Draft projects to watch besides Wembanyama & Henderson

[JPB]

As far as Black vs Miller goes, Black just seems like he's good at everything. Not sure his ceiling offensively is as high as Miller but I'd lean Black right now between the two after watching quite a bit of both of them this year. He just seems like he impacts the game in more ways as compared to Miller.

I know some people here are high on Black, and I can understand why, but most mock drafts have him as 8 to 15... Seems like he's been rising a bit but not sure he's the kind of guy spurs would get where they'll pick.

[Mr. Body]

As far as Black vs Miller goes, Black just seems like he's good at everything. Not sure his ceiling offensively is as high as Miller but I'd lean Black right now between the two after watching quite a bit of both of them this year. He just seems like he impacts the game in more ways as compared to Miller.

My fear is that Miller is the same archtype as Jabari Smith -- if his scoring doesn't translate, what does he do? But then I've seen some say Smith was a better prospect, but I don't agree. I think Miller is more fluid and much better ball handler. I don't think Miller can play small ball 5, however.

I definitely like Miller, and he seems like a good kid in interviews. I agree with you that he has fewer dimensions than Black, although his scoring can be elite.

Black is still raw, but he consistently makes plays that surprise me. He has great vision and seems to understand angles better than most his age. He doesn't connect those passes sometimes, yet, and he's not a great scorer. But he just shows a lot of promise in a lot of areas. He can be a disruptive defender and makes home run plays -- I've seen him do the Manu Ginobili thing where he steals inbound passes as he's guarding the inbound passer.

[exstatic]

I know some people here are high on Black, and I can understand why, but most mock drafts have him as 8 to 15... Seems like he's been rising a bit but not sure he's the kind of guy spurs would get where they'll pick.

It’s early. Tankathon had him in the teens, and now he’s 10. Dean has him in a group between 3-7. I don’t care a lot about mocks that don’t have a rating system, or actual analysis of player strengths and weaknesses. They just kind of feed of each other’s hype.

[JPB]

I'm definitely one of those.... I do see a 'cliff' after the first two, but it's simply a cliff because the first two are so high... so I've got it as a high plateau basically... I see a drop off from 1 to 2...a drop off after two and flat between 3-7 and a slight drop off after that.. 17 or 18 (depending on where I end up on Jalen Hood-Schifino) is where my next big drop off is..

Tier 1
1. Victor Wembanyama
Tier 2
2. Scoot Henderson
Tier 3
3. Nick Smith Jr
4. Cam Whitmore
5. Brandon Miller
6. Amen Thompson
7. Ausar Thompson
Tier 4
8. Gradey
9. Keyonte George
10. Anthony Black
11. Jarace Walker
12. Gregory Jackson II
13. Kris Murray
Tier 5
14. Jett Howard
15. Brian Sensabaugh
16. Kyle Filipowski
17. Cason Wallace

I have my top 3 so far:

1.Wemby
2. Scoot (maybe trade down for #3 + whatever if you really have a problem with him)
3. Brandon Miller

Then after that a pack including Cam Whitmore, Amen Thompson and Nick Smith. (Jarace Walker is intriguing but not sure he's fitting with those spurs).

Then after that, (hopefully) spurs should have already picked, so that's not my problem anymore...

[JPB]

It’s early. Tankathon had him in the teens, and now he’s 10. Dean has him in a group between 3-7. I don’t care a lot about mocks that don’t have a rating system, or actual analysis of player strengths and weaknesses. They just kind of feed of each other’s hype.

You're not wrong, but I'm still seeing him mostly after #10 in most "educated" mock drafts (#13 for Bleachreport for example) and it's also not just about him, but the guys above that I do'nt see him all pass to sneak into the top 5. There seems to be some kind of ceiling for him in this draft. I could be wrong naturally.

[mo7888]

I have my top 3 so far:

1.Wemby
2. Scoot (maybe trade down for #3 + whatever if you really have a problem with him)
3. Brandon Miller

Then after that a pack including Cam Whitmore, Amen Thompson and Nick Smith. (Jarace Walker is intriguing but not sure he's fitting with those spurs).

Then after that, (hopefully) spurs should have already picked, so that's not my problem anymore...

