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Siakam had 37 points, 11 rebounds, 12 assists. Imagine if he'd been playing.
Welp. Sixers choke on a fat one and lose to the Raptors without Siakim playing. So much for that pick dropping.
Siakam had 37 points, 11 rebounds, 12 assists. Imagine if he'd been playing.
Dammit brain fart. I meant VanVleet.
These is the summary of the current pick situation:
Basically:
The first pick could be as high as 9, with Washington and New York as primary compe ors. It looks like it should be at 9.
The second pick (Toronto) could be as high 19, with Utah and Denver as primary compe ors. A tie with Utah and/or Denver seems likely, so the pick would fall between 20 and 22 (table is wrong in that reads 20-21 when it should be 20-22)
The third pick (Boston) could be as high as 23, with Philadelphia, Dallas, Milwaukee and Golden State as primary compe ors. A tie with Philly seems likely, so the pick would fall between 23 and 24.
We can no longer get the 8th pick. We have 3 less losses than LA, with two games left.
^ i see.
So basically, it looks like Raptors are locked into #5 in the East, but BOS can still fall to #4 if MEM beats them and/or PHI wins their last games. Go Philly!
After his 16th technical, looks like Doncic will be suspended for Sunday against the Spurs.
Bad news for the Spurs pick potentially
Picks watch update:
Some bad news today, as Houston and Utah seemed to be in great position vs Toronto and Phoenix respectively, and both collapsed late in the game. Utah was just steamrolled by Phoenix in the 4th quarter... Suns looking like a lock to come out of the west, provided nothing weird happens.
The one positive news concerning the Toronto pick is that teams contending with Toronto are in the West, where seeding will come down to the wire, whereas Toronto in the East will have locked its seeding by the last game, and may thus rest players the final game.
Doncic being suspended might not matter much if Pop chooses to rest guys, which would sound like the reasonable way to go, considering Spurs play on Saturday and Sunday, and play in game is on Wednesday.
Dejounte still out too. But yea no Luka is prob an L for the Mavs.
Rockets blow a late 4th Qtr lead to Toronto. Utah blows a late 4th Qtr lead at home to the Suns. This pushes the Toronto pick down from 20 to 22. Big drop if it stays that way.
Raps play their last game against the ty Knicks so prob a victory. Need the Nuggets and Jazz to win their remaining games regardless.
Spurs are most likely to end up in the 9th spot. Like 9 times out of 10 likely. About half of those times, they are tied with Washington, but the other half they have it alone. A tiny fraction of the time there is a 3 way tie for 9th. The other 10 percent of the time is mostly 10th but we can finish 11th.
This is all based on a model that doesn't know whos sitting or playing so its not totally accurate, but should give people a reasonable expectation. We really really really need to lose against GS.
Spurs odds to win
50% vs Warriors
17% at Mavs
8.5% chance of going 2 - 0 and finishing with 36 wins
50 % chance of going 1-1
41.4$ chance of going 0 - 2
0 - 2 gives us the 9th worst record regardless of what NYK or Washington do.
NYK have a 61% chance of getting to 37 wins, so 39% chance they stay at 36.
Washington has a 19% chance of getting to 36 wins, so 81% chance they stay at 35.
Scenarios
Spurs tie for 11th
Knicks 36W
Spurs 36W
Wizards 35W
2.7%
Spurs alone in 10th
Knicks 37W
Spurs 36W
Wizards 35W
4.2%
Spurs tie for 10th
Knicks 37W
Spurs 36W
Wizards 36W
1%
All 3 teams tie for 9th
Knicks 36W
Spurs 36W
Wizards 36W
.6%
Spurs and wizards tie for 9th
Wizards 35W
Spurs 35W
40.5%
Spurs alone in 9th
50.9%
Wizards 36W
Spurs 35W
9.5%
Spurs 34W
41.4%
Look at the standings now, and you can see what I was telling you a couple of days ago:
You don't want to read all the what-ifs, but the Spurs really can't afford to win both of their last 2.
The good news is GSW will be playing hard for position, and if they beat the Spurs it will be a desperate Dallas team they face on the second night of a B2B. But without Doncic, that's still a concern.
Your model didn't include any possibility of the Pels losing to both Memphis and GSW? I can see that happening easily. Sure wouldn't want the Spurs to win 2 at the same time NOP loses 2. That's the nightmare scenario I was talking about. It got a lot better when the Spurs lost to Minny last night, but still...
If the Spurs lose against GS in the next game, then they are locked in 10th and can't move above NO for home court in the play in. That should mean Pop has an excuse to sit everyone and play the G-League team in the last game against Dallas, ensuring the Spurs get the 9th worst record and don't jump above the Wizards.
Spurs resting pretty everybody tonight. It will be pick 9 or 10 ( unless they w vs GS) for the Spurs if they did not make the PO.
With Pop resting pretty much everyone, I can see the water boy getting a few minutes at point guard, maybe Becky suits up as well. Obvious tanking ploy by CIA Pop.
Good. The Spurs have no reason to win either of the next two games and plenty of reasons to lose.
Yeah I somehow missed they were only 2 games above. It'll be a tiny percentage though.
It's about 2% for spurs to catch the pels. They lose our 26% of the time and we win out 8% so definitely a low percentage situation.
If we win tonight and they lose tonight and Luka is out then be worried, though.
I'll read this as an implicit message that Pop & the FO actually do give a F about the pick, just not to the point of burning bridges OKC / Portland style... hope it's enough.
Tanking 2 games won't hurt. Hope they let their ego/pride set aside unless Pop is too greedy to win at least 1 or 2 more just for his record.
I'm still shaking my head at the game where these two uber-tanking teams met and OKC said "we're starting three G Leaguers on 10 day contracts, and playing them 40 plus minutes." To which Portland responded, "uh, we're starting Drew Eubanks." Jaylen Hoard plays as a small ball center and goes off for 24 points, 21 rebounds, 3 assists, & 3 steals, and OKC wins. (i.e., Portland wins the tank game plan.) Interesting that Hoard has a game somewhat similar to Thaddeus Young, the guy who couldn't get more minutes with the Spurs because they were going to Eubanks. I'm still confused as to whether Pop was low key tanking by playing Eubanks more, or if he genuinely thought Eubanks was the better player...
I've always thought this season was mainly to find out how good young players were. Eubanks playing early didn't surprise me because I thought he actually played better than anyone thought he would last year. I think Pop gave him an opportunity to win the backup slot and he just never delivered. Drew seemed to be playing in his head a lot of the early season. He has the physical tools to be a great rim runner but just doesn't put them together.
He thought Plumlee was better than Bam Adebayo...self explanatory
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