Race To The # 1 Seed, Spurs Or Thunder?

[SpursFan86]

ing Pistons are so bad. Y'all should've seen how putrid their offense was the last 3-4 minutes of that game.

[exstatic]

ing Pistons are so bad. Y'all should've seen how putrid their offense was the last 3-4 minutes of that game.

41 FTAs for the Thunder tonight

[Horry Hipcheck]

ing Pistons are so bad. Y'all should've seen how putrid their offense was the last 3-4 minutes of that game.

Their entire offensive scheme seemed to involve driving and praying. Maybe their shooters were hot earlier in the game because OKC didn't seem to have any interest in collapsing the paint until they made their little run to win it.

[N0 LyF3 ScRuB]

I'm so torn. I want to face the Thunder because I know we can beat them, but I don't because I know the series will be unbearable due to the ref calls.

My ideal series would be: Grizz, Rockets, OKC, Heat just so we can beat every team analysts keep saying we can't beat. Beyond annoying. Like, I get the Spurs haven't won since 07. But the Grizz? C'mon man it's like they don't even follow the Spurs whatsoever.

[cd021]

No bueno. OKC gets a fairly easy first round match. Bogut is out

The Clips play GSW. OKC plays Memphis.

[cd021]

Record Post-All star Break (as of 4/17/14)

Spurs-24-5 (.827)

Clippers 20-7 (.740)

Thunder 16-10 (.615)

Heat-17-14 (.548)

Pacers-16-14 (.533)

(Italicized are updated to include the games from 4/16)

[Jimcs50]

I predict Spurs will be #1 seed

[cd021]

I think you're underestimating how big of a difference Boris' weight advantage is. Dirk uses his body extremely well even though he takes a lot of jump shots. I don't think there's much Kawhi could even do to slow Dirk down. Despite Kerr's musings, Leonard was not effective on Dirk last Thursday from what I can see.

I see Kawhi as a person who could switch onto Dirk after a screen and do well enough for a possession or so. I don't see him checking Dirk in crunch time unless the Spurs have to play small trying to catch up. I can see your point, but I think the Spurs have too many Dirk defenders to use Leonard there on purpose.

As for the cross-match, I do think Kawhi will have post-up opportunities regardless of whether he checks Dirk. I think Dallas would put a ton of effort to stop Green and Parker, so Leonard and Duncan should get good looks. Unless the Mavs go small with Crowder and Marion as the forwards, I think there are too many holes in Dallas' defense for them to plug up.

Good post. I tend to agree with everything you said. I'm interested to see how our "small" ball units perform (specifically against OKC, Houston and Miami ,if we get that far). Whether the Spurs utilize Leonard at the 4 alongside Duncan or keep Diaw out there with Leonard, Parker and Manu/Green. The latter has been are usual closing squad this season with; the Green version being better defensively and the Manu version being better offensively.

I like that lineup against Miami's Wade-Allen-Battier-James-Bosh lineup. Both lineups had some success last year and should be a bit better with improvement from Diaw and Leonard along with a more aggressive Green and Manu's solid performance.

It would be interesting to see if Pop were to try that lineup (the Diaw at the 4) for a bit when Durant slides up to PF. I'd presume the Thunder would go with Westbrook-Sef-Butler-KD-Ibaka to close games out against the Spurs. Durant is a much tougher cover for Diaw than Lebron given his range but he could cover Butler and could attack him by posting him up on the offensive end (similar to the way he did to Jones against Houston)

Then again, it would seem that Green would have to be on the floor to close games out with Parker, Manu, Leonard and Duncan.

[Chinook]

Good post. I tend to agree with everything you said. I'm interested to see how our "small" ball units perform (specifically against OKC, Houston and Miami ,if we get that far). Whether the Spurs utilize Leonard at the 4 alongside Duncan or keep Diaw out there with Leonard, Parker and Manu/Green. The latter has been are usual closing squad this season with; the Green version being better defensively and the Manu version being better offensively.

