Which, if any, of these are HOFs ?

[mardigan]

Chris Webber has a better chance than some of you think. I think he's borderline but he's close.

Totally. 21 and 10 over his 16 years or whatever it was is pretty damn impressive, even without the ring.

[Blake]

I don't think you can just dismiss two extra championships. For better or worse, those play in to the argument.

If DJ stays in Seattle, there's no way he gets another ring.

since DJ was the 3rd or 4th best player on those teams, I personally can dismiss them. No question though that playing in Boston and getting the 2 extra rings helped get him in.

Billups was basically one half away from having a 2nd ring and probably a 2nd Finals MVP trophy.

As well, he did make 7 more All-Defensive teams, six times on the first team. (Of which Billups was never chosen.)

that's true.

Finally, I think that Boston has a lot more East Coast Bias Pull than Detroit has or will ever have. When I think East Coast bias, I think NY/Boston... not Detroit.

I think Detroit and Boston/NY play each other enough times during the course of a season and throughout playoff games for voters to throw their bias out there.

I'm not saying Billups is better than DJ was.

I am saying I can see him getting in because DJ is in.

[JamStone]

Decided to go to basketball reference HOF probability to see what they thought. It obviously isn't 100% accurate but it's an interesting gauge because it is based on statistical information and it does seem somewhat accurate.

HOF Probability list: http://www.basketball-reference.com/...ob_career.html

The formula they use: http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/hof_prob.html

Basically, if you're ranked in the top 75 or so on the list, you're essentially a lock for the HOF unless you're Jo Jo White. Once you get past around 75, it's a guessing game. Once you get passed rank #90, you're unlikely to get in. The lowest ranked HOFer on this list of 250 players is Calvin Murphy at 205. There are only 4 HOFers ranked lower than 150.


Chris Webber - ranked 80th highest all time with a .7295 HOF probability. The only player above him who is eligible and not in the HOF is Jo Jo White. Ahead of guys like Mourning and Dikembe who some think are locks.

Rasheed Wallace - ranked 209th with a .0361 HOF probability. Won't and shouldn't get in.

Chauncey Billups - ranked 132nd with a .2144 HOF probability. Probably only consideration is the Finals MVP but likely won't make it.

Marc Jackson - unless I missed him, he's not in the top 250 players most likely to get in based on the formula.

Dikembe Mutombo - ranked 214th with a .0328 HOF probability. I could see him getting in more as a "contributor" than a "player" for his humanitarian acts as an NBA ambassador. I don't think he qualifies as a player.

Alonzo Mourning - ranked 106th with a .4723 HOF probability. I think 2006 helped him even though he was a back-up center and role player. Otherwise, I don't think he'd have a chance.

Robert Horry - not in the top 250 based on this formula.

Tracy McGrady - ranked 85th with a .6875 HOF probability. The modern perception of him by fans is much different from his actual statistical perception for the HOF. If he gets in, there will be plenty of people who will disagree with it, especially because of the playoff futility of the teams he's played for. But there's a far greater chance for him to get in than everyone else on the list other than his cousin. But I'm one of those who don't think he should get in either.

Grant Hill - ranked 111th with a .4405 HOF probability. Would rank higher if his college career was included.

Vince Carter - ranked 65th with .8628 HOF probability. A lot of what I said about T-Mac goes for Vince. But I think Vince could make it the same way Dominique did, over time with people appreciating his numbers and focusing less on what happened with his departure in Toronto and his inability to help teams get better later in his career. I initially said he wouldn't get in, but looking how highly he ranks statistically all time, I'm reconsidering that opinion.

Here are a couple other interesting names on the list and where they rank based on the formula they used.

Manu Ginobili - ranked 154th with a .1314 HOF probability. Doesn't take into consideration his international career.

Reggie Miller - ranked 190th with a .0553 HOF probability. Since there's a thread about him, thought I'd include him.

[LnGrrrR]

If DJ stays in Seattle, there's no way he gets another ring.

Probably. But theoreticals don't have a big place in HoF discussions. It's about what a person did or didn't do.

since DJ was the 3rd or 4th best player on those teams, I personally can dismiss them. No question though that playing in Boston and getting the 2 extra rings helped get him in.

True, and if Billups played as the 4th best person on two teams, he'd get a similar boost.

Billups was basically one half away from having a 2nd ring and probably a 2nd Finals MVP trophy.

And so was Pierce. Does that mean we should pretend like he got it?

I think Detroit and Boston/NY play each other enough times during the course of a season and throughout playoff games for voters to throw their bias out there.

