Why the Spurs won't be able to beat the Lakers in the playoffs

[John Basedow]

Sounds like the OP is betting the ranch on Bynum, who is already complaining about his pain. Saying Tim is "helpless" against Bynum is kind of tipping your hat that you don't want a serious discussion about basketball. Tim isn't as quick on his feet as years gone by, but he's got leadership, bbIQ, character, and an offensive game that Bynum will never have. Bynum is long, but isn't very durable for being a kid.

Duncan:

First game: 29 minutes, 1-7 fgs, 2pts, 4 rebs, 0 blks
Second game: 33 minutes, 3-12 fgs, 8pts, 8 rebs, 2 blks
Third game: 23 minutes, 1-7 fgs, 2pts, 7 rebs, 0 blks

Bynum:

First game: 22 min, 4-4 fgs, 10pts, 7 rebs, 1 blk
Second game: 29 min, 4-7 fgs, 10pts, 10 rebs, 3 blks
Third game: 27 min, 2-2 fgs, 4 pts, 17 rebs, 3 blks


Tim has played more minutes and has done absolutely jack against Andrew Bynum. Duncan is averaging 4 pts, 6 rebs, <1 blk, and shooting an absolutely abominable percentage against Baby Drew. Helpless.


What was that about serious discussion?

[John Basedow]

Lakers path would include, portland, Dallas

Spurs have a less difficult path of Memphis, OKC. that alone is worth one game in the WCF

crofl on so many levels.

-Portland is going to finish 5th
-OKC is going to beast you on the boards with Perkins and Ibaka BOTH in the paint.
-lol thinking Memphis is going to be easy...they just damn near took 2 games from you without their best player on the court.

[mjnxn]

The OP is correct. Single coverage allows their players to easily rotate to our 3 pt shooters. Granted TP and Manu can penetrate, Bynum will be guarding the paint making their drives and shots extra difficult. On paper, the Lakers dominate this matchup both inside and out.

For the Spurs to have a chance, the following criteria must be met:

1. LA must be exhausted by the time game 1 comes around, similar to 08 when the Spurs had that grueling 7 game series with New Orleans.
2. Not only must they defend home court, they need to at least blow the Lakers out in one of those games to put some doubt in their minds
3. Tim Duncan needs to shift into a higher gear and become a legitimate post presence both offensively and defensively
4. The Spurs themselves cannot be fatigued either.
5. RJ needs to significantly contribute to the offense so Kobe expends energy guarding him

I don't really see 3 and 4 happening though. It's painful to watch how slow TD is these days, and I doubt he can get guys like Bynum into foul trouble.

[John Basedow]

The OP is correct. Single coverage allows their players to easily rotate to our 3 pt shooters. Granted TP and Manu can penetrate, Bynum will be guarding the paint making their drives and shots extra difficult. On paper, the Lakers dominate this matchup both inside and out.

For the Spurs to have a chance, the following criteria must be met:

1. LA must be exhausted by the time game 1 comes around, similar to 08 when the Spurs had that grueling 7 game series with New Orleans.
2. Not only must they defend home court, they need to at least blow the Lakers out in one of those games to put some doubt in their minds
3. Tim Duncan needs to shift into a higher gear and become a legitimate post presence both offensively and defensively
4. The Spurs themselves cannot be fatigued either.
5. RJ needs to significantly contribute to the offense so Kobe expends energy guarding him

I don't really see 3 and 4 happening though. It's painful to watch how slow TD is these days, and I doubt he can get guys like Bynum into foul trouble.

Good points all around.

The problem with Duncan is that referees--much like fans-- are very fickle when it comes to superstars and the type of treatment they should get. If they sense a player is falling off they simply won't give him the calls he used to get. Shaq is a prime example of this. What used to be a foul on the opponent now translates to offensive foul, 3 seconds, or traveling.

Tim hasn't shown that dominance around the basket and he no longer demands double coverage, thus he won't get calls.

[mjnxn]

If anything, Duncan needs to guard the more finesse Gasol as opposed to Bynum. Duncan is stronger, has the length, and isn't terribly slow compared to the Spaniard. I don't know who we'd put on Bynum, but it seems that Blair (who at least has the strength) would be the most optimal. Granted Bynum can score easily on him, that means less touches for the other guys and a less-focused Bynum on the defensive end.

[crc21209]

This is not another Spurs bashing thread, just a realistic preview of what the playoffs will bring should this match-up arise.

Frontcourt problems aside, the Spurs don't have anybody who demands a double team anymore. Manu can be guarded by Kobe or Ron 1-on-1, RJ is largely ineffective, and Tim is helpless against Bynum.