I try to keep it in tiers for a couple of reasons...1) if we traded back would we be able to get a player in the same tier plus another asset? It kinda helps me evaluate that..and 2) if you're picking let's say 4 in this draft(which would be disappointing) ...you can sort of start considering need or roster building within that Tier... for instance, I've got Smith at #3 but if our need is more of a wing/sf then Whitmore or Miller might make more sense and there's not a huge difference in talent...

Anyway... that's just how I do it ..

[JPB]

I try to keep it in tiers for a couple of reasons...1) if we traded back would we be able to get a player in the same tier plus another asset? It kinda helps me evaluate that..and 2) if you're picking let's say 4 in this draft(which would be disappointing) ...you can sort of start considering need or roster building within that Tier... for instance, I've got Smith at #3 but if our need is more of a wing/sf then Whitmore or Miller might make more sense and there's not a huge difference in talent...

Anyway... that's just how I do it ..

No problem, I liked your classification. That was just a (sarcastic) way for me to say I'm too lazy, and probably uninformed to make a complete list like yours.

[Ariel]

Nah, all the main mock drafts were giving Branhan and Wesley after the lottery and many Wesley after 20.

Lots of mocks from respectable sites had Branham in the late lottery or a few picks after, say in the 12-18 range:
11) https://bleacherreport.com/articles/...nd-latest-buzz
12) https://sports.yahoo.com/final-2022-...130018345.html
14) https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nba/...gctz67vt6wwlrv
https://www.sbnation.com/nba/2022/6/...ck-most-likely
https://ftw.usatoday.com/lists/nba-m...n-jabari-smith
15) https://www.nbcsports.com/washington...-final-edition
16) https://www.si.com/nba/2022/06/20/nb...zz-predictions
18) https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/ins...intel-scouting

Also note that, in all those mocks, Wesley was gone by 25, and in many he was below 20. Point being, both guys were projected to go higher than they went.

[Ariel]

So far (besides the obvious top 2) I'd probably go Miller (mainly because his strengths are most valuable in today's NBA), but I don't see him as a franchise caliber guy or what you'd expect as the bright light at the end of this horrific tunnel. If we don't land a top 2 pick, I'd seriously consider trading back (say with Orlando), maybe you can still get Miller, plus someone else out of the Cam Whitmore / Anthony Black / Gradey bunch. Two of those might provide more value than one not named Wembanyama or Henderson.
Also if we land a late lottery pick, someone I'm intrigued by out of potential is Dariq Whitehead. He's super young (18) and athletic, and shoots close to 40% from 3 and 90% from the line, and he's been held back by injuries and struggled somewhat to start the season. But he's probably one of the higher upside picks below 10, and if he's just having a stroke of bad luck (as opposed to being physically fragile) in a few years he might be what we're looking for.

[exstatic]

So far (besides the obvious top 2) I'd probably go Miller (mainly because his strengths are most valuable in today's NBA), but I don't see him as a franchise caliber guy or what you'd expect as the bright light at the end of this horrific tunnel. If we don't land a top 2 pick, I'd seriously consider trading back (say with Orlando), maybe you can still get Miller, plus someone else out of the Cam Whitmore / Anthony Black / Gradey bunch. Two of those might provide more value than one not named Wembanyama or Henderson.
Also if we land a late lottery pick, someone I'm intrigued by out of potential is Dariq Whitehead. He's super young (18) and athletic, and shoots close to 40% from 3 and 90% from the line, and he's been held back by injuries and struggled somewhat to start the season. But he's probably one of the higher upside picks below 10, and if he's just having a stroke of bad luck (as opposed to being physically fragile) in a few years he might be what we're looking for.

I wouldn’t count on ORL having two picks. CHI currently stands at 32% to jump into the top 4 and keep it this year. That’s more than double our chances at Wemby.

[Mr. Body]

Lots of mocks from respectable sites had Branham in the late lottery or a few picks after, say in the 12-18 range:
11) https://bleacherreport.com/articles/...nd-latest-buzz
12) https://sports.yahoo.com/final-2022-...130018345.html
14) https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nba/...gctz67vt6wwlrv
https://www.sbnation.com/nba/2022/6/...ck-most-likely
https://ftw.usatoday.com/lists/nba-m...n-jabari-smith
15) https://www.nbcsports.com/washington...-final-edition
16) https://www.si.com/nba/2022/06/20/nb...zz-predictions
18) https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/ins...intel-scouting

Also note that, in all those mocks, Wesley was gone by 25, and in many he was below 20. Point being, both guys were projected to go higher than they went.

