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This was going to be my list. OKC and the Lakers are interchangable for me.
No Phil, no Odom, no Fisher...just a few slow-footed, tall front line players.
Ain't skeered.
I don't agree with the playoffs completely being about stars either. The Lakers don't get big contributions from players like Odom and Fisher and they don't win anything. Phil Jackson is as valuable as a star player to that team.
This was going to be my list. OKC and the Lakers are interchangable for me.
I would much rather play the thunder than the grizzlies or the mavs for one simple reason: the thunder simply cannot contain penetration.
In addition, the thunder's lack of a (low-post) post presence really plays right into our hands. Yes, they have offensive firepower, but so do we.
My rankings:
1. lakers
2. grizzlies
3. mavericks
4. thunder
This. Plus the starters are simply not going to play 48 mins... and det bench is really, really bad.
1. I shouldn't have posted this during a winning streak. Spurs fans in general are massively overconfident right now. The Spurs have good pieces but there's a LONG way to go before they should be considered the overwhelming favorites most Spurs fans apparently see them as.
2. How can a Spurs fan scoff the Lakers in one breathe and then profess their fear of the Grizzlies in their next breath? Gasol + Bynum >>>>>>>>> Gasol + Randolph. Kobe + Barnes + Artest >>>>>>> Gay + Allen + Mayo. Sessions + Blake = Conley + nothing. It doesn't even make sense. The Lakers are like an upgraded version of the Grizzlies.
3. Spurs fans seem to be underestimating every team outside of Memphis and vastly overrating the Grizzlies. Yeah, the Grizzlies beat the Spurs last season but the 2011 Spurs would have lost to a lot of teams. Ginobili had one arm, Duncan never recovered from his sprained ankle, Parker was playing at like 70% and the role players weren't very good. The Grizzlies, Blazers, Nuggets, Thunder and Lakers would have all beaten the Spurs in the first round. Let's not overrate the Grizzlies just because they were the ones lucky enough to catch a freefalling Spurs squad.
4. What's ironic is the 2011 Spurs were a great match against the Mavs. McDyess was very good against Nowitzki. Hill was very good against Terry. Neither Marion nor Stevenson ever had success defending Ginobili. The Mavs didn't have anyone to defend Parker. I wouldv'e liked S.A.'s chances against Dallas, tbh. Unfortunately, losing McDyess and Hill changes the dynamics of the matchup.
5. The most difficult playoff matchups in the East are:
1. Miami Heat
2. Chicago Bulls
Everyone else
Reputationally I completely agree with you, but I've watched the Lakers a number of times this season, and they look completely isolated on defense. There is not nearly as much communication as there was in the Phil Jackson era, to say nothing of the fact that they're already experiencing chemistry problems now that Fish has left town.
Again in the past that might have been true... but if this guy can do it...Manu and Tony historically thrive against the smaller frontlines. Getting into the lane and finishes against Bynum and Gasol would not be easy.
I guess we'll figure out which captain jack we get if it comes to that. I'm betting he'll be extra motivated since he just returned to the Spurs, though. Maybe even draw some time on Kobe, who knows.And ever since that game Jack hit eight three-pointers against the Lakers in 2003 in the regular season, he's never done much of anything against Kobe and L.A.
All depends on his health. I don't see a 90%+ Manu being stopped by anyone wearing purple and gold.Even this corpse version of Artest is one of the best Manu stoppers in the league. Last season, Manu averaged nine points on 28% shooting in three games against the Lakers.
Traditionally that's the case, but the Mavs were pretty deep last year. Offensively I still mostly agree with that conclusion, but I think being able to put 3-4 guys on Kobe this year (Leonard, Green, Jax, Manu) could give us a lot of defensive versatility. Also don't forget that Kobe is averaging 38+ minutes this year and it looks like it's starting to take a toll on his body and his shooting %. I just feel like there's so much talent on this team that it could override a lot of the prevailing logic in past playoff runs. Even Tim is getting a little hyped up:Again, depth hardly matters in the playoffs. The postseason is a battle of the stars. I can't even remember a playoff series the Spurs won in the past due in large part to a depth advantage.
When general manager R.C. Buford traded his starting small forward to bring back a prodigal son, signed a promising backup point guard and claimed a slick-passing big man from the free-agent pile all in an eight-day whirlwind it sent an unmistakable signal to his locker room.
Were trying to win this thing, team captain Tim Duncan said.
I can't see Mike Brown preparing his players for the playoffs as well as PJax did. Also, I wouldn't be shocked if Kobe implodes in the playoffs. Though there is a slight, slight chance he comes to his senses once the regular season ends and he stops worrying about pure scoring and focuses on winning...but that seems like a real long shot at this point.
Not afraid of the Grizz either tbh. The Spurs are completely different team on the perimeter and can put a quality defensive 7 footer on the floor at all times. If they have a healthy Manu I don't see them dropping more than 2 games against them.
And agreed. Everyone is overconfident right now. If the team keeps playing this well, we have reason to be, but that means almost nothing come playoff time.
For one reason: No one on the Grizzlies has a usage rate that's approaching 6,000. Exaggeration of course, but Kobe being Kobe is the Lakers biggest weakness. It throws them out of their offense and forces their bigs into passive play. I still don't think at his age Kobe has learned to be patient and trusting with his teammates. If he shifts gears and starts deferring, then by all means the Lakers will be a juggernaut. Until that happens, they're still the Kobe's and still eminently beatable as long as Mike Brown is calling timeouts to set up ISOs for Kobe.
