Top Ten Keys - Spurs vs. Suns 2010 Playoff Preview

[DBMethos]

TP and Manu need to be in attack mode all game

Add Hill/RJ to that as well.

[NFGIII]

Manu's recovery worries me most - if you were the Suns, especially given our past against them, wouldn't roughing up Manu be the first thing you'd do? A good hit to the nose could put him out of any game, and that's a real concern.

IF they rough up Manu then we do the same with Nash. All in the context of good hard nosed PO fouls.

After that, Phoenix's three-point shooting is my next biggest concern because they can rack up points in a real hurry when they are hot and they have a lot of shooters.

Agreed. This team gets really energized when those 3s are raining down so our transition D is crucial to hopefully controling this issue. They. more than any other team, seem to shoot the 3 on the break more.

The transition D, which worried the out of me all season - I'm sure it was the most inconsistent of any Spurs team for a decade - wasn't a problem in the Mavs series. In fact, it was consistently excellent. I hope we can keep it up.

Ditto. This will be critical for the Spurs. See Above.

Someone (or two) from the bench is going to have to step up to even that gap. In his limited minutes in the first round, I think, Blair showed an ability to be an energy guy and disruptive force on the boards.

One of the shooters has to step up. I think though, as others have pointed out, that this is a tailor made series for Bonner. The Suns primary big off the bench is Frye, a guy who Bonner should be able to match up well with.

With the lack of bigs on the Suns I think Blair can definitely be a force for us. If so then TD will get some much needed rest. I really don't want him playing 38 - 40 mpg. There isn't enough days off between games for him to recover sufficiently enough and might wear down by the end of the series.

And you are correct that one of the shooters had got to start contibuting more. Our rotation is basically at 6 or 6.5. This will effect our play as the series wears on. We need an 8 - 9 man rotation just as Timvp said. Anything short of that will make it more difficult to win the series.

Jefferson must maintain his defensive focus that he flashed in the first round, while upping his offensive game. In a series where the Spurs will have opportunities to selectively run he could be a great weapon when paired with Hill/Manu or TP.

I believe he is key to beating the Suns. He needs to continue his focus on both ends and especially make JR work hard. If he makes JR work on the defensive end then this will have an effect on JR point production. I think I heard a stat that the Suns have something like a gazillion wins (forgot the # ) against only 4 loses when JR scores over 20 ppg. And he averaged 23 against the Trailblazers.

Wow... a fan from the opposing team who shows up to talk basketball instead of trolling? Very cool.

Actually he is one of the best non Spurs posters here. In fact he is one of the best posters period. Rarely runs bs smack (we all do from time to time but it is in the spirit of good fun) but does defend his team and make very good points. I'd take him over many of the really obnoxious Spurs posters here anyday.

Question for you (or anyone else):

You didn't mention him much, but how does Blair factor in that same key? Timmy can't go 38-40 mins/night (every other night) and producing at a high level offensively for the series. He'll need rest to continue to produce and stay efficient.

Is it just as important for Blair to give us interior points when he gets in to allow Tim to rest and keep us going against their second unit?

Good points. I think that Blair will need to produce more and with the lack of bigs I think he will be able to do so. But he is a rookie and therefore prone to making those types of mistakes. It may turn out to be a crap shoot where you get what you get. He may be more productive at home while stinking it up on the road. But you really don't know until it happens. He's too young and inexperienced to count on any type of consistency at this point. IMHO

And yes I hope he does because we will need for TD to get rest and not play in the 38 - 40+ mpg territory.

[coyotes_geek]

Yeah but we have a late 2nd round in 2016 for that give-up

It was IMO a bad move really.

Meh. Having another big would have been nice, and like I said earlier I think the Spurs would have kept him had they known how things would turn out. But whenever this postseason comes to an end I just don't see myself saying "if we only had Theo Ratliff". So in that sense I don't think it's worth getting worked up over.

