Shot For the Win

[ElNono]

I feel confident with any of the big 3 taking it...

[murpjf88]

http://www.82games.com/gamewinningshots.htm

FG % in game winning shot for 5 seasons (from 2003/04 till 2008/09):

Tim: 39 %
tony: 37.5 %
manu: 28.5 %

manu with his ability to create things and his FT % is a safe bet with the ball in his hands for the last play.

but strictly for the last shot, i'd go with tim or tony.

and in the same situations (less than 24 s with 2 points difference at best), whereas tony hasn't shot FT, manu is only 4/7. ans while tony has made 4 assists for 0 TO, manu has made three assists for 4 TO. even tim is 6/7 on FT and has made 3 assists for 1 TO.

so Tim and Tony first. if one of the big three is on fire though, especially manu, give him the ball.

This would have been great if the question was over the last five years, who would you have liked to take the last shot. But in 2010, Parker has not made good decisions with the basketball. When the Spurs are trailing by two in the final possession, TP almost always settles for a contested jump shot instead of using his quickness to get to the basket. PF has also limited his quickness and has prevented him from getting enough lift on his jump shot.

Manu, on the otherhand, usually looks to drive first before he tries his pantented step back jump shot. Whern Manu drive, the defense collapses and if the shot isn't their, he can find an open shooter.

TD should only be used as a decoy in these situation unless their is a huge mismatch that Timmy can take advantage of.

Manu should still be the first choice.

[TIMMYD!]

It's weird how last year Mason would have been a real option.

But I want Manu with the ball in his hands and then the rest is all situational.

[whottt]

If it's a spot up shot I'll take a Duncan, Jefferson or Parker, and based on this season I'd go with Jefferson first. If it's a shot in the course of play I'll take Manu or Duncan.

[eric365]

Peter D. Newmann of NBA Statistics and Information Research has tallied some numbers that take into account this season. Here are some of his findings:

* This season, Bryant has made seven of the 12 shots, with a chance to win or tie the game, in the last ten seconds of regulation or overtime.
* Bryant's the only player in the last decade who has made seven such shots in a season.
* Bryant has made 26 of the 89 potential game tying or game-winning field goals he has shot over the last decade. That's 29.2%, which is slightly above League average.
* His game-winners, against the Heat, Bucks, Kings, Celtics, Grizzlies, Heat and Raptors come in a season when no other player has hit more than three such shots. Derrick Rose has the second-most attempts, with eight.
* The best field goal percentage, on potential game-tying or game-winning field goals in the last 10 seconds of the fourth quarter or overtime, belongs to Chris Paul. He has hit three of his four shots. Chris Bosh, Chris Duhon, Tim Duncan, Raymond Felton, Rudy Gay, David Lee, Rashard Lewis and O.J. Mayo are all two of three. This season, the League as a whole makes just 26.7% of its shots in that situation.
* Over the last decade, by field goal percentage the best shooters in this setting have been Carmelo Anthony (13-28, .464), Pau Gasol (9-22, .409), Tony Parker (11-29, .379), Chris Paul (9-24, .375) and Shawn Marion (10-28, .357). Bryant over the same period is 26-89 (.292).
* Bryant has attempted by far the most such shots of anyone over the last decade. His 89 is trailed by Vince Carter's 69, Paul Pierce's 57, Dwyane Wade's 51 and LeBron James' 50.
* Bryant's 26 makes also lead the League, followed by Carter with 20, Ray Allen with 17 and Allen Iverson's 14. Carmelo Anthony, Tim Duncan, Dirk Nowitzki and Paul Pierce have each made 13.

http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/pos...in-crunch-time

TP seems a good option

[RuffnReadyOzStyle]

I don't know about the shot but I want the ball in Manu's hands when we run the play.

Answered perfectly by the first reply.

That happens VERY rarely.

[TJastal]

Roger Mason.

[kace]

* The best field goal percentage, on potential game-tying or game-winning field goals in the last 10 seconds of the fourth quarter or overtime......
* Over the last decade, by field goal percentage the best shooters in this setting have been Carmelo Anthony (13-28, .464), Pau Gasol (9-22, .409), Tony Parker (11-29, .379), Chris Paul (9-24, .375) and Shawn Marion (10-28, .357). Bryant over the same period is 26-89 (.292).

http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/pos...in-crunch-time

TP seems a good option

great find. all the stats in crunch time point TP as a very safe bet.

third of the whole league for the last decade in that espn stat is rather impressive.

[pookenstein]

When we need a 3, for years, Pop usually runs a play for Horry, Bowen, Barry, Finley, Mason, Hill...aka anyone not part of the big 3. If we need a 2, he gives it to one of the big 3.

Just take a look at my sig...

[Express-News]

great find. all the stats in crunch time point TP as a very safe bet.

third of the whole league for the last decade in that espn stat is rather impressive.

