timvp's Eleventh Annual Spurs NBA Draft Cheat Sheet

[timvp]

Tbh, I think an unathletic Euro point guard has a better chance of panning out than a big with size at the end of the second round. There hasn't been one to pan out in years.

That said, James is a unique situation. His age could legitimately cost him 20+ spots in the draft. If the Spurs think his age is the only thing keeping him from being a borderline first round draft pick, they should draft him at 59.

Drafting a 27-year-old would definitely qualify for an out of the box selection.

[Bruno]

Spurs pick is so late that the mindset isn't exactly the same than with the other picks.

When a team pass on a player they like with their pick, the likely consequence is that he is lost because another team will draft him. Spurs pick is #59. Only one player will be drafted after it. If Spurs pass on a player they like, the likely consequence is that he will hit free agency and Spurs will have another chance to get him for summer league/training camp.

It's another factor that will push even more Spurs to take the draft and stash road.

[Russ]

In a perfect world, it'd be great to get a young bigman with size who can develop into a defensive ace. The problem is that bigs that fit that profile who last to even the middle of the second round never pan out. Seriously, you'd have to go back years to find even one example of such a bigman taken in that part of the draft making it. History tells us any domestic big with prototypical size and defensive skill is long gone by the end of the second round.

I wouldn't mind trading up for a bigman but it'd take a full blown miracle for a useful domestic big with size to fall to 59.

Bingo!

This gets lost in the lead-up to every draft. Just go back and look at all those players we yearned so desperately for after about the 10th pick or so. Even we have forgotten them.

With bigs, this principle is magnified by about tenfold.

Bigs have every advantage in having their talents oh-so-gently coaxed from them from the time they're about 12 or so. It is simply impossible that they are unknowns by the time their NBA draft day arrives.

Bottom line, in this day and age of AAU, computers, stringers, and technology saavy scouting departments, there are no domestic "sleeper" bigs that you can somehow "uncover" in the 2d round. They're picked over more than the bargain bin at the Walmart next to a trailer park. (Which is where most of these high-upside bigs will be working soon.)

It's just a nice early summer diversion.

[Solid D]

Nice due-diligence timvp, as usual!

I don't have any expectations for the Spurs in this draft. Off-season moves come in many packages, as we know. I was extremely impressed with the Spurs' performance this season. Their offense was as prolific as I've seen it for many, many years. Point Diff was the best since 2006-07. They had textbook ball movement with a high apg avg. Minutes management was even better than usual by the coaching staff. Their player development regimen is one of the best in the league.

My wish list for the off-season boils down to 2 things.
1. Improve interior defense
Face it, the Spurs weren't within a city block of the defensive abilities of the other 3 conference finalists.

2. Add one or two players who can create their own shots.

The 2 teams in the finals were 2 of the better teams at creating their own scoring opportunities, whether from the floor or at getting to the FT line. OKC had the worst assists/game avg. in the NBA and Miami was the 10th worst.

Improving in each of those 2 area by just one player would make me very happy.

[DPG21920]

Solid D, I agree somewhat, but when you look at the laundry list of problems, interior d did not seem to be the biggest issue (at least vs OKC). That might be an issue as Tim can't play a lot of minutes, but I am of the belief that Tiago can really help. I would not mind a defensive, athletic big, but I think number 2 on your list is really number 1 IMO unless they Spurs can move into the lottery.

[spursince#99]

if he slides, we better draft Terrence Ross.

[Solid D]

Solid D, I agree somewhat, but when you look at the laundry list of problems, interior d did not seem to be the biggest issue (at least vs OKC). That might be an issue as Tim can't play a lot of minutes, but I am of the belief that Tiago can really help. I would not mind a defensive, athletic big, but I think number 2 on your list is really number 1 IMO unless they Spurs can move into the lottery.

Allowing .474 shooting against the Thunder or any team directly equates to a lack of interior defensive strength. The Thunder had twice as many blocked shots and they got stops. The Spurs did not get stops. It was and has been a problem.

Glad we agree about the other need.

[DPG21920]

The Thunder shot 50+% from mid range, their shots at the rim, in the interior, were actually surprisingly low.

[baseline bum]

So LJ has this guy going #1?

[DPG21920]

Defensively, the Spurs weren’t all bad. In fact, their interior defense was fantastic. At the rim, the Thunder connected on only 57.3% of their shots. Considering that they typically shoot 65.6% from that distance, Duncan and the rest of the team did a wonderful job of shutting down the paint.

Extending the area of focus out further, San Antonio’s defense was very good within fifteen feet of the basket. From fifteen feet and in, the Thunder shot only 48.5%. During the regular season, they shot 56.6% from that range. That's a colossal drop of 16.7%. Thus, even though the Thunder have breathtaking athletes, it's difficult to see the athleticism advantage in the stats alone.