I don't fear the Grizzlies, I just think they play good hard team ball and would be a tough 6 or 7 game out for the Spurs. Probably the same goes for LAL unless they implode again.
Last edited by Cry Havoc; 03-26-2012 at 06:00 PM.
OKC is all flam and no substance. Their entire team revolves around three players on offense and two players on defense. The Spurs are golden behind the arc while OKC is around mid pack defending the three. If OKC cheats, the paint opens up. This style of play is similiar to the nuggets and Suns of the past where they try to wear down the opponent and steal the win at the end. As long as the Spurs don't go in a scoring drought, they should have no problem keeping up with the Thunder.
Edit: I also don't think the Thunder ae a very good half-court offense. And that's what the playoffs are all about.
I like the Spurs chances if they use Tiago more and less Bonner/Blair.
I don't enjoy defending the Lakers but last year they were 5th in field goal percentage defense at 43.7%. This year, they're 5th in field goal percentage defense at 42.7%. I don't see much slippage, tbh.
Plus, we Spurs fans have nary room to talk considering how horrible our team's defense has been this year. Fifth at the league at 42.7% looks a whole lot better than 19th in the league at 45.2%.
I really hate these threads.
I already can tell it's going to be a mega thread and it's going to be a lot of exchanging between parties and not going anywhere. It's the basketball version of a religion thread.
I would like to see this path: Utah, Dallas, Lakers, Heat
Well said, although you could argue that if the Spurs had been graced with health the entire year the defense would likely be top 10, if not top 5. I think over a 7 game series where Duncan & co. are going to play every night, they are more than capable of playing suffocating defense for a full 48.
I'm really happy that the Spurs look like they should have the horses to run with anyone they happen to meet. Nice not to have to hope certain teams are banged up or get upset in order to see a path to the le.
Having big gigantic guys with long arms standing in the painted area makes up for a mul ude of sins.
It will still give us a measure of how well the Spurs can match up. Last year Memphis gave the SPurs trouble all season, with two close games at home and two blowouts in Memphis. If we'd of paid attention to that we would've known the Spurs were in trouble, especially with Manu hurt.
This.
That's all I've said
That but the spurs numbers are too heavily weighted with RJ and drek games.
I would like to see from Jackson trade on at the end of the year how it goes.
The lakers front line is tough, but if Tim can be smart and get whoever he's being guarded by in foul trouble, you force them to go to the bench.
Outside of Kobe and their towers, who am I supposed to be scared of? Arrest? Blake?
Their the 2003 Lakers all over again.
1. Lakers - they have a core that's won championships. They have Bynum and Gasol who are skilled post scorers and bigger than everyone on the Spurs. "The (so-called) best coach in the league" still does not play TD and Splitter together and any other big man on the Spurs will get killed by Bynum/Gasol who will be playing 40+/38+ minutes (compared to the paltry 20 mins Pop allows Splitter).
Kobe (if he knows where the big mismatch is, will take a back seat and pound it into the post) - since it won't be the Finals and the Finals MVP won't be on the line, my guess is that this is what he'll do). Since Sessions joined the team, Kobe is shooting less and incorporating Sessions at a fast pace (unlike Pop who is playing around with so many combinations, no combination will be comfortable with each other when crunch time comes).
2. MEM - they will be confident against the Spurs having beaten them last year. They are well balanced and play great defense. The big men situation will be the same as with LA.
3. DAL - always plays well against Spurs - it's like sometimes they can't miss. Odom didn't play the last game. They have championship experience and good coaching. Dirk can get hot.
4. OKC - the best matchup for Spurs - relatively young and inexperienced, questionable coaching, no post scoring so Spurs' weakness (post defense) won't be exploited.
I'm praying LA(3)/MEM(6) in the first round with winner playing OKC (OKC would have to drop to #2) and that OKC comes through to play Spurs and for CHI in the Finals. Spurs cannot beat MIA unless Lebron chokes/Wade get injured.
How the would the winner of the lakers Memphis series play OKC?
The Spurs' defensive numbers can go out the window as of about a week ago, I agree. But the Lakers' D is what it is due to those big guys inside.
To your point, Duncan's looked more dominant in the post the last month than he has in at least four years. I'd put this Duncan up against all the Lakers' bigs and expect them to be in foul trouble.
Long story short, Spurs fans are over confident right now and have forgotten this team has not won a 2nd round game in a long, long time. People seem to have forgotten that this team is injury prone as well. Yes, the new guys look solid, but there is still ups and downs and not a lot of time to gel or practice.
Fact of the matter is that regardless of whether or not you like a match up or don't, that the gap between the top 5 teams is really nil. It will be about who's healthy and playing well. Match ups will be important, but from a talent and roster holes perspective most teams in the West are pretty even.
Teams with size are bad for the Spurs (Mavs/Lakers/MEM/OKC), Teams with below average talent are good for the Spurs (Hou, UTA, Den, Suns), but in either scenario there are virtually no series where the Spurs are heavily favored or dogs.
I rank the worst match ups as follows, but I say this with the caveat that the Spurs can beat all of these teams if healthy:
1)LA
2)OKC - DAL
3)MEM
The rest would be much more desirable. The absolute best case is the Spurs draw Houston/PHX/UTA/DEN in the first round while LA/DAL end up playing each other in the first as well. In that scenario, they can reach the WCF.
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