Tony Parker is the only Spur w/ a significant matchup advantage, but even that doesn't look good b/c he's not that great of an outside shooter. He will drive to the basket, but like we've seen from every Lakers-Spurs series, the paint will either be packed or he'll have to contend with our bigs. Notice how quickly LA was able to close out on your shooters last meeting? That's b/c hardly anybody had to leave their man for help D.

Tony Parker is the key for any chance the Spurs have. He needs to have a great shooting series and be quick with his passes. Otherwise this will be over fast.

Discuss.

Sounds like a troll just bashing if you ask me....

[crc21209]

crofl on so many levels.

-Portland is going to finish 5th
-OKC is going to beast you on the boards with Perkins and Ibaka BOTH in the paint.
-lol thinking Memphis is going to be easy...they just damn near took 2 games from you without their best player on the court.

Theres no guarantee that Perkins will be even fully healthy to compete in a 7-game series. Sure, he might go out there and play, but he wont be the same...

[John Basedow]

If anything, Duncan needs to guard the more finesse Gasol as opposed to Bynum. Duncan is stronger, has the length, and isn't terribly slow compared to the Spaniard. I don't know who we'd put on Bynum, but it seems that Blair (who at least has the strength) would be the most optimal. Granted Bynum can score easily on him, that means less touches for the other guys and a less-focused Bynum on the defensive end.

That's not a terrible idea, but you gotta weigh the pros and cons of such moves. Putting a 6-7 PF against a 7-1 C could have disastrous results. For one, DJB would most likely be in foul trouble before the 8 minute mark of the 1st Q...but if they chose to double him then that could work out in their favor. Bynum's biggest weakness is passing out of the DT--he's still very raw in that part of his game.

Secondly, Tim is stronger and able to body up Gasol, but Pau moves without the ball almost more than any other legit 4, and he's got a great midrange J too. Duncan would be gassed by the 4th quarter if he had to man-up Gasol, imho.

[John Basedow]

Sounds like a troll just bashing if you ask me....

tbh scro your services are sorely needed in the NBA Forum. MiamiHeat and HH37 have gone AWOL recently, and the Heat have now called upon their 3rd fellator to save the day. You're the Speaker of the Heat House, so to speak...do your duty

[George Gervin's Afro]

so now the laker trolls come out with threads like this one AFTER Sunday's game... I wonder where the threads were prior to Sunday... can someone find them?

[John Basedow]

so now the laker trolls come out with threads like this one AFTER Sunday's game... I wonder where the threads were prior to Sunday... can someone find them?

You are more than welcome to contradict the veracity of my OP if you have some legitimate points to bring to the table.

[roycrikside]

This is not another Spurs bashing thread, just a realistic preview of what the playoffs will bring should this match-up arise.

Frontcourt problems aside, the Spurs don't have anybody who demands a double team anymore. Manu can be guarded by Kobe or Ron 1-on-1, RJ is largely ineffective, and Tim is helpless against Bynum.

Tony Parker is the only Spur w/ a significant matchup advantage, but even that doesn't look good b/c he's not that great of an outside shooter. He will drive to the basket, but like we've seen from every Lakers-Spurs series, the paint will either be packed or he'll have to contend with our bigs. Notice how quickly LA was able to close out on your shooters last meeting? That's b/c hardly anybody had to leave their man for help D.


Tony Parker is the key for any chance the Spurs have. He needs to have a great shooting series and be quick with his passes. Otherwise this will be over fast.

Discuss.

You could very well be right that the Lakers will beat the Spurs, however your analysis is flawed on several fronts:

1. Manu has shown in the past that he can score on Artest and Kobe, especially the former. A couple bad games doesn't change their history. Ginobili will be more aggressive when he needs to be. Also, he'll have more energy in the offensive end because I strongly suspect that in the playoffs Pop will have him on Artest a lot of the time to spare his legs on defense. Right now Pop has him on Kobe, but Pop does that because he doesn't want to show all his cards. I think you'll see a lot of RJ or Hill on Kobe.

2. If you think Duncan will struggle dramatically against the Lakers in the playoffs as he has in the regular season, you're delusional. He'll go right at them and he knows how to draw fouls, especially on Bynum.

3. You keep claiming the Spurs have terrible defense, however that hasn't been the case in any of the three match-ups. If you actually watched the last game, you'd have realized the Lakers made an uncharacteristic amount of contested threes and long twos. They took the shots we wanted them to take and the same shots they missed consistently in the first two meetings. It's not like it was a lay-up line out there by any means. The Spurs have played at least 25 worse defensive games this season than last Sunday. Lakers just had a hot night, that's all it was.