Yes, but East Coast bias is more about media saturation. There's a ton of sports media in the East Coast (NY/BOS) moreso than Detroit/midwest. (Detroit isn't even the biggest media in that area, that would go to Chitown.)

I'm not saying Billups is better than DJ was.

I am saying I can see him getting in because DJ is in.

Fair enough. But the Hall of Fame isn't just "Hall of Best Statistical Players". Rings, situations, teams etc etc all should be taken into account. Fairly or unfairly, DJ gets a boost from being on those iconic Boston teams.

[JamStone]

On basketball reference's HOF probability, Dennis Johnson is ranked 102nd with a .5251 HOF probability. Above I already posted where Chauncey ranks.

[LnGrrrR]

Decided to go to basketball reference HOF probability to see what they thought. It obviously isn't 100% accurate but it's an interesting gauge because it is based on statistical information and it does seem somewhat accurate.

HOF Probability list: http://www.basketball-reference.com/...ob_career.html

The formula they use: http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/hof_prob.html

Basically, if you're ranked in the top 75 or so on the list, you're essentially a lock for the HOF unless you're Jo Jo White. Once you get past around 75, it's a guessing game. Once you get passed rank #90, you're unlikely to get in. The lowest ranked HOFer on this list of 250 players is Calvin Murphy at 205. There are only 4 HOFers ranked lower than 150.


Chris Webber - ranked 80th highest all time with a .7295 HOF probability. The only player above him who is eligible and not in the HOF is Jo Jo White. Ahead of guys like Mourning and Dikembe who some think are locks.

Rasheed Wallace - ranked 209th with a .0361 HOF probability. Won't and shouldn't get in.

Chauncey Billups - ranked 132nd with a .2144 HOF probability. Probably only consideration is the Finals MVP but likely won't make it.

Marc Jackson - unless I missed him, he's not in the top 250 players most likely to get in based on the formula.

Dikembe Mutombo - ranked 214th with a .0328 HOF probability. I could see him getting in more as a "contributor" than a "player" for his humanitarian acts as an NBA ambassador. I don't think he qualifies as a player.

Alonzo Mourning - ranked 106th with a .4723 HOF probability. I think 2006 helped him even though he was a back-up center and role player. Otherwise, I don't think he'd have a chance.

Robert Horry - not in the top 250 based on this formula.

Tracy McGrady - ranked 85th with a .6875 HOF probability. The modern perception of him by fans is much different from his actual statistical perception for the HOF. If he gets in, there will be plenty of people who will disagree with it, especially because of the playoff futility of the teams he's played for. But there's a far greater chance for him to get in than everyone else on the list other than his cousin. But I'm one of those who don't think he should get in either.

Grant Hill - ranked 111th with a .4405 HOF probability. Would rank higher if his college career was included.

Vince Carter - ranked 65th with .8628 HOF probability. A lot of what I said about T-Mac goes for Vince. But I think Vince could make it the same way Dominique did, over time with people appreciating his numbers and focusing less on what happened with his departure in Toronto and his inability to help teams get better later in his career. I initially said he wouldn't get in, but looking how highly he ranks statistically all time, I'm reconsidering that opinion.

Here are a couple other interesting names on the list and where they rank based on the formula they used.

Manu Ginobili - ranked 154th with a .1314 HOF probability. Doesn't take into consideration his international career.

Reggie Miller - ranked 190th with a .0553 HOF probability. Since there's a thread about him, thought I'd include him.

Good stuff Jam. I think Dikembe gets in not just for his contributions, but I think he's a memorable player. Sometimes I think the whole "fame" thing gets lost in the statistics.

Vince Carter was famous, explosive, and good stats. So why won't he make it in? Because there were other players who fit into the mold, but were more famous and have better stats. I don't think many players fit Dikembe's mold (and frankly, I think that defensive specialists are underrepresented in the Hall, which is why I appreciate DJ being in even if he doesn't have the stats.)

Offensive-minded players have stats that pop, defensive players have only RPG and BPG, and of the two, only RPG is a glamour stat.

[Killakobe81]

Good stuff Jam. I think Dikembe gets in not just for his contributions, but I think he's a memorable player. Sometimes I think the whole "fame" thing gets lost in the statistics.

Vince Carter was famous, explosive, and good stats. So why won't he make it in? Because there were other players who fit into the mold, but were more famous and have better stats. I don't think many players fit Dikembe's mold (and frankly, I think that defensive specialists are underrepresented in the Hall, which is why I appreciate DJ being in even if he doesn't have the stats.)

