Nate Silver Nov. 4th Update: Obama has 85.1% chance of winning

[DUNCANownsKOBE]

Morris.
"Previously, in discussing the race with Bill O’Reilly of Fox News, Morris said Romney will win the election by 5 to 10 points in the popular vote and would carry more than 300 electoral votes.

"It will be the biggest surprise in recent American political history," Morris told van Susteren. "It will rekindle the whole question on why the media played this race as a nailbiter where in fact Romney’s going to win by quite a bit."

Updated election forecasting model still points to Romney win, University of Colorado study says
October 4, 2012 •
Social Sciences

An update to an election forecasting model announced by two University of Colorado professors in August continues to project that Mitt Romney will win the 2012 presidential election.

According to their updated analysis, Romney is projected to receive 330 of the total 538 Electoral College votes. President Barack Obama is expected to receive 208 votes -- down five votes from their initial prediction -- and short of the 270 needed to win.

“Sometime after the crows on the morning of Nov. 7, Mitt Romney will be declared America’s 45th president,” Rove wrote on Wednesday night. “Let’s call it 51%-48%, with Mr. Romney carrying at least 279 Electoral College votes, probably more.”

He argued that Romney has a “small but persistent polling edge,” leading in 19 of the 31 national surveys released in the last week, he said, and the GOP candidate “was at or above 50 percent in 10 polls, Obama in none.” President Barack Obama was ahead in seven of the polls, Rove said, and five were tied.

Pick a number as high as you wish. I'd be willing to bet anything Mitt Romney gets less than 300 electoral votes.

[xrayzebra]

This election is going to be so much fun. I wish now I had taken Cosmic's bet.

But the riots in the streets of some big cities aren't going to be such fun. Obama's followers are very sore losers.

[DUNCANownsKOBE]

This election is going to be so much fun. I wish now I had taken Cosmic's bet.

But the riots in the streets of some big cities aren't going to be such fun. Obama's followers are very sore losers.

So how many electoral votes is Romney gonna win? I'd be willing to bet as much as you want he gets less than 300 electoral votes.

[xrayzebra]

We shall see tomorrow. But when Barry and Stevie Wonder cant draw but 200 people, the writing is on the wall.

[MannyIsGod]

If you are wanting to bet something Xray I'm right here.

[DUNCANownsKOBE]

We shall see tomorrow. But when Barry and Stevie Wonder cant draw but 200 people, the writing is on the wall.

You seem really confident Romney will get 300+ electoral votes. Why not make some easy money off me if it's for sure?

[boutons_deux]

If you are wanting to bet something Xray I'm right here.

XZ blew all his money on Alzheimers meds co-pay.

[Drachen]

Can I get in on this action?

[MannyIsGod]

I asked first es.

[CosmicCowboy]

I actually think Romney will take the popular vote, just not the electoral vote.

[DarrinS]

Model that has correctly predicted every election since 1980, predicts Romney winning 330-208.

I'm not advocating it, just putting it out there.

http://www.colorado.edu/news/release...win-university

[ChumpDumper]

Has it been updated in the past month?

[DarrinS]

Has it been updated in the past month?

Not that I'm aware, but it's not based on polling data.

[xrayzebra]

Has it been updated in the past month?

Last time I checked Oct 4th.

According to their updated analysis, Romney is projected to receive 330 of the total 538 Electoral College votes. President Barack Obama is expected to receive 208 votes -- down five votes from their initial prediction -- and short of the 270 needed to win.

[ChumpDumper]

So are you going to take anyone's bet, x?

[xrayzebra]

Not planning on it. Would never collect from you deadbeats anyhow......

[ChumpDumper]

Not planning on it. Would never collect from you deadbeats anyhow......

So it's just all talk with you.

OK.

[Clipper Nation]

XZ blew all his money on Alzheimers meds co-pay.

[ploto]

I wonder if some people do not understand probability. Nate Silver is saying that there is an 85% chance that Obama gains enough electoral votes to win. That means that there is a 15% chance that Romney does so. On his blog, he even explains conditions that would cause Romney to win, but the chances of them happening are small.

[ElNono]

baiting senile people into bets should be illegal, tbh

[DarrinS]

I wonder if some people do not understand probability. Nate Silver is saying that there is an 85% chance that Obama gains enough electoral votes to win. That means that there is a 15% chance that Romney does so. On his blog, he even explains conditions that would cause Romney to win, but the chances of them happening are small.

It's not that -- it's what assumptions were made to come up with the 5.6:1 odds?

If they are based on a 2008 turnout model, I think his odds are waaay too high.

[ElNono]

Model that has correctly predicted every election since 1980, predicts Romney winning 330-208.

I would argue the model is making it's first actual prediction.

What has been done is validate it against data available since 1980...

[DarrinS]

There's not really any good way to judge Silver's model. The only way to judge it would be to run a large number of elections (trials) and compare the results. If you could run 100 elections, Obama should win close to 85 times and Romney close to 15 times (if Silver's model is any good). I'm sure his odds are based on running some number of "simulated" elections.

[DarrinS]

I would argue the model is making it's first actual prediction.

What has been done is validate it against data available since 1980...

Fair enough.

[ElNono]

Fair enough.

Don't get me wrong, I think it's a honest and valid attempt, and no different than any other model. They actually state in this paper that this particular election happens to be much more disputed:

The second caveat, which ties back to the first, is that a substantial number of cases depicted in figure 1 where the 90% confidence band around the state's prediction includes the 50% mark. This indicates that the two-party vote could plausibly flip to the other side of the 50-50 line on which some of these states are currently predicted to land.