Also, it took Kobe 25 shots to score 26 points and that was by far his "best" performance against the Spurs this year. In all three meetings we've kept him away from the free throw line by and large and turned him into a jump shooter. If we're gonna lose to LA it will be because of great series by Gasol and Bynum, not Kobe.

[roycrikside]

Also, I don't understand where your bizarre fascination with double teams comes from. The Spurs don't double anyone on the Lakers either unless they're trapped and it can catch them by surprise. For the most part they play LA straight up, like anyone else.

[George Gervin's Afro]

You are more than welcome to contradict the veracity of my OP if you have some legitimate points to bring to the table.

you are more than welcome to show us your crap prior to Sunday's game..if not, you are a bandwagon fan who only shows up when your team wins. No need to answer a bandwagon post

[George Gervin's Afro]

You could very well be right that the Lakers will beat the Spurs, however your analysis is flawed on several fronts:

1. Manu has shown in the past that he can score on Artest and Kobe, especially the former. A couple bad games doesn't change their history. Ginobili will be more aggressive when he needs to be. Also, he'll have more energy in the offensive end because I strongly suspect that in the playoffs Pop will have him on Artest a lot of the time to spare his legs on defense. Right now Pop has him on Kobe, but Pop does that because he doesn't want to show all his cards. I think you'll see a lot of RJ or Hill on Kobe.

2. If you think Duncan will struggle dramatically against the Lakers in the playoffs as he has in the regular season, you're delusional. He'll go right at them and he knows how to draw fouls, especially on Bynum.

3. You keep claiming the Spurs have terrible defense, however that hasn't been the case in any of the three match-ups. If you actually watched the last game, you'd have realized the Lakers made an uncharacteristic amount of contested threes and long twos. They took the shots we wanted them to take and the same shots they missed consistently in the first two meetings. It's not like it was a lay-up line out there by any means. The Spurs have played at least 25 worse defensive games this season than last Sunday. Lakers just had a hot night, that's all it was.

Also, it took Kobe 25 shots to score 26 points and that was by far his "best" performance against the Spurs this year. In all three meetings we've kept him away from the free throw line by and large and turned him into a jump shooter. If we're gonna lose to LA it will be because of great series by Gasol and Bynum, not Kobe.

what? The lakers won't shoot 65% all of the time?

[mjnxn]

That's not a terrible idea, but you gotta weigh the pros and cons of such moves. Putting a 6-7 PF against a 7-1 C could have disastrous results. For one, DJB would most likely be in foul trouble before the 8 minute mark of the 1st Q...but if they chose to double him then that could work out in their favor. Bynum's biggest weakness is passing out of the DT--he's still very raw in that part of his game.

Secondly, Tim is stronger and able to body up Gasol, but Pau moves without the ball almost more than any other legit 4, and he's got a great midrange J too. Duncan would be gassed by the 4th quarter if he had to man-up Gasol, imho.

You use single coverage blair/splitter on bynum and hope to avoid the fouls. If anything, it can put LA out of rhythm if they are running their offense through Bynum without Kobe & Gasol running their very potent two-man game. As I said, LA has too many matchups in their favor so it's inevitable that you HAVE to concede one matchup. This can be successful, as the Spurs have won before letting some guys go off while shutting down others (Dirk last year).

Dice and Bonner will be huge in this series having to guard gasol and spare tim some minutes. The best thing to hope for is Gasol taking those mid-range shots and not getting anything easy at the rim. Difficult? Yes. Impossible? No.

[20beastie45]

I hate to say it but John Basedow is somewhat correct. I do believe that the spurs will win the WCF if we shall meet, but it's going to take an above average Rebounding and Scoring game from Duncan. Kobe can score fifty for all i care...If I were Phil I'd feed Gasol and Bynum from the get go.

X factor is Dice
Defensive Rebounding needs to be our focus.

[mingus]

Duncan:

First game: 29 minutes, 1-7 fgs, 2pts, 4 rebs, 0 blks
Second game: 33 minutes, 3-12 fgs, 8pts, 8 rebs, 2 blks
Third game: 23 minutes, 1-7 fgs, 2pts, 7 rebs, 0 blks

Bynum:

First game: 22 min, 4-4 fgs, 10pts, 7 rebs, 1 blk
Second game: 29 min, 4-7 fgs, 10pts, 10 rebs, 3 blks
Third game: 27 min, 2-2 fgs, 4 pts, 17 rebs, 3 blks


Tim has played more minutes and has done absolutely jack against Andrew Bynum. Duncan is averaging 4 pts, 6 rebs, <1 blk, and shooting an absolutely abominable percentage against Baby Drew. Helpless.