[TD 21]

This notion of Duncan "being Duncan" isn't going to happen every game. This will be a relatively up tempo series and it goes every other day until game seven, so expect a similar performance to last round out of Duncan, as far as him probably having two out of six games where he's off (I expect better overall numbers though, because the offense will run through him more and he has a more favorable matchup).

This is why it's important that the Spurs win the games they have to win, so that they can pull the plug early and get him rest in one-two games in this series. Game one is hugely important for this reason. The energy he and McDyess have tonight probably will not be higher than in tonight's game. The Spurs have to take advantage of this, Nash's ailing hip and likely no Lopez and steal game one, so that game two becomes a throwaway game. Then they can rest up to take care of business at home.

As for the three point shooting gap, this is why I expect Mason to get the call over Bogans in this series more often than not (particularly at the start). The Spurs will want as much firepower and shooting on the floor as possible and even though he's shot it terribly for a long while, I still expect Pop to give him opportunity in this series.

Hill needs to attack Nash on offense, otherwise it might be best to close with Parker, Ginobili and Jefferson on the perimeter, particularly if Parker can do the job defensively on Nash. The Spurs would lose three point shooting in this alignment, but they'd make it so there wouldn't be a single player that Nash would even have a shot at guarding. Jefferson may not be a great creator, but he's too big and strong for Nash to cover. I'm not necessarily advocating this, but it's definitely something to consider.

[GSH]

Believe it or not, I think one of the biggest keys to beating the Suns is keeping Hill and Richardson off the glass, and outfighting them for some of the long rebounds off of 3-point attempts. Those two guys pick up A LOT of the rebounds that get the Suns easy points, and they just killed Portland.

Nash and Stoudamire are going to get their points. A lot of the Suns losses have involved Richardson having a sub-par game. He was unconscious against Portland, but he normally doesn't shoot FT's all that well. Pushing him hard on defense is key, even if it means burning a few fouls - just to try and keep him out of rhythm.

I know Pop won't do it, but I'd love to see him put Garret Temple on Dudley when the Suns put him in the game. Dudley's points have helped the Suns a lot over the course of the season. I think Temple would kick his ass defensively. And the Suns would probably ignore him out on the corner - at least until he knocked down a few 3's. Temple has the length and quickness to run Dudley off the 3P line, where he does the most damage, and that is tiring work. That's one of the ways Pop could create some of the depth that TimVP talked about.

11 boards for Hill and Richardson hurt. The 11 by Dudley and Amundson hurt worse.

Richardson 2-8 in the first half. They didn't stay with him in the second.

Pop didn't play Hill in last year's playoffs, and regretted it. I hope he'll put Temple in this year. I still think he could, and would have stuck to Dudley better. And he's 6'6", so he'd be a little tougher for Dudley to shoot over. I also like his chances of nailing at least one or two 3's a lot better than Mason, Bonner, or Bogans. They need to get someone else involved, and he's about the only hope.

[Blackjack]

Temple's a long 6-5, not 6-6, but, yeah ... I'm all for it; they've got to get some kind of contribution off their bench and it's pretty clear it isn't going to come from Bogans or Mason.

I suggested Bogans needed to play because, frankly, I didn't see another option. How realistic is it to expect Pop to play Temple? Yeah, not so much . . .

But it's pretty apparent that the Suns are better constructed to win at what they do than the Spurs are at what they've been known to do: "The Suns would've never been able to beat the Spurs shooting 42-percent!," Collins or Harland made mention to after the final buzzer sounded.

Correction: The Phoenix Suns would've never beat the Spurs, as we've known them, shooting 42-percent; these Spurs is another story.

Simply put: The Suns are a better offensive team. There's no disputing that. So if the Spurs are going to get beat on the boards (in both games and to the tune of 18 offensive rebounds in Game 2) and not have the ability to defend the three or counter with a three-point attack of their own, how exactly are they supposed to win?

They're not; the Spurs have questions that need to be answered and they probably don't have the means to figure them out.

Cheerio!