Have the Spurs Risen to Championship Level?

[Tbiggums47]

Even though they have struggled this year, the Spurs have quietly maintained some impressive stats against the rest of the league. The main problem has obviously been turnovers, but they have improved there since the All Star break. Believe it or not - just going by the numbers, the most likely pick for the finals would be Spurs vs Cavs (with Orlando in the ECF).

Have a look at where they rank in most of the important team stats:

Point differential (points for - points against) - Spurs are 4th in the league behind Orlando, Cleveland, and Utah.

Assist differential (assists for - assists against) - Spurs are 4th in the league, behind Utah, Boston, and Dallas.

Efficiency differential (Off Efficiency - Def Efficiency) - Spurs are 4th in the league, behind Orlando, Cleveland, and Phoenix

Rebound differential - Spurs are 3rd in the league, behind Cleveland and Memphis.

ORR differential (offensive rebound rate - opponents ORR) - Spurs are third in the league, behind Memphis and Detroit.

Opponents True Shooting % (weighted for 3P, FT's, etc.) - Spurs are fourth in the league, behind Orlando, LA, and Cleveland.

Defensive Rebound Rate - Spurs are fourth in the league, behind Orlando, Cleveland, and Milwaukee.

Total Rebound Rate - Spurs are third, behind Cleveland and Memphis


And remember, those are regular season stats. The Spurs appear to have taken it up a notch recently. If everyone stays healthy, and if they manage the turnovers, they can compete with anyone - although the numbers AND their record suggest that beating Cleveland would take one of a team effort.

Good Point GSH,

I'm going out on a limb and saying "Yes" The Spurs are playing at a championship level..And..If there was one example of that..I would say that it was in the 3rd quarter of game 3 when after they lost the lead..They were able to "maintain their composure" and fight back to knock the lead down..Maintain that energy in the fouth quarter..Then take the lead...I got shivers when I saw that..THAT is championship Meddle..Folks! Its not only having the firepower to blow people out but the Will to control a game. This team has controlled the tempo of all three games. Remember..The Pundits said that Dallas was Championship Caliber with their midseason trade....So if that is true they will display that desire tonight..And the Spurs..Being the 4 time Champions that they are will exhibit the same character...If they are Championship Caliber! Tonight should let us know a lot about both teams...Go Spurs!

[Tbiggums47]

As long as RJ can not consistantly contribute on the court, they have not.

what if G HIll contributes in stead of RJ?

[Agloco]

At the start of the '09-'10 season, San Antonio was beaming after the signing of Antonio McDyess, the drafting of Dejuan Blair and of course, the perceived theft of Richard Jefferson from the Milwaukee Bucks. While most analysts still favored the Lakers to emerge from the West, there was a general consensus that the Spurs were legitimate contenders who belonged in the championship conversation.

Then they started playing basketball games.

Through the first four months of the season, Greg Popovich's troops did most everything in their power to convince us they were NOT championship contenders. And we believed them. Why wouldn't we? While they feasted on bottom feeders, time and time again they imitated a mouse in a viper pit against +.500 teams.

Many San Antonio fans clinged to hope that the "Rodeo Road Trip" would unite what appeared to be a disjointed, disheartened... and perhaps even slightly disinterested roster, as it had in so many seasons past. But the Spurs managed a mere 4-4 mark on the road trip and were no better off when they returned home.

Then... right about the time when even the most optimistic Spurs fans began to abandon hope, things began to change. Super-Manu reemerged, Richard Jefferson returned from... well, wherever the he was for the first four months of the season, and the Silver and Black began to more closely resemble the team most of us envisioned over the summer.

Despite the loss of Tony Parker to a broken hand, San Antonio went 18-7 and played .720 basketball from February 28 until the final game of the season. Just as - or perhaps MORE - importantly, this unit finally proved they could beat the NBA's best. Over the final 22 games of the season, they beat the Lakers, Cavs, Magic, Celtics, and defeated the Nuggets and Thunder on the road (on the second night of a back-to-backs).

After spending so much of the season helping the league forget all about them, few noticed the Spurs' late-season surge. Had San Antonio performed as well from day-1 of the season as they played in its final six weeks, it's unlikely they ever would have been tagged with the large "underdog" label they wore into post-season play.

