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Very cool.
That is not how the 3-way tie works.
Denver wins division over Utah by virtue of 3-1 in regular season.
So Dallas 2 and Denver 3 since Dallas won the series head to head.
How all three did head to head would only be pertinent if all 3 were division winners or if none were division winners.
Very cool.
What has to happen in order for us to play the twolves?...we killed the last night
To sum:
Spurs play Dallas = 24/32 = 75%
Spurs play Denver = 5/32 = 16%
Spurs play PHX = 2/32 = 6%
Spurs play Utah = 1/32 = 3%
This assumes every individual game has equal probability. In fact, GSW winning vs. Portland is less than 50%, so the chances of the Spurs playing Denver or Phoenix are actually less than above.
We have no shot of playing PHX because they can finish no better than fourth. We have a higher probability of playing Utah or Dallas than we do Denver. I don't like Denver's chances against PHX and Utah should win their two remaining games.
Phoenix CAN move up to #3. Division winners are only guaranteed a top four seed nowadays. They changed the rule after that messed up '06 bracket.
Assuming the chart above is accurate, there are 8/32 possibilities for Phoenix to finish third.
hey im just glad that i started a thread of meaning and people actually reposted to it hahaha
Well we have the 7 nomatter what right because we have the head to head against OKC and a better conference record. So win or lose against Dallas it should be Spurs and Dallas in round 1..
Actually, if the Spurs lose, they play the Mavs, but if they win, there's a 50% chance they play somebody else.
Yep, your right. I forgot about that change. I still think odds are Denver loses the division to Utah. Denver should lose at PHX and utah should win out. Unless GS pulls off a miracle, Portland is a lock for sixth. This means that most likely, we will play Dallas or Utah. I prefer Dallas, but neither matchup excites me. If Denver should win at PHX, and I'm keeping my fingers crossed they do, then Denver will take the division and its possible to play them in the first round.
exactly
it's very simple. If spurs beat dallas, spurs face utah. If spurs lose to dallas, spurs face dallas.
Isn't this only true if Utah wins out as well?
so do we go full speed against the mavs and try to get someone else? but then if we lose we end up showing our cards and it could backfire.
or do we rest the last game... let timmy and manu recover for 4 days say screw it and go balls to walls against dallas......
what do yall think?
Thanks... I couldn't figure out why everybody was saying that Denver has no shot at #2.
I feel EXACTLY---the same way.DAMN DAMN DAMN DAMN
I really wanted the Lakers in the first round with Bynum still injured, Dallas in round one is an absolute worst case scenario for us
why did OKC have to suck so hard this last week?!?
DAMN
...and I really believe the LAKERS ---were/are the easiest match-up in the first round for the spurs...
spurs just made their life a whole lot HARDER by avoiding the lakers...
but I will be pulling hard that they show up full-force against dallas---and the refs....
irk= 30+ free throws avg---per game= at least 27 free points....
nightmare....
That was good.
Best case scenario, IMO, then is for us to beat Dallas and GS to beat Pdx, so that we can play Denver as the #6 seed.
Most likely case scenario is that we will play Dallas or Utah as the #7 seed.
LOL. don't be deceived. Lakers have shut themselves down till the playoffs cause they're banged up. But trust me, come playoff time, they will turn it back up and oust anyone they face in the first round. But any one of the teams has the potential to make it tough for them, and I don't think it is as much a given that they make it out of the second round. But no way is LA losing to ANYONE in the first round. Kobe can carry his team on his own, if he has to, through 1 round...
So who are we rooting for tonight? I assume we hope Utah somehow loses, so that Dallas will have #2 locked up and we might have an easier game tomorrow to move up in the standings.
Uh, wrong. If the Spurs beat Dallas, there's still a 50% chance they play the Mavs again anyway.
Are people just not bothering to look at the chart?
So Phx is winningby 15 pts tonite in the 1st, this is good right ?
genius!! +++
Phoenix is having a big lead over Denver right now. Utah should be getting the W. It should look like this if the above is true. Correct me if I am wrong over the Jazz/Sun tiebreaker.
1. Lakers
2. Dallas - 54 W 27 L
3. Utah - 53 W 28 L
4. Phoenix - 53 W 28 L
5. Denver - 53 W 29 L
6. Portland - 50 W 31 L
7. San Antonio - 50 W 31 L
8. Oklahoma - 49 W 32 L
The Suns and Jazz win, so there are only 8 possibilities left (lines 17-24).
I actually like sorting it this way better since tonight's games are on the left and will determine the subcategory for tomorrow.
If Dallas wins, its Spurs (7) vs. Dallas (2).
If the Spurs win, then the Utah-Phoenix game becomes huge, as a Utah win gives them the #2, whereas a Utah loss drops them all the way to #5. The Suns have home court either way at #3 or #4, so you think they will be a little less motivated. Assuming the extremely high probability of a Portland win vs. GS, then it's probably going to be Spurs (7) vs. Utah (2).
If Utah loses, however, then it's Spurs (7) vs. Dallas (2) again.
If Portland chokes against GS, then the Spurs are in the #6 against either Dallas or Phoenix.
If I had to assign overall probabilities, I'd guess it's the following
Spurs (7) vs. Dallas (2) 50%
Spurs (7) vs. Utah (2) 40%
Spurs (6) vs. Dallas (3) 7%
Spurs (6) vs. Phoenix (3) 3%
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