LOL after all your rant and facts............ manu 106.............tony 5 ..... don't you think you're just wasting your time lol

[bus driver]

i will live and die by one of the big 3 taking the last shot

[SA210]

Gotta go with Manu. He has the killer instinct, and has a wider variety of moves. He can pull up or step back for the three. He can drive to the basket for a dunk or a layup. He can draw the foul. He can lob the floater. He can even make the crazy pass if he has to.

If you go into Duncan, teams can collapse in the paint and force a very difficult shot, or force him to pass out. He just doesn't have the same real estate or reportoire.

Duncan is our foundation. He's had his clutch moments over the years, but it seems like Manu is more prepared and comfortable taking that last shot. He wants the ball in his hands with the game on the line.

[ajballer4]

Thing is...Pop always runs the play for some random person to take the shot, but Gino always runs the play

[SpurCharger]

Ball In Manu's Hands, and Let Him Shot or create for someone else.....

[kace]

LOL after all your rant and facts............ manu 106.............tony 5 ..... don't you think you're just wasting your time lol

well, if my goal was to stop the manu balls over sucking and the TP underrating in this forum, yes, i would be wasting my time.

still, manu is the third most clutch player of the team, by almost any stat avaible. which doesn't mean he isn't clutch though.

the fact that tony has the third best FG % on the NBA in game winning shots for the last decade in the espn stat is just amazing, like it or not.

[Fermixalot]

Manu creates the shot TP drains it

/thread

[SpursNextRomanEmpire]

Manu, easily

[carina_gino20]

My wife didn't vote and the twins either. I swear RT @PeterBurnsRadio:82% of #Spurs fans want @manuginobili taking the last shot 4 the win.

http://twitter.com/manuginobili/status/10935608567

[senorglory]

[kace]

FG % in game winning shot for 5 seasons (from 2003/04 till 2008/09):

Tim: 39 %
tony: 37.5 %
manu: 28.5 %

...................

* The best field goal percentage, on potential game-tying or game-winning field goals in the last 10 seconds of the fourth quarter or overtime......
* Over the last decade, by field goal percentage the best shooters in this setting have been Carmelo Anthony (13-28, .464), Pau Gasol (9-22, .409), Tony Parker (11-29, .379), Chris Paul (9-24, .375) and Shawn Marion (10-28, .357). Bryant over the same period is 26-89 (.292).

TP seems a good option

against the mavs, 5 minutes or less when the two teams differential is at most two possessions (6 pts) :

- manu : 1/5
- TP : 5/6 (the missed one a long contested one from an inbound pass with the clock running down)

well, nothing new, but i'd really like that manu let the job to tony. Keep doing what is working for several years now.

[Blackjack]

The thing with Tony is, he's got a go-to shot in the clutch. And because of who he's surrounded with and the speed he threatens to turn the corner with, he's just about always going to get a decent shot to execute -- it's a lot like Bibby, where he likes to shoot, but he's better creating his own off the dribble than coming off a screen (though he has improved on the catch-and-shoot).

Manu's a clutch playmaker who's capable of hitting the big shot, but you don't usually see him hitting the end-game shot. He hits the clutch daggers and go-aheads during the game at some of the biggest, pendulum-swinging moments, but if he's not capable of getting to the rim, you just don't generally see Manu hit those shots late. (The last one I can recall was against Minnesota.)

But you want him with the ball more often than not, and you definitely want him at the line over anyone else.

When it comes to clutch shooting, I really believe the best weapon is the mid-range game. And since that's become Tony's go-to shot late and it's a big part of Tim's face-up game (catching off the pick-and-pop or finishing of others penetration), I'd want those two shooting the ball over Manu; but I'd prefer it come off of Manu's play-making and after it's been determined Manu can't get to the rim (where he can finish or get fouled -- which is usually the higher percentage play).

As for the stats, I take them with a grain of salt when it comes to this particular facet. They tend to be deceiving in this aspect.

If you're someone that's a designated closer for a team and asked to come through time-and-time again, the numbers tend to skew. You're put in a position to make the right play, at the right time, and you're asked to do it when the opposition knows full well your purpose -- they game plan for it. You're seeing better, tougher defense and you're often times forced to take less-than-ideal shots -- it doesn't matter where you are on the floor, if you've got the seams lined up, if you're in a rhythm or having an off night ... you're expected to take-and-make the shot or play. Thus, percentages go down and it paints a deceptive picture.

[Waps1980]

Manu cos if there is a foul on the play he's the only one out of those 3 I want shooting pressure ft's.

Who'd hit game winners this season for us?
I recall RJ hitting a shot to put a game in OT.

[milkyway21]

@ Mason

[Sense]

I picked Manu, mainly because of how he's played recently....

But looking back at the championship runs... or most of them, Tony Parker's mid range jumper has killed a lot of teams.



Either one...

[m33p0]

is it a question of who has the ball in the final play?
- Manu, of course.
or who actually shoots it?
-Tim, cuz he's done it so many times.