Ginofan, where did you get that?
look at my link Kori, something's just happened shown in the models, such that Rita is no longer on smooth arc up thru TX
http://www.wunderground.com/tropica...0518_model.html
Your link doesn't work anymore Boutons.
UKMET is the one the predicted Katrina right on target...
they changed the URL when they fixed the graphic:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical...518_model.html
I knew I should have bought more water.
if this Rita stalls over Central TX, the Olmos dam is gonna get some action.
This is driving me nuts.
When I got home and watched the 18z run of the GFS, I noticed that and told it to Jess. The GFS actually picked up on that few runs back.
Thats the discussion for the SAT NWS office early this morning.THE GFS MODEL HAS FAIRLY GOOD CONSISTENCY WITH THE TPC TRACK
PROJECTION UP TO NEAR THE TIME OF LANDFALL; AFTERWARDS THE
FORECAST TRACK AND MODEL CONSENSUS RUN OUT AHEAD OF THE GFS
PROJECTION AS THE 21/00Z GFS BECOMES AN OUTLIER IN HANGING THE
SYSTEM UP OVER TEXAS. THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS MUDDLED WITH
UNCERTAINTY...WITH TRENDS SUGGESTING A BUILDING RIDGE AND LOWERED
RAIN CHANCES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
Its a very plausible scenario and the GFS picks up on trends a lot sooner than other models for the most part. The GFS picked up on this storm last week (remember the Hey Manny thread?) before it was so much as a blob of thunderstorms.
I'm buying it. The look of that trof is not very good and the high pressure system has done some weird things lately.
Get ready for quite a bit of rain if it happens.
Many of the models - including the GFS - picked up on Katrina and nailed her landfall.
I cut through the HEB parking lot by my kids' daycare....and it was PACKED....people coming out with baskets over-loaded.
That was nothing compared to the lines at Walmart to fill up on some of that $2.57 gas.
We just went this past weekend and filled up our 5 gallon water cooler bottles. Between that and the pantry full of Little Debbie snacks, refried beans and sardines, if anything happens we'll be fine. I may hit the liquor store tomorrow, though.
big change in the latest model run:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical...518_model.html
I know! Bob was gonna stop at Costco and said it was packed! Same with the gas stations.I cut through the HEB parking lot by my kids' daycare....and it was PACKED....people coming out with baskets over-loaded.
That was nothing compared to the lines at Walmart to fill up on some of that $2.57 gas.
We just went this past weekend and filled up our 5 gallon water cooler bottles. Between that and the pantry full of Little Debbie snacks, refried beans and sardines, if anything happens we'll be fine. I may hit the liquor store tomorrow, though.
So, how much rain is speculated here in San Antonio?
My cheap guess would be 2-8 inches over the weekend.
Thats actually a pretty good guess, Vashner. No one really knows, but I would suspect if the storm stalls and heads out our way we could easily surpass 10 inches of rain this weekend.
dam, Advisory #17 has it stalling, too!
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/grap...ml?tswindloop?
... has not coming ashore by next Monday!! stalling off shore.
Things just got a lot more interesting, and worse for central TX.
You're reading that plot incorrectly, Boutons. The NHC or the NWS have not made changes to their forcasts and are still saying Rita will head north upon landfall.
If the storm veers slightly east, and hits more along the east coast, isn't that good for west coast because the storm surge doesn't come along the west part of the hurricane?
what's with giving all the hurricanes that displace mexicans, hispanic names like 'Rita'...
so you're saying their forecast words speak louder than the graphics on both sites that show the hurricane still off shore or over TX by next Monday?
the graphics on NHC are not coherent, the animations show stalling over TX through Monday, but the 5-day track shows as before, arcing up through OK on Monday.
Manny....The NHC has not updated for a while. However, Jeff Masters has made some interesting observations. Several of the models have it drifting back over San Antonio after going inland. Jeff Masters says it may pullup before hitting the coast and pound the coastline for 2 days. Bad situation for south central Texas. Rain of biblical proportions would be possible if this happens.
You are correct Boutons. Something is not right on this. Maybe the reason the NHC hasn't updated is because they don't actually know what is going to happen?
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