Random Thoughts Before Game 3 - Spurs vs. Suns 2010

[SirChaz]

If they start Hill and Parker either Richardson or Hill will punish them in the post.

If I was the Spurs I would start my best players even if I have to sub them out early so I can have at least 2 starters in with the bench. Minus any foul trouble I would probably bring out Parker and/or Duncan first then give Manu a rest when they come back. In the second half I would give Manu a little longer rest so he is ready for the fourth quarter.

Starters:
Parker
Ginobili
Jefferson
Duncan
McDyess

[The Truth #6]

More Blair and Dice, less Bonner unless we're somehow blowing them out. Give Ian a chance if we need someone to chase Frye or if Dudley is killing on the glass. Bogans is the best of our worst at this point, so he could be tolerable for a few 3-4 minute stretches, though I think Temple has about the same chance for success/failure, depending on the match up.

Hopefully Hill will improve each game, just like last series. (Those Big 4 articles look really silly at this point, but he's still getting used to playoff basketball.)

We need to continue to attack with Tim in the post. That could tire out Tim early, but if he's out there he needs to dominate on offense, and if he needs more rest this game because of it, then we'll have to take that chance.

[GrandeDavid]

This is one of my favorite playoff games in recent memory. So much at stake plus the fact that our four matchup playoff win streak against Phoenix is in jeopardy tonight. Should be a fun game!

[xapatan2]

So few people questionning the Parker thing is beyond my understanding

Nash must drinking beers thinking about being left so easily in his confort zone

The force of a team in sports is to impose his strenghs and will, we just don't do that.

Believe

X

[Blackjack]

Suns Spurs Analysis thru 2
Wayne Winston

Still have 350 exams to grade, but here is the essence of Spurs Suns series so far. As we predicted, Dudley and Frye have been the keys.

• With Nash in with Frye and or Dudley Suns are +32 points in 52 minutes, playing 32 points (after adjusting for opponent ability) better than average. In 37 of those minutes George Hill was on court and Spurs were down 31 points.

• Rest of time Suns are -15 points playing 11 points worse than average.

For Spurs, George Hill has hurt them.

• Hill in 64 minutes Spurs are -34 points, playing 15 points worse than average.

• Hill out 32 minutes Spurs are +17 points playing 36 points better thn average.

So what to do? I have to grade some more, but either figure out what Hill is doing wrong, play him less or surely play him less when Dudleyand/or Frye are in hitting those 3’s!

[Blackjack]

George really doesn't have a favorable matchup for the Spurs that would allow him to play enough minutes to have the effect you'd hope. So, what does that mean?

Indy has to start making himself the mismatch he's capable of being offensively and play smarter and more sound defense on the other -- they're not going to pull this thing out if this trend continues, they don't have the depth to lose what has been the presence of their fourth best player.

[silverblk mystix]

I would like to see a couple of wrinkles added---just to throw the suns off a little...

#1) throw in a zone D --every once in a while to throw off that P & R

#2)spurs players---show some freaking emotion...I just did NOT see any emotion from anyone---yes I saw the big three and RJ show some determination and some intensity---but I did NOT sense that their hearts were into the game---almost like they were TOO controlled---TOO subdued... I would hope that the home crowd gets their adrenaline pumping and they go from being determined---to being pumped---to getting their SWAGGER back and get their BALLS back...

[tdunk21]

ball rotation....hit open shots....make free throws....transition defense.....rebound better....

[Slippy]

As much as i love Blair's game he was one of the reasons the spurs were giving up offensive boards in the second quarter of game 2. Grabbing the rebound with one hand and not concentrating on boxing is too complacent for my liking. The guards have to help out too.

Not sure i'd want Blair guarding Frye on on the perimeter either.

[TD 21]

-Continuing on the previous thought, doesn't Pop have to give Matt Bonner and Roger Mason, Jr. a look in the first half tonight? I know, I vomited even writing that sentence and I can't wait for those two players to be off the team for good but Pop's hand is pretty much forced right now. The Suns are too deep to get back into this series by the Spurs running their starters into the ground. Pop has to find at least a few productive minutes from players deeper in the rotation. Both players shot much, much better at home this season. If one of them can hit a few three-pointers, that would be huge. Is it worth the risk?

-Tonight, if the Spurs use the home crowd to start strong or make a run at some point, they have to know that any size lead can evaporate against the Suns in a matter of minutes. If the Spurs let their guard down with a lead, like they did plenty of times against the Mavs, these Suns will blow you out. The Spurs need 48 minutes of concentration, especially defensively.

-It's true that the Suns role players don't shoot as well on the road but I wouldn't dare them. Stay dedicated to taking away three-pointers, get back on transition and force Nash to do the heavy lifting.

-If the Spurs can get the win tonight, I'd think the pressure shift back to Phoenix. They know they need a split here to really put the Spurs on their heels. Win this contest and then Game 4 will decide whether or not this is a long series.

