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I think probably wrong jazz guard, but his backcourt partner might not be a bad comp
I'm very high on Sheppard personally, but even more importantly I'm more curious to see how his career pans out than I am of other prospects because he represents such an extreme case of stats based analysis vs poor physical tools / poor mold to the point that we may be at an inflection point.
Over the years (I'm talking about general public opinion, as I realize that there were many opinions that were different here on Spurstalk):
2009 - Steph curry - generational shooting prospect, godlike statistical profile with almost unprecedented combination of 3 point efficiency and volume, other statistical indicators of goodness (high STL%, high AST% as a jr), "can a shooting guard that small succeed in the NBA"?
2018 - Luka Doncic - generational Euro prospect, godlike statistical profile for his age, best player on the best team in the second best basketball league in the world, "can he still get his shot off against NBA athleticism"?
2021 - Chet Holmgren - elite offensive and defensive impact, top 5 freshman BPM in history, shot 84% on non-dunk rim attempts, 39% on 3s, "he's going to break in half when he goes against Embiid, a 195 pound guy can't be a big in the NBA, 'thin shoulders'"
2021 - Alperen Sengun - elite offensive production in Turkish BSL, a top 5 basketball league in the world at age 18, "sieve on defense, offensive impact won't translate against NBA level defenders"
I'm listing these examples not to say that Sheppard is going to be anywhere close to the above 4, but more to give examples of past concerns of a poor mold overriding obvious statistical goodness.
Sheppard's statistical impact is elite - highly unusual combination of elite STL% and elite 3 point shooting translating to elite impact on winning at such as a young age. To get a feel for how absurd 52% on 144 3's is, consider this - if Sheppard decided to chuck up another 2-3 contested 3s per game at sub-30% efficiency (highly conservative estimate considering his prowess as a shooter), he's still a 43-44% shooter on 220 3s on the season. Synergy has his points per possession ranking in the 100th percentile as a spot up shooter with 31% of his possessions and 93rd percentile as a PNR ball handler with 22% of his possessions. I also saw somewhere that his on/off was something like +30 per 100 possessions (+16 offensive/+13 defense), which is absurd even when you compare it against other talented draft prospects like his teammate Dilly.
I agree with a lot of his detractors though, that his mold is so, so poor. 6'2" shooting guard with a +1 wingspan who can't create his own shot against a set defense is just about the worst mold I can think of, even more than the non-shooting offensive big who can't defend the paint or perimeter.
So it comes down to how much you trust the numbers and the statistical impact. So far, I generally adhere to the rule that the best (not only) predictor of NBA success is being good at basketball, and being good at basketball is reflected by high multifaceted production against similar age or older, more physically developed opponents. For that reason, I'm obviously very high on Sheppard. However at some point, a prospect's statistical impact is not quite going to be good enough and his mold is going to be so poor, that his physical warts really outweigh his statistical production. Sheppard's really interesting because I wonder if he represents something close to the inflection point where the warts do start to outweigh the statistical goodness in the end.
Last edited by SpursBills; 3 Weeks Ago at 08:43 PM.
I think probably wrong jazz guard, but his backcourt partner might not be a bad comp
remember when the spurs fo wasted multiple years draft picks looking for that enrique backup and they all failed... are they doing that again looking for a starter PG or some for wendy?
Sheppard is never going to get close to Stockton to me he is more like Mark Price..
Was thinking a slightly worse hornacek when I wrote that personally
He is neither.
He doesn't have the pg dribbling skills that either Stockton or Price have.
Dude, go back and research Mark Price. Reed is nowhere close.
Jimmer went in the lottery right?
The Stockton thing was a joke.
Sheppard's high end outcome is something like Mark Price. He doesn't have the court vision of Stockton, but Price is possible. In the right defensive setting, his speed can be overcome and become a strong team defender. He develops better handles and shiftiness and learns to become a strong pick and roll player.
But to me he's more like Steve Kerr. Same stature, same physical and athletic profile. Kerr shot .573 from deep in college (albeit his senior year). Neither is/was good at high-end shot creation. Sheppard projects to be much better on defense and better at least with secondary connection. So, he's like a Steve Kerr with more playmaking upside, more rebounds, much better hands and disruptive.
His advanced stats were absurd, but I rarely thought Sheppard was taking over games or was even the best player on the floor. Maybe because his usage was pretty low (18%), but I don't think that changes in the pros.
Such an odd disconnect between the stats and the eye test.
Usage Rate:
Sheppard, Freshman=18
Fredette, Senior=37.8
No Comparison.
Wemby-Spurs play best when they play fast and what triggers fast basketball are rebounds, steals and blocks. I i remember one of the first Wemby highlights of Wemby where Sochan stole the ball, passed to Wemby and the latter Euroed and dunked the ball. That was exciting basketball. If you can give a wing or guard prospect with high rebound/steal/block rate then I'm all for it. I'll trust the numbers. Always did.
That is my only question with Castle he plays good defense but he really doesn’t give you steals or blocks which I would think an elite defender would produce.
That's what early Kawhi gave us and that's was good.
Well written, SpursBills.
Reed has a very good feel for the game that is unlike Bryn Forbes who was toast against PGs or SGs on the defensive end and was very one dimensional on the offensive end. Reed has decent finishing ability and an in between game to go along with elite three point ability.
brain wrong will not change his draft strategy.......... here are his pistons picks as gm........same archetype same results........