I like that lineup against Miami's Wade-Allen-Battier-James-Bosh lineup. Both lineups had some success last year and should be a bit better with improvement from Diaw and Leonard along with a more aggressive Green and Manu's solid performance.

It would be interesting to see if Pop were to try that lineup (the Diaw at the 4) for a bit when Durant slides up to PF. I'd presume the Thunder would go with Westbrook-Sef-Butler-KD-Ibaka to close games out against the Spurs. Durant is a much tougher cover for Diaw than Lebron given his range but he could cover Butler and could attack him by posting him up on the offensive end (similar to the way he did to Jones against Houston)

Then again, it would seem that Green would have to be on the floor to close games out with Parker, Manu, Leonard and Duncan.

I don't think Pop would close with two bigs against Dallas, since the Mavs will almost certainly go small in crunch time. However, I think closing units will be heavily influenced by in-game performances. I think Parker and (sadly) Ginobili are the only locks for the ends of games. Pop considers their ball-handling and experience invaluable. The downside to always playing Manu is that it automatically leaves at least one of Green, Leonard, Diaw and Duncan out. I digress, though.

I think Pop would try using Diaw as a four against OKC's small-ball if Boris is sufficiently aggressive on offense during that game. If he's passive, he shouldn't automatically get Green's spot. If he's in 2.0 mode, he's a very valuable offensive option to close games. However, I still think OKC would go small with Jackson or Fisher next to Westbrook instead of Butler. If that's the case, Green's the obvious choice over Diaw.

[spurraider21]

Even if OKC goes small, as long as Thabo or Fisher are in the game, we can literally hide a big on one of them . It's safe to say that barring foul trouble, Leonard will be on Durant 100% of the time. Assuming OKC is going small, Duncan would be on Ibaka/Perk. If we also have Splitter/Diaw on the floor, they can just camp out along the outside on Thabo/Fish, and then OKC will have issues on the other end. If Ibaka mans up on Duncan, you would have Durant/Thabo/Butler defending Diaw/Splitter. That's a matchup we'd be able to exploit imo

[Robz4000]

Even if OKC goes small, as long as Thabo or Fisher are in the game, we can literally hide a big on one of them . It's safe to say that barring foul trouble, Leonard will be on Durant 100% of the time. Assuming OKC is going small, Duncan would be on Ibaka/Perk. If we also have Splitter/Diaw on the floor, they can just camp out along the outside on Thabo/Fish, and then OKC will have issues on the other end. If Ibaka mans up on Duncan, you would have Durant/Thabo/Butler defending Diaw/Splitter. That's a matchup we'd be able to exploit imo

They've tried that in the past and Splitter was posted up by Derek ing Fisher. They also left Diaw alone on the perimeter before but if Diaw 2.0 shows up it'd be a good gamble.

[spurraider21]

They've tried that in the past and Splitter was posted up by Derek ing Fisher. They also left Diaw alone on the perimeter before but if Diaw 2.0 shows up it'd be a good gamble.

i think you have it backwards . splitter couldn't post up fisher was the narrative.

but imagine if this tiago shows up

[Baam]

Even if OKC goes small, as long as Thabo or Fisher are in the game, we can literally hide a big on one of them . It's safe to say that barring foul trouble, Leonard will be on Durant 100% of the time. Assuming OKC is going small, Duncan would be on Ibaka/Perk. If we also have Splitter/Diaw on the floor, they can just camp out along the outside on Thabo/Fish, and then OKC will have issues on the other end. If Ibaka mans up on Duncan, you would have Durant/Thabo/Butler defending Diaw/Splitter. That's a matchup we'd be able to exploit imo

Fisher scored easily on Beli in the last game, Pop couldn't believe what he was seeing... One of the main problem is that even their bench dominates ours... The other problem is Ibaka, Splitter can't post him to take him off his feet, so Boris is the only hope, he'd have to have the series of his life... You put enough pressure on Ibaka like Clips and Mavs do with Dirk/Blake so that he can't help as much and pray that one of Mills Beli steps up instead of being dominated by Jackson Fisher like they were all year...