Offensive-minded players have stats that pop, defensive players have only RPG and BPG, and of the two, only RPG is a glamour stat.

Great points by both Lngrr and Jam ...

thing to remember with Deke and Zo they won DPOY and had some decent stats on both offense and defense especially Alonzo. Plus the last memory of Alonzo is him outplaying shaq and Damp in Game 6 swatting every Mavs shot in sight ...that matters.

[LnGrrrR]

By that same token, even though he's only #115 and hasn't won a championship, I think there's an outside chance for Steve Nash because he's a unique player.

[JamStone]

Steve became a lock with his first MVP. And if it wasn't a lock then, it became a 100% certainty with his second MVP.

[Killakobe81]

By that same token, even though he's only #115 and hasn't won a championship, I think there's an outside chance for Steve Nash because he's a unique player.

Agree. I think he gets in for the bogus backtoback MVP's AND for increasing the tempo of the game (along with D'antoni) plus the media sucks him off every national game. TBH he is great probaly the best combo PG (shooting/passing) I have ever seen ... but his defense makes Magic and Isiah's defense look like DJ and GP's ...

[coyotes_geek]

By that same token, even though he's only #115 and hasn't won a championship, I think there's an outside chance for Steve Nash because he's a unique player.

With 2 mvps, Nash is a lock.

I'm pretty sure every player who has won even just one MVP who is HOF eligible is in.

[LnGrrrR]

Steve became a lock with his first MVP. And if it wasn't a lock then, it became a 100% certainty with his second MVP.

I totally blanked about those. Excellent point. Surprised that only puts him at #115.

[JMarkJohns]

It's the basketball Hall of Fame. Hill will be in for his college and for his Gold Medal on the 1996 Dream Team. I think the voters will look favorably on him and his NBA career because he had an elite peak that was derailed by injury, and, despite numerous setbacks, never retired, kept fighting, and has proven very valuable again.

[ambchang]

Chris Webber - Would love to see him get it. I always loved his game, and everyone knows he was robbed in 02. On top of that, his Fab Five contributions in college would only bolster his case. But he would be a borderline guy, he, fairly or unfairly, was perceived to be a problem guy. I would say he has the highest chance amongst this group.

Rasheed Wallace - Love his game, but no way would he make it. Fantastic talent, but never really asserted himself to be the true dominant, revoluntionary player that he could be.

Chauncey Billups - Little chance. Again, love his game, but he seemed to be a tad bit overrated, especially his defense. My take is no.


Mark Jackson - Not likely. He dished a lot, but he accomplished little else ( I am assuming you are talking about the NY and Clippers guard, not that fatso who played for the Warriors).

Dikembe Mutombo - Great role player, but he simply couldn't carry his team. Defensive anchor, and his 4 DPoY will help him. But defense alone don't get you into the HoF. Dennis Johnson had to wait till he died, Cooper couldn't make it, Moncrief couldn't make it, Bowen would never make it, ditto Mark Eaton. I wouldn't be surprised either way, but my bet would be no.

Alonzo Mourning - Defensive ace, decent offensive game. But his productive career was relatively short due to his health. Pretty much the same as likelihood as Mutombo when all factors are in.


Robert Horry - No way.

Tracy McGrady - Possible, due solely to his scoring le. But again, he was a flash in the pan superstar, just too short and too associated with horrible teams.

Grant Hill - Too injured. Not going to happen based on his pro career, but his college career could put him there.

Vince Carter - Not happening. He could have if he stayed in Toronto and lead Toronto deep into the playoffs for a few years in a row (which is entirely possible given how much the East sucked in the early 2000s), but instead, he chose to pout, went on to the Nets and Magic to become the 2nd/3rd banana.

[LnGrrrR]

It's the basketball Hall of Fame. Hill will be in for his college and for his Gold Medal on the 1996 Dream Team. I think the voters will look favorably on him and his NBA career because he had an elite peak that was derailed by injury, and, despite numerous setbacks, never retired, kept fighting, and has proven very valuable again.

I don't know if Hill will make it, but I really like him as a player and person, and hope he'll get in there.

[JMarkJohns]

I don't know if Hill will make it, but I really like him as a player and person, and hope he'll get in there.

He won two National Championships while at Duke (getting to a third NC game losing to Arkansas), where he had a great career, and was a significant contributor (5th leading scorer) on the Olympic squad that broke the original Dream Team's records.

It's ulative. His 7 year peak was proof of potential (finished as high as 3rd in MVP voting) and I don't think his injury will be counted against him to the point it keeps him out of the HoF.

