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LBJ is a lock as much as Grant Hill was in the summer of 2000. I think you have to reserve something like that with a young player until they have a good 10 years in the league because you just never know what might happen.
I'm wondering why Bernard King hasn't been inducted yet. Perhaps T-Mac goes the way of Bernard King and doesn't get in... or waits a long time to get in. T-Mac is probably a decent bet to get into the Hall, but it's no slam dunk. Not even close at this point.
LBJ is a lock as much as Grant Hill was in the summer of 2000. I think you have to reserve something like that with a young player until they have a good 10 years in the league because you just never know what might happen.
Bernard King is a great comparison with McGrady. I don't think McGrady's particularly close right now for a number of reasons and if he stays as fragile as he's been, I'd doubt that he ever reaches that point.
Active Leaders and Records for Hall of Fame Probability
Leaders and Records: Career / Active
Click on the Player for career statistics and accomplishments.
Active players are listed in bold.
Members of the Hall of Fame are marked with an asterisk (*).
Explanation of Hall of Fame probability
Rank Player HoF Prob
1. Shaquille O'Neal 1.0000 [lock]
2. Tim Duncan 1.0000 [lock]
3. Kobe Bryant 1.0000 [lock]
4. Allen Iverson 1.0000 [lock]
5. Kevin Garnett 1.0000 [lock]
6. Dirk Nowitzki 0.9993 [very probable]
7. Steve Nash 0.9991 [lock]
8. Vince Carter 0.9528 [borderline]
9. Paul Pierce 0.9512 [very probable]
10. Ray Allen 0.9316 [borderline]
11. Tracy McGrady 0.8780 [borderline]
12. Jason Kidd 0.8702 [lock]
13. Chris Webber 0.6972 [borderline/less likely]
14. Grant Hill 0.6831 [unlikely]
15. Gilbert Arenas 0.6078 >>> worried aboput his injuries
16. Tony Parker 0.3858 >>> will get in
17. Alonzo Mourning 0.3362 [unlikely]
18. Stephon Marbury 0.2819 >>> horrible
19. Sam Cassell 0.2547 >>> cool player, might get in someday
20. Steve Francis 0.2308 >>> bad
21. Elton Brand 0.1890 >>> worried about injuries
22. Shawn Marion 0.1878 >>> underrated
23. Antoine Walker 0.1640 >>> sucks
24. Baron Davis 0.0920 >>> cool player, still has stuff left
25. Yao Ming 0.0872 >>> will get in
26. Richard Hamilton 0.0632 >>> will get in on future achievements & college
27. Chauncey Billups 0.0514 [borderline/less likely] >>> will get in eventually
28. Manu Ginobili 0.0510 [borderline] >>> will get in on international reasons
29. Antawn Jamison 0.0493 >>> not impressive to me
30. Rasheed Wallace 0.0283 [unlikely]
31. Anfernee Hardaway 0.0260 >>> underrrated
32. Michael Finley 0.0249 >>> solid player
33. Michael Redd 0.0218 >>> solid player
34. Pau Gasol 0.0218 >>> might get in on future achievements
35. Jerry Stackhouse 0.0216 >>> overrated
36. Robert Horry 0.0207 [unlikely] >>> I think he'll get in someday
37. Jermaine O'Neal 0.0178 >>> underrated
38. Mike Bibby 0.0169 >>> underrated
39. Peja Stojakovic 0.0142 >>> no D
40. Shareef Abdur-Rahim 0.0139 >>> overrated
41. Jason Richardson 0.0122 >>> still going strong
42. Andre Miller 0.0114 >>> good player, but eay to forget
43. Joe Johnson 0.0091 >>> still up & coming
44. Caron Butler 0.0083 >>> rookie of year is only major accomplishment
45. Dikembe Mutombo 0.0073 [borderline/less likely]
46. Lamar Odom 0.0070 >>> bad
47. Damon Stoudamire 0.0059 >>> dud
48. Eddie Jones 0.0053 >>> underrated
49. Jason Terry 0.0053 >>> over achiever
50. Richard Jefferson 0.0047 >>> cool player
http://www.basketball-reference.com/...ob_active.html
not listed in top 50"
Ben Wallace [unlikely]
Of course I meant barring any injuries.
everyone talks about Tmacs 1st round failures, but always overlook something even bigger.
Grant Hill has never made it passed the 1st round in 15 NBA seasons (around)
It's because TMAC has more first round losses than anybody. TMAC has 7 first round losses in 11 years. That's really gotta suck.
If the Rockets don't make it out of the first round this year......
That illustrates the great gulf between the truly great and the flashy & overhyped.
Duncan has won 24 playoff series, TMac & Hill none.
Garnett only 6.
Winning a playoff series isn't that big a deal, that means you're a top 8 team.
i will shoot myself, to finish off your sentence.
But i would rather play in the playoffs than not at all.
Robert Horry has never lost a 1st round series in 16 years.
8-time All-Star
5-time All-NBA 1st team, 1-time second team
4-time All-Defense 1st team, 5-time second team
5-time assist leader
3rd all-time in triple doubles
Never lost an international game (I know that's important to you)
That's a lock.
And LBJ isn't a lock. If he never played another game, there would be controversy about him getting in just due to longevity.
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