[spurraider21]

Fisher scored easily on Beli in the last game, Pop couldn't believe what he was seeing... One of the main problem is that even their bench dominates ours... The other problem is Ibaka, Splitter can't post him to take him off his feet, so Boris is the only hope, he'd have to have the series of his life... You put enough pressure on Ibaka like Clips and Mavs do with Dirk/Blake so that he can't help as much and pray that one of Mills Beli steps up instead of being dominated by Jackson Fisher like they were all year...

he went 1/3, 3/4, 2/3, and 1/1 against us in 4 games this year. i dont think its that big an issue. as for their bench, its basically just reggie jackson that gives us fits... Durant played 39, 39, 38, and 38 minutes in our 4 matchups this year, and Ibaka plays about the same amount (40, 37, 33, 38 minutes in our 4 meetings). Their "bench" just amounted to their starters playing playoff minutes while we stayed with regular season rotation.

[Robz4000]

i think you have it backwards . splitter couldn't post up fisher was the narrative.

but imagine if this tiago shows up

Someone posted up on him in the playoffs either last year or the year before and destroyed him. Thought it was that Fisher but it might've been Wade. While a bit better its still pretty embarrassing.

[cd021]

I don't think Pop would close with two bigs against Dallas, since the Mavs will almost certainly go small in crunch time. However, I think closing units will be heavily influenced by in-game performances. I think Parker and (sadly) Ginobili are the only locks for the ends of games. Pop considers their ball-handling and experience invaluable. The downside to always playing Manu is that it automatically leaves at least one of Green, Leonard, Diaw and Duncan out. I digress, though.

I think Pop would try using Diaw as a four against OKC's small-ball if Boris is sufficiently aggressive on offense during that game. If he's passive, he shouldn't automatically get Green's spot. If he's in 2.0 mode, he's a very valuable offensive option to close games. However, I still think OKC would go small with Jackson or Fisher next to Westbrook instead of Butler. If that's the case, Green's the obvious choice over Diaw.

I really like the idea of Diaw posting Durant if the opportunity presents itself. He can still revert back into 1.0 on occasion, I agree. I know that the Jackson and Westbrook haven't played very much together but Brooks has been trying to pair them together more. The lineup (Westbrook-Jackson-Butler-Durant-Ibaka) would be very difficult to stop if they close games out. Fisher does play alot at 2 guard to lake in games which would be much more favorable with Parker playing off ball against him instead of guarding Jackson.

I can understand why Pop plays Manu over Green more times than not. Green struggles to dribble and can be more easily shut down with an athletic and or long opposing lineups. His aggression shooting the ball post all star break is definitely encouraging (5.7 3pt attempts in just over 25 mpg, 45.4%3pt) and hopefully means that he can keep his defender occupied as opposed to them sagging off and recovering at the last second.

Whether Pop goes with him or not at the expense of Manu still remains to be seen. There are going to be nights were Manu just does have it and Greens defensive is the better option. Its just a matter of Pop comfort level during the course of the game. Parker has to do more to create, when Green is in over Manu, but Diaw can help shoulder the play making responsibility as well.

If Pop were to keep Diaw in Leonard would either cover Durant or even Westbrook with Diaw playing Butler. Diaw is certainly mobile for his size but I'm not sure he could cover Durant for more than a few possessions at a time.

Manu brings more unpredictability and the Spurs offense thrives whenever he is on the floor, but the big 3's defensive numbers have been mediocre when they share the floor this year. If Fisher closes out games i'd prefer Manu to be in on the lineup. If Jackson play alongside Westbrook then Green almost certainly needs to be out there to check one of the two.

[SpursRock20]

Games like tonight (OKC vs. Memphis) is why I'm so glad that the Spurs were able to grab the 1 seed. It's going to be harder for the Thunderefs to rig a game on our home floor if we end up meeting the Thunder in the WCF