I don't expect immediate enshrinement, but he'll get it. Honestly, I think Laettner gets in eventually to, as he was a top-10 NCAA player of all time. Maybe even top-5.

[LnGrrrR]

If Gale Sayers can get in the NFL for "peak period", I don't see why Hill can't. I'll cross my fingers.

[Blake]

Probably. But theoreticals don't have a big place in HoF discussions. It's about what a person did or didn't do.

True, and if Billups played as the 4th best person on two teams, he'd get a similar boost.

no doubt.

I'm playing that out as if I had a vote. If I did, those are theoreticals I play out.

Yes, but East Coast bias is more about media saturation. There's a ton of sports media in the East Coast (NY/BOS) moreso than Detroit/midwest. (Detroit isn't even the biggest media in that area, that would go to Chitown.)

duly noted.

Fair enough. But the Hall of Fame isn't just "Hall of Best Statistical Players". Rings, situations, teams etc etc all should be taken into account. Fairly or unfairly, DJ gets a boost from being on those iconic Boston teams.

Unfairly, imo.

But since he is in, I look at Billups career and see great similarities in stats, finals appearances and accolades.

If I'm a voter, I don't see how I can fairly leave Billups out.

I see it being a coin flip that he gets in, but if I had to guess, I think it lands on him getting in.

[Blake]

I totally blanked about those. Excellent point. Surprised that only puts him at #115.

apparently there is a very heavy emphasis on championships and offensive stats.

[JamStone]

If Gale Sayers can get in the NFL for "peak period", I don't see why Hill can't. I'll cross my fingers.

Hard to compare NFL players. The career lifespan of the average NFL runningback is about 4 years. It's rare to play 7, 8+ years in the NFL as a runningback. While in the NBA, HOF players have 10-13 year careers. Now, even longer. Grant Hill had a peak of about 6-7 years. That's pretty short for the NBA. Sayers had a short prime for even NFL standards but you have to realize the standards are different.

[LnGrrrR]

Unfairly, imo.

I won't argue that. When people think "HoF", I don't think DJ necessarily comes to mind. But there's a few other players in the HoF that are borderline as well. (Just look at all the 50/60 Celtics players in there.)

But since he is in, I look at Billups career and see great similarities in stats, finals appearances and accolades.

If I'm a voter, I don't see how I can fairly leave Billups out.

I see it being a coin flip that he gets in, but if I had to guess, I think it lands on him getting in.

I think the championships and defensive teams are enough to put DJ in, and Billups out. If DJ to me (an admitted C's homer) is a borderline HoF'er, then that leaves Chauncey on the other side. (Maybe unfairly, I won't argue that.)

[LnGrrrR]

Hard to compare NFL players. The career lifespan of the average NFL runningback is about 4 years. It's rare to play 7, 8+ years in the NFL as a runningback. While in the NBA, HOF players have 10-13 year careers. Now, even longer. Grant Hill had a peak of about 6-7 years. That's pretty short for the NBA. Sayers had a short prime for even NFL standards but you have to realize the standards are different.

I just think there's room for a few "peak" players in the Hall. Especially since Hill was a near-annual All-Star/annual All-NBA before his injury... avg'd 20 PPG, 8+ RPG, 6+ APG, plus RotY... add that all up with the "classiness" () AND his comeback story, and I think he has a decent shot.

[JMarkJohns]

Hard to compare NFL players. The career lifespan of the average NFL runningback is about 4 years. It's rare to play 7, 8+ years in the NFL as a runningback. While in the NBA, HOF players have 10-13 year careers. Now, even longer. Grant Hill had a peak of about 6-7 years. That's pretty short for the NBA. Sayers had a short prime for even NFL standards but you have to realize the standards are different.

Agreed. I don't believe Hill would get in if only predicated upon his NBA career. However, I think his peak pre-injury showed his HOF potential within that NBA career enough, that when coupled with one of the greatest collegiate careers, Olympic success, and being a beloved player and person, he'll eventually get the nod. It'll be close, but the ulative equates to HOF recognition.

I think his injury will be viewed somewhat tragically in relation to everything and the fact he keep fighting to play showed the heart many wanted to see of him on the court at times. The total career answers some of the questions in a round-about sort of way.

[Kyle Orton]

How the is Deke a sure thing? He was a role player.

[JMarkJohns]

How the is Deke a sure thing? He was a role player.

4-time Defensive POY, multiple All-NBA teams, 8-time All-Star and 2nd All-Time in blocks.