’s the way it works if you don’t get one of the top 3-4 picks. BTW, we’ll probably have collected theChicago pick before DJ turns 30.
Fwiw, latest B/R Mock from yesterday has us taking:
8. Bennedict Mathurin
20. MarJon Beauchamp
23. Walker Kessler.
I don’t think any of them will be Spurs personally. But that’s what they think as of right now.
https://syndication.bleacherreport.c...nship.amp.html
Most mocks don’t match with needs until the lottery is over and actual positioning is known.
So we officialy have Toronto's pick. Good news imo.
I guess now we are rooting for the Bulls to overtake Toronto's #5 spot in the seeding for a slightly better draft pick.
Yup. We should be pulling hard for Chicago tonight against Boston, mainly because we want Boston to finish with a worse record than the other teams currently with 29 or 30 losses (GS, DAL, MIL, PHI). Chicago winning and having a shot to overtake Toronto is gravy.
It's also time for the Spurs to mini-tank and try to lose the last 3 games. NO/NY/WAS are all 35-44, and the Spurs losing out would put them at 34-48, assuring them a draft slot ahead of all three of those teams assuming neither NO nor SA makes the playoffs.
Spurs are getting the 10th or 11th pick.
Not happening sadly. Bulls are turrible. Lost 9 of their last 13 games.
The Knicks and Wizards only have 2 games left, but one of them is against each other. So one of them has to get another loss. If the Spurs win out, they have to drop at least 1 slot - but two slots is more likely, and they could easily drop to 12.
I just ran a quick matrix, and the most likely outcome is either tied for 11 or in a three-way tie for 10.
Incredibly unlikely the Spurs win more than one game. One of the Knicks and wizards has to win one more game so it's highly unlikely we pass both. Spurs sliding past a two way tie for ninth therefore isn't very likely at all.
Spurs remaining odds:
20% @ Wolves
52% vs Warriors
18% @ Dallas
.2 * .52 * .18 gives us a 1.872% Chance to win out. This is probably too low because who knows whats going to happen against Dallas and the Spurs are playing better than 538's model is giving them credit for, but its still a low probability event. The Wolves game with no Murray is going to be exceedingly tough to win because they will be playing hard. The Warriors and Mavs, who knows, much more of toss ups depending on who plays and what NOLA does and what happens against the Wolves.
The Knicks and Wiz play each other next, and that is basically a toss up, but not sure it matters who wins. Both already have 35 wins, and at least one has to end up with 36. I don't believe it very likely the Spurs end up with 36 wins, so slipping to the 11th spot is very unlikely, IMO. Slipping to the 12 would require us to go undefeated, and that is also incredibly unlikely as it also requires NOLA to implode. NOLA finishing below 36 wins is highly unlikely since they play Portland at home tomorrow.
Assuming the above odds are correct, we have a 30% chance of going 0-3 in the final 3 games. That would give us the 9th spot in the lottery. There are also scenarios where we win a game and still finish 9th, so the odds of that are even higher than just the 30%. Its definitely the single most likely scenario in play, but the sum of the other scenarios is likely higher but I'm too lazy to calculate them all.
Kinda funny to watch OKC try and work the system by signing 3 G Leaguers to 10 day "hardship" contracts, only to have one of them-- Jaylen Hoard-- have the best week of his young career, posting two 20 pt games and two 20 rebound games, including one monster game of 24 pts, 21 rebounds, 3 assists, & 3 steals. I imagine Presti was hoping they'd go 0-4 in this stretch, but instead they went 2-2 in games where Hoard got minutes. Good for him-- and now he'll have the attention of scouts all over the league.
In the heart of the season, you're probably right. But with teams having 2 or 3 games left, it's hard to figure who "should" win or lose - so I didn't discount games nearly as heavily based on opponents. GSW will be without Steph, and they rested Klay last game, even though they are supposedly playing all-out for seeding. There are other teams who will be resting top-tier players for the upcoming playoffs. I looked at the number of scenarios that COULD happpen in those last 2-3 games that result in the Spurs dropping one slot to 10th. That seems pretty likely.
One thing is for sure. Either the Knicks or the Wizards WILL lose one of their remaining two games, because they play each other. I think it's pretty likely that the loser of that game also loses their last game, to move up one slot in the lottery (assuming the Spurs don't go 0-3). What do you think?
NO has clinched a play-in berth, but they can't move up to the top half of the play-in. Their home and away record is almost identical. They don't have a lot to play hard for in their last 3 games. If the Spurs play hard, and NO isn't motivated? The Spurs could VERY easily move above them record-wise.
I did work things from the back end, and what I meant to say was "tied for 10th (so a chance of the 11 lottery seed)" or "a three way tie for 9th (so a 2/3 chance of getting the 10 or 11 seed)". I would take an even-odds bet that at least two teams wind up tied at 36-46.
At this point, pretty much every season, there are bad teams playing loose against pretty-good teams trying to rest players for the first round, and we see "upsets". The Spurs have been competing really hard at the end of the season. Put all that together, and it's an odds-on bet that they wind up with the 10th seed or worse when it's all said and done.
and that's a good news taht they play each other one time ( if the spurs don't make the Po).
Imo key matcup for the standings is tonight in Minny, i think Spurs could win vs GS but they can rest some players vs Dallas.
I see a win or two for the spurs but we could go 0-3 if we lose tonight.
Nah, that's really good work. The ony part I'm skeptical about is that teams' expectations should be the same as their regular season records indicate. But you have to go with some assumptions, and there's nothing inherently wrong with yours.
I thought DJ was supposed to be back tonight against Minny. If he's not, that's a thumb on the scale for sure. Still, if they finish 1-2, it's REALLY likely they wind up tied with someone at 36-46, and that's a coin-toss to move down 1 in the draft.
Being without Murray tonight makes 12th seed REALLY unlikely, and even 11 would probably take losing a tiebreaker. But I still think 10 is where they land when it's all overa and done.
My favorite post of the month, hands down. I didn't know about all of that, but I always like to see an overlooked guy make good with an opportunity. And I still haven't been able to rid myself of the ghosts of Harden and Westbrook, where OKC is involved. It's sort of dumb, but we Olympians are just that petty.
Murray is out tonight
The Spurs could still (theoretically at least) get the 8th lottery spot if they go 0-3, the Lakers go 3-0 and the Spurs win a coin flip.
LOL. I said I didn't discount outcomes based on opponents, but you're right that could happen and I totally ruled out the Lakers going 3-0.
Of course the Spurs could win two play-in games and drop to 15 in the draft. Imagine being a coin toss away from picking 8, and then jumping straight to 15. That's a pretty big range of possible outcomes.
Thanks. Is this still the respiratory infection. or is there something else I haven't heard?
Yes still the same infection: upper respiratory illness.
True.
I'm not in favor of hard tanking over a large chunk of the season, but I don't think throwing the next 3 games will take any mental toll on the team now that they've already clinched a play-in berth. Especially with a ready-made excuse for Murray to sit the last 3 games.
The sign to look for is if Poeltl sits imo. He's probably the player with the biggest dropoff from him to those who would get his minutes.
Getting 8th pick while making play in would be a great outcome.
I'm going to buck the trend and say the Spurs win two of these three games and ends up with the 10th pick.
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