No, he doesn't have to give either a look, nor should he unless the game turns into a blowout. Maybe the Spurs can't run their starters into the ground in every game to win the series, but they can tonight and in game four. The season is on the line tonight and if they win tonight, again on Sunday. It all comes down to this weekend and you want to chance throwing away months and months of hard work and preparation to squeeze an extra few minutes out of two scrubs who have had more than enough chances? I don't get it.

I'd play eight guys, play everyone in the top six without minute restrictions (within' reason, obviously, I'm not saying play someone 48 minutes) and try to even this series up. If and when that get's accomplished, then take a shot early in game five (similar to the Mavs series) and if it's obvious that it's not going to be a win, pull the plug early and save the top players legs for game six. Then after a two day break, takes your chances at winning one on the road in game seven.

I agree with your second and third points. The Spurs aren't going to win this game just because they're back home. This Suns team is too dangerous, too deep and too determined for that. They're not going to let up because of the past history between the two teams. And with their explosive offense, any lull, no matter how long or short, could easily be costly.

Disagree with your fourth point. The pressure would still be on the Spurs, who were/are expected by many to win this series or at least make it a long series. To go out meekly in five, I don't know if anyone predicted that. Whatever happened to a series doesn't start until a home team loses? All of a sudden, that mentality is out the window. However, if the Spurs were to win game four (in addition to game three), then all of the pressure shifts to the Suns.

[word]

Parker and Ginobili driving the lane. Find Hill for the three. Offensive rebounds. jefferson shows up, mug Amare, get back on D.


Win !!

Oh and nooo Bonner unless he gets 3 per 3 minutes. Same with Mason. If they can't get going with the shooting, get 'em out. Defensive liability is too much for those guys not to be scoring. Blair s Amare up...foul HARD.

[Zammers]

My analysis would be:

Not necessary to start Parker....keep the lineup the same and get George Hill going in this series. We can always rely on the Big 3, but we aren't going to win this series without someone else stepping up. Bring Parker back into the lineup in Game 5 back in Phoenix to shock the system.

Dejuan Blair needs to play like an All-American. Stop overplaying and just get PHYSICAL. That is all we need him to be.

Bonner needs to start knocking down some open 3's like he did in the Mavs series and pester the Suns Bigs down low.

Dice needs to stretch the D with his outside jumper. Once the inside opens up we feast.

Spacing on defense needs to get better. Nash won't have these legs the whole series so we need to take it to him and make him work both ends of the floor. If Nash is not in rhythm neither are the Suns.

[MaNu4Tres]

Defense has won us 4 championships. Remember that.

Pop needs to make adjustments that enhances the Spurs ability to make stops.

Limit Small ball, super-glue Bonner and Mason to the end of the bench, Crash the defensive boards, give McDyess all of Bonner's minutes from last game.

Let's Go!

[TD 21]

It is necessary to start Parker, because off the bench minutes are limited. The Spurs need 40 minutes from Parker; not 36. Off the bench, it's tough to play a player more than 36 minutes. He sits the first five of each half generally, which is ten right there. Throw in the inevitable one-two minute break after his initial rotation and he ends up with mid-thirties minutes.

[word]

I'm gonna say this and it's probably 'controversial'....but one thing I noticed is when Parker has the ball, he can be pretty stingy going to Hill. Parker has to lay his pride down and get the ball to Hill for the three when he can.

Rip into me...

[xtremesteven33]

The Big 3 are playing well enough to win a series for sure...

They really miss their old role players though (Bowen,Horry,Barry)

[Capt Bringdown]

-If the Spurs can get the win tonight, I'd think the pressure shift back to Phoenix. They know they need a split here to really put the Spurs on their heels. Win this contest and then Game 4 will decide whether or not this is a long series.

Spurs need to win 4 of 5. I'd say the pressure is entirely in our camp, even if we get the win tonight. There's very little evidence we can get a win in their building.

[DAF86]

Whatever happened to the "stay home with the shooters" rule, the Suns have had more wide open threes in these past two games than in the previous 4 Spurs/Suns playoffs series combined.

[Obstructed_View]

Whatever happened to the "stay home with the shooters" rule, the Suns have had more wide open threes in these past two games than in the previous 4 Spurs/Suns playoffs series combined.

Stay home with the shooters doesn't work when you can't force dribblers baseline AND you don't have competent shot blocking inside. Those breakdowns require others to help and inevitably leaves shooters open.

[polandprzem]

pop will go with 3-2 zone or 1-2-2 zone

[quentin_compson]

Defense has won us 4 championships. Remember that.

True, but it was more than that. Right now, guys who can step up and hit a three would be greatly appreciated, and the Spurs used to have that kind of players.

I expect George and even Matt to play better tonight. Hopefully, they won't prove me wrong.