Ukraine

[CosmicCowboy]

It doesn't matter what we realize. There's going to be a cowboy that promises to fight back because 'Murica, and everyone and their mother are going to vote for him.

I can't even tell you I agree with that, but I know enough of this country to be pessimistic about it.

Actually if you think the populists are driving the train then I see us more reverting to an isolationist position like post WW1. no way we go to war with a major power to save some former soviet block country. We just got our ass kicked by primitive assholes in Afghanistan.

[ElNono]

Armed conflict between who? NATO isn't going to fight for Ukraine and Putin isn't going to invade a NATO member.

NATO isn't going to fight for Ukraine right now, but Russia isn't stopping at Ukraine either. Russia might not actually invade a NATO member, but countries like Poland are fertile ground for Russian influence.

This is something all the NATO members understand, including the US, plus the terrible local optics of letting Russia and China go ahead with landgrabs while we all watch.

If you don't think that's going to harden the US and NATO and put them in a course to armed conflict or back to Cold War, I have a bridge to sell you in the metaverse.

[SnakeBoy]

The US is a declining power just like Great Britain and France in the 1800s early 1900s and the sooner we realize it the better.

No we're not. We are a retreating power. Just going back to where we belong. We're the one developed nation with a bright future as long as we don't try to solve everyone else's problems for them.

Taiwan isn't Ukraine. China is ed if they try to take it by force.

[CosmicCowboy]

One of the main reasons Russia quit Afghanistan was that Russian this or ing about too many Russian Sons Lost

Putin obviously would win over Ukraine but how much Capital will he lose with the Russian people who will lose thousands of their people

Meh. Ukraine without NATO support will roll over like a 50 dollar .

[CosmicCowboy]

No we're not. We are a retreating power. Just going back to where we belong. We're the one developed nation with a bright future as long as we don't try to solve everyone else's problems for them.

Taiwan isn't Ukraine. China is ed if they try to take it by force.

Meh...China can take Taiwan any time they want to.

[ElNono]

Actually if you think the populists are driving the train then I see us more reverting to an isolationist position like post WW1. no way we go to war with a major power to save some former soviet block country. We just got our ass kicked by primitive assholes in Afghanistan.

Should Russia invade Ukraine, I do see the same guerilla warfare unfolding there as well, with cover NATO/CIA/US support. I don't care how many weapons Ukraine has, they stand no chance on a frontal assault.

tbh, we're done with Trump's apology tour. It's true that there's generally not that great appe e for foreign wars, but especially Republicans feel really comfy in vilifying China and the notion American exceptionalism, which only truly exists if you're #1 in the world.

Democrats will be baited with the 'weak on terror' and 'anti-patriotic' rhetoric, so those are easy votes, tbh...

[ElNono]

No we're not. We are a retreating power. Just going back to where we belong. We're the one developed nation with a bright future as long as we don't try to solve everyone else's problems for them.

Taiwan isn't Ukraine. China is ed if they try to take it by force.

Who's going to stop them? With what?

[CosmicCowboy]

You can't really win a war with gee whiz airplanes and missiles. You have to put boots on the ground to win and we aren't stupid enough to get into another land war with China.

[SnakeBoy]

You can't really win a war with gee whiz airplanes and missiles. You have to put boots on the ground to win and we aren't stupid enough to get into another land war with China.

We don't have to invade China because China invades Taiwan. China is the one who would have to put boots on the ground in Taiwan. It would be harder than D Day to do it successfully.

Who's going to stop them? With what?

China is easily starved. Anyone with a blue water capable Navy can do it.

[hater]

We don't have to invade China because China invades Taiwan. China is the one who would have to put boots on the ground in Taiwan. It would be harder than D Day to do it successfully.



China is easily starved. Anyone with a blue water capable Navy can do it.

If china uses overwhelming power they can take Taiwan in 2 weeks.

Sure they lose 30 to 50k soldiers but they have 3 billion peeps

They did something similar to defend NK and won


Only reason they dont do it now is world condemnation

[ElNono]

You can't really win a war with gee whiz airplanes and missiles. You have to put boots on the ground to win and we aren't stupid enough to get into another land war with China.

We only need to pretend to care about Taiwan's independence and the South China sea as far as economics. That would simply draw China closer to Russia to have access to the world, and...

China is easily starved. Anyone with a blue water capable Navy can do it.

The world is just as easily dependent on China's production, as we've seen in this pandemic. And as also seen in this pandemic, the turnaround to spin up and sever those dependencies can take years on end, while the economy suffers.

Politically, economics sanctions or a blockade against China is much more riskier than Russia. This might sound like a dream for isolationists, but in economic terms, it really isn't.

[hater]

If china uses overwhelming power they can take Taiwan in 2 weeks.

Sure they lose 30 to 50k soldiers but they have 3 billion peeps

They did something similar to defend NK and won


Only reason they dont do it now is world condemnation

On that note

In today's world where many countries waste time dealing with the United States with submission and blind obedience, there’s only our country on this planet that can shake the world by firing a missile with the U.S. mainland in its range,” North Korea’s Foreign Ministry stated on Tuesday.