Thanks for the research.

I honestly didn't pay much attention to either player, not thinking they were of positions of need; I also had Branham as a poor defender. Anyway, for whatever reason they both tumbled. Wesley's not as much of a surprise in retrospect. He's very raw and needs time. Also in retrospect, Branham was a miss for many teams. Johnny Davis is quietly a huge bust right now, but I'd also take Branham over guys like Agbaji or Dalen Terry.

[mo7888]

Thanks for the research.

I honestly didn't pay much attention to either player, not thinking they were of positions of need; I also had Branham as a poor defender. Anyway, for whatever reason they both tumbled. Wesley's not as much of a surprise in retrospect. He's very raw and needs time. Also in retrospect, Branham was a miss for many teams. Johnny Davis is quietly a huge bust right now, but I'd also take Branham over guys like Agbaji or Dalen Terry.

Davis was my biggest miss last year.... I thought he'd be more NBA ready than he was by a long shot...

[Mr. Body]

You're not wrong, but I'm still seeing him mostly after #10 in most "educated" mock drafts (#13 for Bleachreport for example) and it's also not just about him, but the guys above that I do'nt see him all pass to sneak into the top 5. There seems to be some kind of ceiling for him in this draft. I could be wrong naturally.

I don't think we'll see many mocks putting Black into the top 5. Brandon Miller seems to be solidifying as the #3 and I don't see a lot of movement for him.

The Thompson Twins are a bit of a wild card, and I think teams will value Jarace Walker and players like him.

But we're entering a pretty exciting time where players really show some mettle. Black's Arkansas team is playing kind of poorly overall, but I think should make the NCAAT. Kentucky may be out (Cason Wallace), South Carolina is a dead team walking (GG Jackson). I can see players like Gradey rising with good play.

[Mr. Body]

Davis was my biggest miss last year.... I thought he'd be more NBA ready than he was by a long shot...

I really had him on my radar and he's been nothing. Apparently not even good in the G-League.

[mo7888]

I really had him on my radar and he's been nothing. Apparently not even good in the G-League.

Yup... I thought he'd at least be a plus defender and good mid range guy....

[JPB]

Lots of mocks from respectable sites had Branham in the late lottery or a few picks after, say in the 12-18 range:
11) https://bleacherreport.com/articles/...nd-latest-buzz
12) https://sports.yahoo.com/final-2022-...130018345.html
14) https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nba/...gctz67vt6wwlrv
https://www.sbnation.com/nba/2022/6/...ck-most-likely
https://ftw.usatoday.com/lists/nba-m...n-jabari-smith
15) https://www.nbcsports.com/washington...-final-edition
16) https://www.si.com/nba/2022/06/20/nb...zz-predictions
18) https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/ins...intel-scouting

Also note that, in all those mocks, Wesley was gone by 25, and in many he was below 20. Point being, both guys were projected to go higher than they went.

Thanks for those links, and let's not make it more than we should, but for the record, none of this mock drafts has Wesley or Branham as top 10, which was one of the point of the "argument" and most have them after the lottery, although two have them 11 and 14, which I was wrong about then...

The second point was none had Wesley past 20, wich several actually have, and what I was right about then..

Let's say it's 1-1

[Ariel]

Thanks for those links, and let's not make it more than we should, but for the record, none of this mock drafts has Wesley or Branham as top 10, which was one of the point of the "argument" and most have them after the lottery, although two have them 11 and 14, which I was wrong about then...

The second point was none had Wesley past 20, wich several actually have, and what I was right about then..

Let's say it's 1-1

I'm not keeping scores and the post wasn't aimed at calling you (or anyone) out, simply thought the argument warranted clarification, because I followed last draft closely and remember very well how the process went. All in all, I think the Spurs got 2 guys who not only were projected to go higher, but also it's hard to find better value even in hindsight. Maybe Kessler for Branham at 20, but 1) it was difficult to predict Kessler's impact right away, and 2) Branham is younger and still has a lot of room to grow. And I'll take them over many guys who went ahead of them. It's a discussion we can only settle a few years down the road (3 to 5, possibly), but I'm pretty confident so far.

[Ariel]

I really had him on my radar and he's been nothing. Apparently not even good in the G-League.