But let's face it... just as long as you play well enough to deserve a playoff berth (or play in the Eastern Conference), the games played during the regular season are little more than a prolonged series of exhibition games. It's compe ive foreplay. All that matters is how healthy and effective your team is come playoff time. And as Tim Duncan pointed out after last night's game-3 victory over the Mavericks to take a 2-1 series lead, the Spurs are playing their best basketball of the season, and they're finally healthy.

After a game-1 performance more in keeping with their early season play, the Spurs flashed the closest thing to championship form in games 2 and 3 that we've seen from this team in at least two years... or perhaps even since they hoisted their last Larry O'Brien trophy.

Is it possible? Are the Spurs peaking at exactly the right time? Could it happen?

In a word.......no.

I'd like to see them oust the Mavericks first, the critique them on how it got done. Even then, there's still three rounds left to the promised land. It's WAAAY too early for this kind of talk.

[Bambililos]

As long as RJ can not consistantly contribute on the court, they have not.

This.

[Horse]

They've risen to "Maybe Can Beat the Mavs" Level. Which is a huge improvement from where they were in February and March.

Beating the Lakers, Cavs, or Magicn in a seven-game series would require another level entirely. if Hill gets fully healthy, and they start getting something meaningful from Blair and Bonner, it's possible.

I agree we have to step it up even more for a championship, but have you seen the lakers or cavs lately there is no unbeatable great team out there and with a little luck and a hot streak anyone really could win it all.

[Horse]

not yet, but i'm holding out hope that they can, especially depending on the matchups.

no way in we beat lebron, but the magic? maybe....

Man I fear lebron just a little more than I did in 07. I mean there pretty much the same stand around and watch lebron do everything and believe Pop is the best when it comes to letting a great player get his and taking everyone else away like your seeing against the mavs. shaq is garbage and will ruin this teams chances like he did to phoenix. I don't think they beat the magic if they play.

[pgardn]

No.

But maybe West Conference champs. No one looks to be without severe areas of weaknesses in the West.

Our display with the Mavs revolves around a few luxuries we may not find with other teams:

1. Duncan is really not having to put a lot of effort in on D. Imo he has been so lively offensively while playing more minutes because he can take a bit of a rest. Think about Duncan on Gasol or Bynum. He will not get rest.

2. Jason Kidd plays defense only in the last quarter. We are penetrating, getting wide open shots and not even shooting that well... Did we even hit a 3 last game?

3. The Mavs are having to earn their baskets, we are getting easier looks and more junk baskets.

Dirk is still the key. He is the guy, if he has a little help, who can go off on us. It is still a mystery to me why Dallas completely left Butler on the bench after he went bad in the 1st quarter. He was overpowering and hurting us game 1 and 2. No one on their team can really push us around except Butler. The Mavs have got to hit from the outside consistently to draw us out and open up lanes. Otherwise its tough jumpers all night and its not easy to win this way. Possible, but not easy. If we are hitting 3's as well as scoring in the paint Dallas is in real trouble.

[ohmwrecker]

I think the odds are pretty fair and getting better with each win. We definitely have the toughest 1st round opponent with an in-state division rival with a lot of history. The Lakers have their hands full with OKC, Portland/PHX is looking like a 7 game series, Jazz/Thuggets look like two bad teams right now. I say are odds of going to the Finals this year are not as bad as everybody is making them out to be.
Yeah, I know . . . "but we don't match up well with the Lakers." Everyone said the same thing about Dallas and the Spurs are giving them all they can handle right now.

Also, the Spurs look like the only team in the west that is still improving. Everyone else has either already peaked or has gotten a lot worse.

[ShoogarBear]

I agree we have to step it up even more for a championship, but have you seen the lakers or cavs lately there is no unbeatable great team out there and with a little luck and a hot streak anyone really could win it all.

There isn't a team that looks unbeatable now, but if the Lakers advance it will have to be because they're playing better than they are now. And the ceiling for how they can play is higher for them and the Cavs than it is for the Spurs.

Course, if the Thunder win, game is wide open.

[wut]

First off it was the improvement of our team defense, that you can attribute to the wins in the last few months of basketball.

Secondly deep down I'm not very confident in the Spurs just yet. While I don't think anyone has answers for a healthy Manu/Parker .... it's the consistency of everyone else (outside of Duncan/Manu/Parker) that worries me.

Right now you can tell the team is really coming together and gaining some momentum; so anything is possible.

[DPG21920]

Spurs have to get by the Mavs first. If they do, that will be one huge obstacle out of the way. But that is not a forgone conclusion, and that is just the first round.

