Where do you have the link to this info? I can't find it anywhere on Google, and 538 stopped updating the map stuff last year.
I knew they wouldn't draw out Davis, he's the NCGOP's favorite Democrat for some reason. I was thinking they might pick that ultra aggressive version and just proclaim Davis to be the in bent of that deep-blue larger district that sprawls northeast of the RTP NC-02 blue district, since it's already labeled as NC-01.
So if what you're saying is true, the current scorecard is
Democrat +1 Flip (AL)
GOP +3 Flip (NC) [-I don't think Don Davis loses re-election in any case in a general election year]
New York - ????
Seats likely to flip in any case:
OH-13: blue to red
NE-02: red to blue
WA-03: blue to red
OR-05: red to blue
I think with the current map in New York the GOP nets 2 losses, Lawler is a popular in bent but Santos is toast and D'Esposito is somewhat moderate and popular but Biden is likely to win that seat fairly comfortably and probably carry the (D) challenger to a slim victory there.
California to me is one where I could see all the in bents on both sides holding serve in 2024, barring a radical change in events between now and then. The Central Valley is trending right and the Orange County area (R)s are popular in bents who toe the line well.
Nevada's 3 Democrat seats have the potential to flip (unlikely all 3, but we'll see) or not... really depends on how well Trump and the Senate candidate do there statewide IMO, which is a crapshoot. NM-02 might flip back if Harrell is running again; it's a coin flip there in a presidential election year.
Trump will carry Van Orden in WI-03; that's a district that's generally low turnout but turns out well for Trump. MI-07 is a toss up with Slotkin on the Senate ticket. Don't see Jared Golden losing even on the same ticket as Trump; college-educated white secular people are the most likely demographic to split-ticket. I see Schweikert in AZ holding on narrowly one more time, but if Trump wins the general next year then someone like Schweikert, and some of the CA and NY GOP delegation, and likely the House GOP majority itself will most likely be toast in 2026.
Another one to keep an eye on is MT-01. That area of the state has been trending blue while the other district has trended red. If Jon Tester comes close (he won't win, but let's just say he comes withing 5%) I could very well see the (D) challenger upending Zinke.