2016 NBA 1 18 Henry Ellenson Marquette 83 787 342 206 49 .371 .336 .773 9.5 4.1 2.5 0.6 0.4 .023 -3.7 -0.3 2016 NBA 2 49 Michael Gbinije Syracuse 9 32 4 3 2 .100 .000 1.000 3.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 -0.1 -0.136 -12.1 -0.1 Year Lg Rd Pk Player College G MP PTS TRB AST FG% 3P% FT% MP PTS TRB AST WS WS/48 BPM VORP 2015 NBA 1 8 Stanley Johnson Arizona 449 8879 2806 1404 679 .391 .305 .748 19.8 6.2 3.1 1.5 6.9 .037 -2.7 -1.6 2015 NBA 2 38 Darrun Hilliard Villanova 91 859 295 85 71 .377 .304 .747 9.4 3.2 0.9 0.8 0.3 .016 -4.7 -0.6 Year Lg Rd Pk Player College G MP PTS TRB AST FG% 3P% FT% MP PTS TRB AST WS WS/48 BPM VORP 2014 NBA 2 38 Spencer Dinwiddie Colorado
Love timvp but citing his age as a concern is weird. Dude was a freshman in college.
I am surprised you say that. Because all the tape (including the couple of full games of college basketball) that I saw shows a player with a tremendous feel for the game. Yes, he has physical disadvantages that makes him vulnerable against bigger guards, but he has tremendous off-ball awareness plus instincts that help in some match-ups one-on-one. On offense, I think he has been underutilised by his coach John Calipari because he seems to bring a lot to the table besides outstanding shooting ability.
Check this for e.g. - https://x.com/Sam_Vecenie/status/1791616930115375313
I think, under the tutelage of the right coach, a player who brings so much ability and feel for the game can be maximized. I am afraid that he wont be available at 4 for the Spurs. The effing Rockets got the third pick and their analytics-minded FO will pick him. He is a great fit for them too. They need shooting to complement their strong young wing core in Amen Thompson, Tari Eason and Cam Whitmore (besides experienced wings like Dillon Brooks and Jae'Sean Tate). And Sheppard will be a great back-up to Van Vleet (who has a similar physical profile and also outmatched his scouts' evaluation. He wasn't drafted in 2016 and then turned out to be an all-Star player later) and can eventually replace him too.
If the Spurs get lucky (and dont get their first target Zacharie Risacher).. they should pounce on him for sure. I think he is a better prospect than his colleague Rob Dillingham because of what he brings on the defensive end. And he is better off than Castle, because of the latter's poor shooting. And better than Topic who has too many red flags with his injuries and lack of defense. The Spurs can then try to pick a wing at 8 or even Clingan as a back-up to Wemby.
I still feel that the Spurs have to look into the trades market for a star-upgrade and not this year's draft.
i dont think kawhi had good block or steals in college either.Think they kinda simalar stat wise.Obviously kawhi was more
atheletic and more longer.But i think castle can have the same potential as kawhi.
Sheppard seems like the safest, surest fit next to Wemby that won't be available at 8. Even if he never develops as a lead guard, he can be an elite shooter, connector and occasional disruptor defensively.
I wouldn't mind the pick at 4 if he's there, then the Spurs can go upside at 8...or go crazy and opt for more shooting with Knecht.
I like Reed. I like Dalton Knecht even more.
I could definitely live with those 2
Which means Pop will take Topic and Salaun for the tank. lol
You see a 4X NBA all star, and 4X NBA all-team selection (1 first team) player in Reed?
I’m not saying don’t draft him, just these historical comps seem a little bold to me. That or unimaginative (hey a white guy!)
This is not a knock at all, but probably comp is finished product Forbes+ some playmaking/defense. That’s not a bad starting floor IMO.
He's closer to Price than he is Forbes without a doubt.
No, I'm saying he's a Steve Kerr on offense with more playmaking and Steve Kerr in the Steve Kerr game in the 2003 playoffs on defense.
I just don't see him doing well in the NBA. I think at the NBA level he will be stuck as a very undersized SG who will be a below average defender.
He just doesn't have the skillset to be a primary playmaker and what he does defensively won't translate well against better opponents.
Off course, it's just my opinion and I might be wrong. It would make me damn y to say otherwise. There are reasons why he is viewed as a good/great prospect by a lot of people.
I look at it this way, could any of these top draft picks replace our starters on day 1 ? Risacher ...might get a start but that's pop experimenting again- probably not. Sarr ... maybe but would not replace Wemby. Clingan ... he's probably a reserve until year 2 or three. Its not that they aren't talented - they are, they just still have a ways to go to get to NBA starter level. Now Sheppard won't replace Vassell either , but would definitely be the first or second guy off the bench if Trey was starting - or let them duke it out to see who starts. I'm pretty sure that Sheppard is better than Wesley or Branham at 3 pt. shooting, dribbling, passing, layups or just about anything else. He looks to have skills that those two don't quite possess, even after two years of NBA experience. I'm not saying he'll be an all star or anything, but he would clearly be better than either of those two knuckleheads.
Bench players usually play an important role on a winning team. This draft isn't about getting a prime starter, there just aren't hardly any there. If you need a really good player off the bench this is the draft to get one. Why not get two, to replace our lackluster bench. Next year is the really interesting draft.
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