To me, it's all dependent on luck in match-ups. Spurs are weak in paint defense and would be fodder for teams like LA and MEM with offensive, scoring bigs. Not so against DAL, MIA, CHI. Remember it was just '10 that they beat DAL because (even though Dirk is a PF he doesn't really score in the post), SA's backcourt (TP, Manu, Hill) was better than theirs + Dice did a fantastic job on Dirk. And we can always hope for a choke from young teams like OKC, CHI or even Lebron.
It would take a lot of luck and injuries to opposing key players for Spurs to win it all. They don't have enough reliable veterans and Leonard and JA cannot be depended on in crunch time. We already know what's going to happen with Bonner and RJ then.
Yesterday was a fluke - MEM is not going to commit 24 (?) turnovers in a game & those 3pters are going to be taken away in the playoffs rendering RJ and Bonner useless.