[GSH]

Don't forget the gauntlet the Spurs ran at the end of the season. They beat Denver, LA, Orlando, Cleveland, Boston, Miami, Atlanta, and OKC in a pretty short stretch of games. And that was without the whole roster being healthy. I don't think anyone is saying the Spurs are going to dominate the playoffs. The question was whether they are playing at a level that gives them a shot at a championship. I don't think anyone would have said "yes" at mid-season. But this doesn't even look like the same team now.

I think the single biggest hole in the Spurs game right now is at the 3P line: Before the All Star break, the team was shooting 37.1% from the 3P line. After the break they dropped to 34%, which is near the bottom of the league.
At home, we shot 3-pointers at 39% for the season. But on the road we shot 32.7%, which is second to last in the league.
In our wins, we made 40.8% of 3-pointers. In our losses, we made 28.5%.

Mason, Jefferson, and Bonner aren't getting it done. The Spurs need the firepower, but they also need those 3's to stretch opposing defenses. I think we'll have a hard time going deep in the playoffs unless somebody steps up and starts draining some 3-point shots. Remember Brent Barry?

[Kent_in_Atlanta]

If the Spurs win tonight, I think it's going to be tough to definitively say "no, the Spurs are le contenders". Which is not to say that if they lose tonight, they're not legit... but a 3-1 series and a possible 5 or 6 game series victory would certainly put the Spurs back in the conversation when we talk about teams with a chance to be there at the end, IMHO.

[Kent_in_Atlanta]

I think the single biggest hole in the Spurs game right now is at the 3P line: Before the All Star break, the team was shooting 37.1% from the 3P line. After the break they dropped to 34%, which is near the bottom of the league.
At home, we shot 3-pointers at 39% for the season. But on the road we shot 32.7%, which is second to last in the league.
In our wins, we made 40.8% of 3-pointers. In our losses, we made 28.5%.

Mason, Jefferson, and Bonner aren't getting it done. The Spurs need the firepower, but they also need those 3's to stretch opposing defenses. I think we'll have a hard time going deep in the playoffs unless somebody steps up and starts draining some 3-point shots. Remember Brent Barry?

Agreed. The guys who are supposed to be hitting from outside aren't getting the job done. Bonner and Mason, in particular. Hope they get it going soon.

[Cant_Be_Faded]

We are still one consistent impact player away.

[TDMVPDPOY]

healthy spurs team fears no one

i like this low seed, if we can win it all at 7th seed without hca and going through strong teams this will help elevate duncans ranking on the all-time list

[Horse]

Agreed. The guys who are supposed to be hitting from outside aren't getting the job done. Bonner and Mason, in particular. Hope they get it going soon.

Really, that's like their only job, and on this team they get such good looks they need to knock em down already. Oh how I miss Bruce and Bigshot Bob.

[GSH]

yes!

[sananspursfan21]

the mavs are the scariest team to me in these playoffs.... for the spurs anyways. the fact that they're commanding the mavs lick the floor in this series makes me believe the spurs can do some serious damage in the playoffs, regardless of who they play. championship....maybe, maybe not, but i'm lovin they're chances

[dav4463]

Let's win this series first and just enjoy the ride. We are so privileged to be fans during the Tim Duncan era !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Hooks]

I think we're 1 defensive big man away from being able to win an NBA championship, I just don't see us winning with Bonner, Dyess and Blair as our big men...if only we had a young athletic center that has the ability to alter shots in the paint...if only......

[Kent_in_Atlanta]

I think we're 1 defensive big man away from being able to win an NBA championship, I just don't see us winning with Bonner, Dyess and Blair as our big men...if only we had a young athletic center that has the ability to alter shots in the paint...if only......

The good news is... EVERY team has reasons why they can't win the championship this year. The '94 Bulls aren't playing this year. There are no perfect teams. The Spurs may have their flaws, but then, so does everyone else.

[tdunk21]

Watch the spurs lose tomorrow and then the whole forum will go ape and the "fire pop", "trade duncan/parker/manu/ for Lebron" threads will come..
That's the typical spur fan I know.

disappointed rayray????least knowledgeable poster on spurstalk is so true....

[Kent_in_Atlanta]

I'm just disappointed we didn't get a camera shot of Mark Cuban after the game. I was PRAYING for the camera to pan to Cuban... I was dying to see the look on his face. I really enjoy watching his spirit crushed. He's such an asshole. lol