"There are more than 200 countries in the world, but only a few have hydrogen bombs, intercontinental ballistic missiles, and hypersonic missiles."

North Korea’s Foreign Ministry also called its recent string of missile tests “remarkable achievements,” but stressed that the country was ultimately interested in “war deterrence.”

[ElNono]

In today's world where many countries waste time dealing with the United States with submission and blind obedience, there’s only our country on this planet that can shake the world by firing a missile with the U.S. mainland in its range,” North Korea’s Foreign Ministry stated on Tuesday.

"There are more than 200 countries in the world, but only a few have hydrogen bombs, intercontinental ballistic missiles, and hypersonic missiles."

North Korea’s Foreign Ministry also called its recent string of missile tests “remarkable achievements,” but stressed that the country was ultimately interested in “war deterrence.”

North Korea is a paper tiger, tbh...

[ChumpDumper]

hater loves lil' Kim too.

[RandomGuy]

You are ing dreaming. NATO can't beat Russia in their back yard in a conventional engagement. The whole defense plan against a Major cold war USSR incursion involved tactical nukes and they arent going to there.

Sort of. Short term the Russians could gain on the ground, but they lack the ability to project very far from their borders, and would face NATO's air superiority that would grind any ground offensive to a halt.

Any invasion or occupation of Ukraine would mean they would face having to defend supply lines against an actively hostile population, armed by a geopolitical adversary with deep pockets.

I had expected them to take the leap before now. If they were going to do it, they would have.

This is looking more like this is Buildup 2.0, in an attempt to gain leverage.

I think it is going to backfire on him, and that he has underestimated the speed and effectiveness of the US response. A miscalculation that autocrats surrounded by yes-men tend to make.

Biden is not a weak, obsequious Trump, and has had years to revisit the failings that led to the loss of Crimea for Ukraine. From what I have been able to gather, US diplomacy has been remarkably effective.

One outgrowth of that has been the pre-bunking of Russian causus belli. Russians are masters of misinformation and someone finally getting a move or two ahead of them has been fun to watch.

[RandomGuy]

No we're not. We are a retreating power. Just going back to where we belong. We're the one developed nation with a bright future as long as we don't try to solve everyone else's problems for them.

Taiwan isn't Ukraine. China is ed if they try to take it by force.

"let's just ignore the rise of fascism in Europe or Japan, they are far away and nothing will affect us".

50M people died solving that mistake. smh

The US benefits greatly, as does the world as a whole, from promoting democracy, stability, and security.

[RandomGuy]

The US is a declining power just like Great Britain and France in the 1800s early 1900s and the sooner we realize it the better.

Great Britain and France had colonies that they ended up having to give up as part of that decline.

What colonies are we giving up?

If you can't answer that, you may wish to re-think the analogy.

[CosmicCowboy]

Great Britain and France had colonies that they ended up having to give up as part of that decline.

What colonies are we giving up?

If you can't answer that, you may wish to re-think the analogy.

Mr. Nitpick. They gave up the colonies because they lost the ability to project overwhelming power.

[RandomGuy]

No, Russia will not invade Ukraine
A large-scale military operation does not fit into Moscow’s cost-benefit calculus.

https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2...invade-ukraine

Been combing through quite a bit of analysis, and given that no invasion has happened, I no longer think it will.

Especially not given the pattern of prior Russian uses of force, which as Yilmaz points out, have been decidedly limited and cautious. A full-scale invasion does not fit that pattern.

The earlier analysis I posted pointed this out as well.

Buildup 2.0 will get Putin some of the things he wants, but will have some second order consequences that he will not like.

[Thread]

No, Russia will not invade Ukraine
A large-scale military operation does not fit into Moscow’s cost-benefit calculus.

https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2...invade-ukraine

Been combing through quite a bit of analysis, and given that no invasion has happened, I no longer think it will.

Especially not given the pattern of prior Russian uses of force, which as Yilmaz points out, have been decidedly limited and cautious. A full-scale invasion does not fit that pattern.

The earlier analysis I posted pointed this out as well.

Buildup 2.0 will get Putin some of the things he wants, but will have some second order consequences that he will not like.

Ah, !!!

[RandomGuy]

Mr. Nitpick. They gave up the colonies because they lost the ability to project overwhelming power.

You made an analogy.

I didn't think it really held up.

History may not always repeat itself, but it does occasionally rhyme.

But even by your more refined definition, it fails.

We have not lost the ability to project overwhelming power, have we?

Really not trying to be a here. I just don't buy the "woe is me" as much as some do.

[hater]

called it

[hater]

called it

[ChumpDumper]

called it

So you're calling an invasion now?

[CosmicCowboy]

Putins superyacht was in Germany being repaired. He just pulled it out of Germany before the repairs were finished and returned it to Russia where it couldn't be confiscated if he invades.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...ort/ar-AATFvN3