What was that about serious discussion?

nice one-sided argument

want to bring up tim's career average playoff numbers?

[George Gervin's Afro]

nice one-sided argument

want to bring up tim's career average playoff numbers?

Well he thinks the reg season is the same as the post season..

[spurs10]

Duncan:

First game: 29 minutes, 1-7 fgs, 2pts, 4 rebs, 0 blks
Second game: 33 minutes, 3-12 fgs, 8pts, 8 rebs, 2 blks
Third game: 23 minutes, 1-7 fgs, 2pts, 7 rebs, 0 blks

Bynum:

First game: 22 min, 4-4 fgs, 10pts, 7 rebs, 1 blk
Second game: 29 min, 4-7 fgs, 10pts, 10 rebs, 3 blks
Third game: 27 min, 2-2 fgs, 4 pts, 17 rebs, 3 blks


Tim has played more minutes and has done absolutely jack against Andrew Bynum. Duncan is averaging 4 pts, 6 rebs, <1 blk, and shooting an absolutely abominable percentage against Baby Drew. Helpless.


What was that about serious discussion?

Oh so the first two games do matter. Tim's stats were not up to par in the 1st two games and we still won. One being a blowout and the other where we got sloppy in the end and had to play that horrible defense of ours to get every board we needed for the win. Calling Tim "helpless" in games where we won is over the top, don't ya think? His shots werent falling so he played great d and everyone else scored on you. And, a guy with your avatar who use the word "brah" frequently is obviously too big of a bag to be taken horribly serious ever. It's 2and 1, we got the tie-breaker and hca and that's all.

[2Cleva]

Career playoff numbers mean little - for SA or LA.

No need to argue this on either side. It will be decided on the court. But the best playoff indicator is matchups and which team can impose their will on the other.

SA will be undersized so they will rely on Parker and Ginobili attacking the basket and kickout 3s to win with their bigs getting what they can. That's how they've had success all season.

Serious doubts that plan works against the Lakers but hey "everyone has a plan until they get hit".

[spurs10]

Career playoff numbers mean little - for SA or LA.

No need to argue this on either side. It will be decided on the court. But the best playoff indicator is matchups and which team can impose their will on the other.

SA will be undersized so they will rely on Parker and Ginobili attacking the basket and kickout 3s to win with their bigs getting what they can. That's how they've had success all season.

Serious doubts that plan works against the Lakers but hey "everyone has a plan until they get hit".

Agreed, especially "everyone has a plan until they get hit in the face."
Ain't it the truth!

[spurs10]

2Cleva while I agree with this getting "decided on the court" and whoever imposes their will coming out on top. I think we have had success in other areas than Manu and TP attacking and the kick out 3. Our most important wins have had us getting some stops, so improving our defense is indeed going to be our key... we'll see very soon.

[roycrikside]

There's only thing that we as Spurs fans can be positive of:

If we win the le then the fans of the loser of the LA/Dal 2nd round series will claim our championship deserves an * because we "didn't have to go through them."

You know those threads will be out in full force by the trolls.

[2Cleva]

I think we have had success in other areas than Manu and TP attacking and the kick out 3. Our most important wins have had us getting some stops, so improving our defense is indeed going to be our key...

There has been a lot of talk by NBA media who like the Spurs but they keep saying how other top NBA players view them (Mike Wilbon being most vocal). SA isn't built on D like in the past (no one denies that) and are almost like the Suns in attack style.

SA will get stops against many teams but the playoffs are about keying in on strengths/weaknesses. In a playoff setting, SA needs LA to beat themselves for the most part because they don't have anyone who can defend LA's top 4 offensive weapons.

Kobe - Hill is the only one with a shot. His quickness would hamper Kobe's dribble penetration but Kobe would just go to the post.

Pau/Bynum - Duncan doesn't have it anymore and Blair is just too small. I said at the beginning of the season - Splitter was the wild card. But he hasn't provided any of the impact I was worried he would. Pretty much a stiff in NBA terms as a rookie. He can get better in the future but I've seen nothing to indicate this year.

LO - The current rotation has Bonner and Novak matched up against him and that won't get it done.

I guess hopes can be pinned on McDyess. He has the toughness and guile but Pau/Bynum really can overpower or just play above him and he's too slow for LO.

SA has the heart and mind of champions - just not the bodies.