Yeah, me too. Him struggling with efficiency was predictable, but truth be told I didn't think it'd be THIS bad, and also I was expecting his effort on defense to keep him playable through his early efficiency struggles, which doesn't even seem to be the case. I had him in the late lottery, but so far he doesn't seem even look the part of a 1st rounder. Disappointing to say the least.

[Mr. Body]

Thanks for those links, and let's not make it more than we should, but for the record, none of this mock drafts has Wesley or Branham as top 10, which was one of the point of the "argument" and most have them after the lottery, although two have them 11 and 14, which I was wrong about then...

The second point was none had Wesley past 20, wich several actually have, and what I was right about then..

Let's say it's 1-1

I already posted one link about how Branham was getting some top 10 interest. Final mocks are another thing, but he was in discussion there at one time.

[DPG21920]

How do people feel about Amen Thompson/Ben Simmons comp?

[offset formation]

It’s early. Tankathon had him in the teens, and now he’s 10. Dean has him in a group between 3-7. I don’t care a lot about mocks that don’t have a rating system, or actual analysis of player strengths and weaknesses. They just kind of feed of each other’s hype.

I only use my eyes and watch tape. Feel I have a pretty good jusge of talent. Only consult the scouting services for a second opinion.

This process has done me right in accurately projecting the best nba player available when the Spurs draft (as confirmed with actual play) in all but one of the last 6 or so
drafts. Missed on Haliburton, though Vassell is probably our second best player when healthy so not sure it was way off the mark. Bane has also played way above his draft pick from that class.

[BackHome]

How do people feel about Amen Thompson/Ben Simmons comp?

Drafting Amen is going to get a GM a big pay raise or fired and I really have no clue on where he falls. His shooting pretty much sucks but the kid is SO athletic and does have good court vision and decent handles. It is fair to compare him to Simmons the old Simmons not the new Simmons who is just a head case. If we still had Chip I could see us taking a chance on him because his potential is at a All Star level, but that word has gotten a lot of GM’s fired. So for now if we fall to 3 I think will take Miller.

[Mr. Body]

How do people feel about Amen Thompson/Ben Simmons comp?

OTE isn't a good place to develop. About seventeen percent of possessions in the NBA end in transition, meaning a made basket or otherwise. In OTE it's over thirty percent.

And they don't play great defense otherwise. That the twins' efficiency is so poor is alarming, esp considering they're twenty years old playing against many younger players.

That said, Ben Simmons was always a lazy player who read disinterested in compe ive basketball. When at LSU he clearly and vocally hated it. When they stood a chance to make the Tournament despite a lackluster year, he shat the bed hardcore, for example against Alex Caruso's TAMU team. I wasn't surprised he busted.

From what I understand of the twins, they are compe ive and work hard at least.

[DrSteffo]

After Wemby and Scoot it get's tricky. I have Miller at 3 and Amen at 4 right now. Then for the Spurs maybe George (but is he a PG?), Smith Jr (injury?), Whitmore (sinking?), Walker (rising I think), Ausar (difficult to evaluate but potential), Black (solid but potential?), Still early and 3-10 is open.

[Spursfanfromafar]

OTE isn't a good place to develop. About seventeen percent of possessions in the NBA end in transition, meaning a made basket or otherwise. In OTE it's over thirty percent.

And they don't play great defense otherwise. That the twins' efficiency is so poor is alarming, esp considering they're twenty years old playing against many younger players.

That said, Ben Simmons was always a lazy player who read disinterested in compe ive basketball. When at LSU he clearly and vocally hated it. When they stood a chance to make the Tournament despite a lackluster year, he shat the bed hardcore, for example against Alex Caruso's TAMU team. I wasn't surprised he busted.

From what I understand of the twins, they are compe ive and work hard at least.

What sets the twins apart is their amazing athleticism. Amen especially will get a lot of crowds going Amen after some of his team's possessions. He will get into the NBA as one of the most athletic players already. Plus he is shifty, has a fantastic passing range and makes very quick decisions. The con, of course is that he is a very very poor shooter. Would take a lot of work for him to get into even an average shooter. But there is precedent for that. Lonzo Ball, Ja Morant.. they weren't good shooters to begin with, either, but they worked on it and became much better. Amen promises so much on many abilities that a rebuilding team must take a chance at 3 / 4 in the draft lottery.

Ausar isnt as athletic, but is a better shooter and has good anticipation as well.