The Thunder made 52.7% of their two-pointers outside of 15 feet for the series. Normally, OKC shoots 42.6% from that range. Normally, the Spurs allow their opponents to shoot 40.6% from that range. But, unfortunately for the Spurs, the Thunder’s long-range shooting was abnormally deadly this series. Yes, San Antonio gave up some perimeter looks by design, but 52.7% isn’t sustainable by any team (or any player, for that matter) over the long haul. That said, give the Thunder credit. Their players stepped up and knocked down the most inefficient shots in the game of basketball at a shockingly efficient rate.

[Solid D]

http://espn.go.com/blog/statsinfo/ca...-antonio-spurs

Thunder Inside 5 Feet
Western Conference Finals
Game FG pct Result

Game 1 43.5 Loss

Game 2 46.2 Loss

Game 3 57.6 Win

Game 4 67.9 Win

Game 5 63.2 Win

Game 6 60.0 Win

[DPG21920]

So for the series, they shot 57%, when they normally shot 66% and the league average was 63%.

[DPG21920]

They shot below their average and league average in 5 of the 6 games.

This is not to argue - I agree defense, in particular a defensive big, would be great. All I am saying is that I think young, athletic perimeter players with significant upside or more critical for the now and are also good for the future.

I don't see a lot of bigs with enough upside to really be happy about.

[Solid D]

Look at the percentages for OKC's 2 losses. The Spurs didn't get stops. Strong interior defenders actually helps strengthen perimeter defense. But I'm sure you know that.

[DPG21920]

I do know that, but I don't think that is the most pressing issue due to the Spurs current needs and style of play. Spurs got stops *enough* in that area to win if their improvement in mid range defense/ability to score and create improved. If we can get an impact defenisve big, ok, but I think the odds of that are slim this draft (so are getting any impact player), but outside of Davis (who's going number one), I think an elite potential guard is more valuable is all.

[Ice009]

Allowing .474 shooting against the Thunder or any team directly equates to a lack of interior defensive strength. The Thunder had twice as many blocked shots and they got stops. The Spurs did not get stops. It was and has been a problem.

Glad we agree about the other need.

I also think the Spurs interior defense wasn't that good. If the Spurs had a strong interior defense then the perimeter players could have been more aggressive defensively. I think that's why they gave up the open long mid range jumpers because the interior defense wasn't strong, so they had to kind of pack the lane a bit to help out the bigs.

[Salty]

I do know that, but I don't think that is the most pressing issue due to the Spurs current needs and style of play. Spurs got stops *enough* in that area to win if their improvement in mid range defense/ability to score and create improved. If we can get an impact defenisve big, ok, but I think the odds of that are slim this draft (so are getting any impact player), but outside of Davis (who's going number one), I think an elite potential guard is more valuable is all.

I disagree. Mid-range defense shouldn't be as big of a concern as perimeter D or interior D because it's the most inefficient shot in basketball. For the most part, the only wide-open mid-range jumpshots the Spurs allow are from bigs who don't usually shoot from that range with consistency (I'm looking at you, Serge Ibaka). Parker is our creator and playmaker on offense, and considering that we had the best offense in the league this year (and the best 3-point offense if I'm not mistaken), another guard wouldn't be as beneficial as a serviceable big would be.

Over the last 4 games of the WCF, OKC's interior FG% improved dramatically, and like Memphis last year, they got a lot of easy buckets near the rim off of second shot opportunities.

Imo the Spurs would be best suited by finding a big who can clean up the glass. Our interior defense improved dramatically with the additions of Splitter and Diaw this year, but neither is an especially great rebounder. Blair used to be a beast on the boards, but that ability dissapeared after last year.

[DJ Mbenga]

tu holliway looks like a buy low spurs candidate.

[polandprzem]

LJ impressive

[polandprzem]

btw.

No guy with no 58 gonna help our chances to win all

[Sean Cagney]

btw.

No guy with no 58 gonna help our chances to win all

Unless he is MANU! BUT even he did not come over right away so.........


He was 57th right? What A GEM WE FOUND there, damn.

[polandprzem]

Manu produces few years after he was drafted

And in Spurs system it's impossible to make an impact in the 1st year.



Anyway draft does not mean anything now unless spurs gonna make a move and make a trade to go up

[objective]

DX has a great podcast up that's all euro-centric and covers a lot of the end of draft flyer prospects

http://www.draftexpress.com/article/...ventures-3999/

[TDMVPDPOY]

wouldnt mind the cavs pick late in the first round or both of there early 2 2nd round picks....

rockets just traded dalembert and 14 for 12 and scrubs from the bucks

[ace3g]

Adrian Wojnarowski ‏@WojYahooNBA

Spurs are shopping forward DeJuan Blair, league sources tell Y! Spurs have Euro picks they could bring over next season, need roster space.